New Hampshire,Maine,Minnesota and maybe Nevada,Colorado and an outside chance for Virginia.
I'd be surprised if Trump won any of these states, I'm just saying that he has a non-zero chance in MN and ME (though he would lose both states if the election were held today). Even if we ignore NH, there is really no path for him in CO or VA. NV is unlikely as well, given the Democrats' ground game there.
I mostly agree with you about VA, but I still think there's a shot for the GOP in CO. Just not with Trump or a Trump-like candidate (i.e. Tom Cotton).
Yeah, I agree. Trump was probably the worst possible Republican for CO, and I do think Kasich, Rubio and Cruz would have done better there (not sure if it would have been enough to win it, though).
CO is too secular to pick someone like Cruz.
Kasich and Rubio probably would have won it within 1-3% margin, though.
Rubio is almost as religious as Cruz.