Unpopular opinion: JBE, who is benefiting from off-year turnout dynamics, a fairly weak challenger, and relatively good approval numbers. This doesn’t mean that Cooper isn’t favored, but he could definitely lose in a Republican wave year since he doesn’t have nearly as much crossover appeal as JBE (which is to a large extent offset by NC's status as a swing state, of course).
There isn’t any reason to believe that JBE is in much trouble unless you buy the usual "muh polarization"/"muh inelastic Deep South" talking points.
Agreed, I think JBE is more likely to be reelected than Cooper too, for the reasons you gave; but both are favored to be reelected imo
I voted Cooper. The above arguments hold some weight, but JBE hasn't polled over 50%. and that ought to be disconcerting.
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