Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

[Indian: California 07 19.7%]

From the 2022 ACS:

Czech: Nebraska 01 4.3%
Dutch: Michigan 04.  13.7%
English: Utah 03.    29.9%
German: Wisconsin 05 44.7%
Irish: Massachusetts 08 24.7%
Italian: New York 01 21.9%
Norwegian: North Dakota AL 20.5%
Polish: Illinois 06 13.8%
Portuguese: Massachusetts 04 11.3%
Swedish: Minnesota 08 9.5%
Indian: California 07 19.7%
Chinese: New York 06 23.3%
Korean: California 34 7%
Vietnamese: California 45 17.1%

California's Seventh is certainly a surprise. I fully expected it to be California's Seventeenth, which is one of the only majority-Asian districts in the country + I have anecdotal evidence since I live in the area (lived in CA-17 for a bit until redistricting pushed me into Swalwell's seat...ugh) - there are TONS of Indians here.

It was a typo, it should be CA 17.

Ah, that makes more sense.

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

From a Facebook friend:

Here's a theology lesson: For Christians,the teachings of Jesus and the New Testament presents (among other things) guidelines on how YOU should live... not on how you should control how OTHERS live. Any ‘church” that teaches otherwise is one you should run from.

Bizarre that the most obviously true part of his speech - “Being a mother and homemaker is important and rewarding, and you shouldn’t let your career get in the way of that if it’s what you really want” - is the most controversial.

Because that isn't the point he was making.

Only things I disagree with are Alaska and ME-2 being considered "safe." Just not enough data to say much at all about either.

Yeah it's not like we've any high-quality polls out of them indicating some Trump blowout, and RCV in both of them adds enough of a confounding variable that makes moving them to safe R hard to justify for me.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/16/us/elections/biden-trump-donors.html



These 2 maps show the net change in donors by county from the 2020 cycle. In general, the number of Trump donors hasn't changed much from 2020 whereas Biden has seen an increased number of donors since 2020. However, one confounding variable that in 2020 Dem donors were split between multiple candidates as the primary played out.

Another thing to consider is that it's hard to extrapolate how meaningful these giant spikes are. LA County has a giant spike as Biden has gained nearly 5000 more voters since 2020, however, in the context of a County of 10 million people, that might not be very meaningful.

With that being said, there are many aspects of this graph which align with conventional wisdom. For instance, the biggest positive Trump spikes are in places where the GOP has gained in recent cycles (Miami-Dade, Long Island) or fast growing GOP strongholds (Mohave County AZ, Horry County SC, parts of Utah and Idaho, ect).

Trump has seen declines in most of the metros that shifted hard against him in 2020 (Denver, Atlanta, Dallas, ect). I wonder if some of this is some Rs unhappy with Trump in these areas donating to Haley instead.

For Biden, the biggest spikes almost universally come from urban areas and honestly where the green spikes are seem to correlate with the 2016-->2020 swing map quite a bit. Many of the biggest spikes seem to be in white-liberal bastions like Seattle, Austin, Denver, Twin Cities, Boston, ect. whereas Dem cities with larger non-white populations haven't held up quite as well like Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, NYC, ect. Also seems like there's pretty big dropoffs in the Philly and DC areas which is interesting considering both have a lot of white liberals.

Again, because the number of donors relative to the overall population is small and likely unrepresentative, I wouldn't read into this too much but still interestingly. Also another one of those smaller metrics that at least topline suggests Biden should be fine in re-election despite polls.

Thoughts?

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

Yeah and he can't have another "can you shut up, man" line if the mics are muted.

I think that line hurt him with some people.

My ratings as of today would be this:

Either Michigan should be moved to Tilt D or Pennsylvania to toss-up.

[or]

My ratings as of today would be this:

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

I definitely don't find it "impossible" to believe those things. (I assume what he means is the he thinks it's impossible that Alito would know that. Which I also disagree with.) If he said they flew the flag upside down by mistake and corrected it as soon as they realized it that's one thing and we could debate the likelihood of that, but that's not what he said lol.