Hispanic Voting in Texas and the Southwest

[krazen1211]

Democrats argue that Hispanics come from diverse backgrounds and do not constitute a voting bloc under federal law. They also claim Hispanic voters have not been disenfranchised because the white majority has elected Hispanic candidates to statewide office.



Can we use that argument in Texas?

[Brittain33]

Democrats argue that Hispanics come from diverse backgrounds and do not constitute a voting bloc under federal law. They also claim Hispanic voters have not been disenfranchised because the white majority has elected Hispanic candidates to statewide office.



Can we use that argument in Texas?

Do Hispanic voters in Texas come from diverse backgrounds?

Have they been elected to statewide office when they've had to get through a primary first?

[krazen1211]

Democrats argue that Hispanics come from diverse backgrounds and do not constitute a voting bloc under federal law. They also claim Hispanic voters have not been disenfranchised because the white majority has elected Hispanic candidates to statewide office.



Can we use that argument in Texas?

Do Hispanic voters in Texas come from diverse backgrounds?

Have they been elected to statewide office when they've had to get through a primary first?

Certainly Texas hispanics come from a wide variety of locations, incomes, cultures, and other backgrounds.

Anthony Garza was elected as Railroad Commissioner in both a primary and general election in 1998, and he is not the only Hispanic to have served on the commission.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=222663

[Brittain33]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

[krazen1211]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

He's not the only one, no. His successor was also Hispanic, Victor Carjullo, and won both a primary and a general in 2004. Garza was merely the first.

You specifically asked for a Hispanic that had to be elected via a primary first, which excluded many Hispanics. The Democrats, to my knowledge, have not elected any Hispanics to statewide office in Texas even when they could win in Texas. In fact, I don't know of many Hispanics that have had the success of the Texas Republican Party...certainly not, say, the California Democrats.

Texas is about 38% Hispanic of course.

[edtorres04]

Dan morales was a dem.

[krazen1211]

Dan morales was a dem.

Ah, interesting. And quite coincidental as Brian Sandoval was also an elected Hispanic attorney general.

[jimrtex]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

Alberto Gonzales and Eva Guzman and Victor Carillo have won contested Republican primaries for statewide office and gone on to win in November.

[Brittain33]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

Alberto Gonzales and Eva Guzman and Victor Carillo have won contested Republican primaries for statewide office and gone on to win in November.

I had a series of snarky responses to this, but it's easier just to lay it out.

Gonzales outraised his opponent by 1,047 to 1 and was appointed by Bush to the seat before he ran for re-election. Despite the fact the seat was only nominally contested and Bush was more popular than God, he didn't break 60%.

Eva Guzman defeated another Hispanic candidate in the primary for the 9th slot out of 9 for the supreme court. Her seat was not contested by someone with an Anglo surname and the GOP had the ability to shape that.

Carillo blames his eventual loss to a guy he outraised 20-1 on his Hispanic surname. Like Gonzales, he only became the incumbent in his first election because a popular governor appointed him to the seat and threw his weight behind the candidacy.

[krazen1211]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

Alberto Gonzales and Eva Guzman and Victor Carillo have won contested Republican primaries for statewide office and gone on to win in November.

I had a series of snarky responses to this, but it's easier just to lay it out.

Gonzales outraised his opponent by 1,047 to 1 and was appointed by Bush to the seat before he ran for re-election. Despite the fact the seat was only nominally contested and Bush was more popular than God, he didn't break 60%.

Eva Guzman defeated another Hispanic candidate in the primary for the 9th slot out of 9 for the supreme court. Her seat was not contested by someone with an Anglo surname and the GOP had the ability to shape that.

Carillo blames his eventual loss to a guy he outraised 20-1 on his Hispanic surname. Like Gonzales, he only became the incumbent in his first election because a popular governor appointed him to the seat and threw his weight behind the candidacy.

Sounds like they should do more of this in Nevada before claiming that Hispanics can win statewide with ease.



Democrats argue that Hispanics come from diverse backgrounds and do not constitute a voting bloc under federal law. They also claim Hispanic voters have not been disenfranchised because the white majority has elected Hispanic candidates to statewide office.

[jimrtex]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

Alberto Gonzales and Eva Guzman and Victor Carillo have won contested Republican primaries for statewide office and gone on to win in November.

Gonzales outraised his opponent by 1,047 to 1 and was appointed by Bush to the seat before he ran for re-election. Despite the fact the seat was only nominally contested and Bush was more popular than God, he didn't break 60%.

How much did Gonzales raise (in dollars, rather than ratio)?

Most Supreme Court justices are initially appointed.  In this case, it was a Democrat who had resigned, comfortable in the choice that Governor Bush would make in choosing his successor.

60% is a quite comfortable margin in a primary.  Look at the Place 3 primary in 2010.  Primary ballots do not carry endorsements.  And some voters would have thought, based on his name, that he was a Democrat.   He received around 80% of the vote in the general election.

Eva Guzman defeated another Hispanic candidate in the primary for the 9th slot out of 9 for the supreme court. Her seat was not contested by someone with an Anglo surname and the GOP had the ability to shape that.

Rose Vela's family came to Texas from Alabama in the 1860s.  If the party hierarchy had their druthers there would not have been a primary contest.

What position was Gonzalez elected to?   Do you think that Guzman was given a lesser position because she was a woman or a Hispanic>

Carillo blames his eventual loss to a guy he outraised 20-1 on his Hispanic surname. Like Gonzales, he only became the incumbent in his first election because a popular governor appointed him to the seat and threw his weight behind the candidacy.

Maybe it was Democrat cross-over votes for KBH, especially from school teachers.

[Brittain33]

60% is a quite comfortable margin in a primary.

Disagree. When an incumbent congressman only draws 60% in a primary against a no-name, it's universally seen as a massive protest vote waiting to be harnessed by a viable candidate who could easily defeat the incumbent.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not relevant, since we are talking about low-information voters making judgments based on surname. Her surname is Spanish. I agree with you, the party recognizes the danger in primaries to vulnerable candidates, and Hispanic-surnamed candidates are inherently vulnerable.

[jimrtex]

60% is a quite comfortable margin in a primary.

Disagree. When an incumbent congressman only draws 60% in a primary against a no-name, it's universally seen as a massive protest vote waiting to be harnessed by a viable candidate who could easily defeat the incumbent.

Not in a primary for a down-ballot office, when the incumbent was appointed.  Still working on the dollar amounts?  Have you checked the Texas Ethics Commission?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not relevant, since we are talking about low-information voters making judgments based on surname. Her surname is Spanish. I agree with you, the party recognizes the danger in primaries to vulnerable candidates, and Hispanic-surnamed candidates are inherently vulnerable.

Her advertising stated that her family was from Alabama, and she wore yellow and used yellow in her campaign (Yellow Rose of Texas).   The biggest knock was that she had been elected as a Democrat as recently as 1998.

Of course, the place number means nothing.  Supreme Court judges are elected for 6-year terms.  Places 2, 4, and 6 are elected at one election; the chief justice, and 7 and 8 are elected at the next election; and 3, 5, and 9 at the next.

[Brittain33]

Her advertising stated that her family was from Alabama, and she wore yellow and used yellow in her campaign (Yellow Rose of Texas).  

Did they include her picture?

No offense, but I never know if you truly believe that the facts you trot out have implications or recognize that they are trivia. I really don't think that putting yellow on her posters when she is running in Texas, for whatever people actually saw her advertising and remembered it, is going to overrule the fact that she had a Spanish last name and that's the last thing people saw when they were in the ballot booth and had to make a decision on a race that the large majority of them knew nothing about.

Muon2: ok if you want to create a "Do Spanish surnames confer a disadvantage in TX primaries, yes/no?" thread out of the geekery going on here in the Nevada thread.

Muon2 response: Works for me.

[BigSkyBob]

Her advertising stated that her family was from Alabama, and she wore yellow and used yellow in her campaign (Yellow Rose of Texas).  

Did they include her picture?

No offense, but I never know if you truly believe that the facts you trot out have implications or recognize that they are trivia. I really don't think that putting yellow on her posters when she is running in Texas, for whatever people actually saw her advertising and remembered it, is going to overrule the fact that she had a Spanish last name and that's the last thing people saw when they were in the ballot booth and had to make a decision on a race that the large majority of them knew nothing about.

Well, there was the two Illinois Democratic primaries were the LaRouche candidates with English surnames beat the machine candidates with Slavic sounding names.

[freepcrusher]

the reaspn why VRA districts are important in Texas is because of polarized voting habits. According to DRA, the precincts where whites make up a majority gave McCain 68 percent of the vote. The precincts where whites don't gave Obama 63 percent.

[jimrtex]

Her advertising stated that her family was from Alabama, and she wore yellow and used yellow in her campaign (Yellow Rose of Texas).  

Did they include her picture?

No offense, but I never know if you truly believe that the facts you trot out have implications or recognize that they are trivia. I really don't think that putting yellow on her posters when she is running in Texas, for whatever people actually saw her advertising and remembered it, is going to overrule the fact that she had a Spanish last name and that's the last thing people saw when they were in the ballot booth and had to make a decision on a race that the large majority of them knew nothing about.

Yes. 

Elect Justice Rose Vela for Texas Supreme Court

Why would someone who stressed that it was for "Position 9" or would know the ratio of spending in an election 11 years ago, but not know the dollar amounts, wonder whether the facts had implications or not, or recognize that they are trivia?

It is interesting that her last name would have been a benefit for her appeals court race.  Her father-in-law was a federal district judge, whom the federal courthouse in Brownsville is named after, and her mother-in-law was mayor of Brownsville (who endorsed Tony Garza when he was elected Cameron County Judge).

[BigSkyBob]

the reaspn why VRA districts are important in Texas is because of polarized voting habits. According to DRA, the precincts where whites make up a majority gave McCain 68 percent of the vote. The precincts where whites don't gave Obama 63 percent.

And, if Hispanics in places like Collins County started voting like their White Neighbors, and Whites in poorer areas started voting more like their Hispanic peers, the result would less "racial polarization" in voting, but, a larger McCain majorities in "White" precincts, and a higher Obama majorities in non-White majorites.

[All Along The Watchtower]

the reaspn why VRA districts are important in Texas is because of polarized voting habits. According to DRA, the precincts where whites make up a majority gave McCain 68 percent of the vote. The precincts where whites don't gave Obama 63 percent.

And, if Hispanics in places like Collins County started voting like their White Neighbors, and Whites in poorer areas started voting more like their Hispanic peers, the result would less "racial polarization" in voting, but, a larger McCain majorities in "White" precincts, and a higher Obama majorities in non-White majorites.

What if whites started voting like their Hispanic neighbors?