Here's my list:
1. New Mexico (95% chance of flipping)
2. Illinois (80% chance of flipping)
3. Nevada (75% chance of flipping)
4. Michigan (70% chance of flipping)
5. Maine (60% chance of flipping) -- would be higher but I worry about vote splitting with independents
6. Wisconsin (50% chance of flipping)
7. Florida (50% chance of flipping)
8. Ohio (50% chance of flipping)
9. Connecticut (45% chance of flipping)
10. New Hampshire (40% chance of flipping)
11. Kansas (35% chance of flipping)
12. Maryland (35% chance of flipping)
13. Iowa (30% chance of flipping)
14. Oklahoma (25% chance of flipping)
15. Rhode Island (25% chance of flipping)
16. Alaska (20% chance of flipping)
17. Minnesota (15% chance of flipping)
18. Georgia (15% chance of flipping)
19. Colorado (10% chance of flipping)
20. Arizona (10% chance of flipping)
With all other races at a <5% chance of flipping
Agree, except I think Illinois should be lower, still >50% though.
I'd suggest 70% for IL. But OH should be below 50%. Perhaps 35-40% chance for Dems to win this seat.
