CA: Field Research Corporation: Campbell (R) now ahead of Sen. Boxer (D)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California Senator by Field Research Corporation on 2010-03-15

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, I: 0%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sweet sassy molassy.

[Torie]

Let's set the election date for tomorrow! 

[Sbane]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win, unless women really come out in force for Boxer or something. Then the waiting game begins to see whether Campbell becomes just another republican drone.

[Brittain33]

I would expect Campbell to get 44% or close thereabouts, yes. Getting past that would depend on a serious Democratic electorate collapse.

[TheGlobalizer]

Feeling better about my projection of an R pickup here.  :-)

[Хahar 🤔]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win

wtf

[Guderian]

Campbell would have beaten Boxer in 1992 if he didn't split the realist vote with Sonny Bono in the primary allowing "true conservative" Bruce Herschensohn to win the Republican nomination. But Babs being Babs and not having the advantages of incumbency, she was still beatable. Of course, few days before the election voters found out that Mr. Family Values is a regular strip-bar visitor and what do you know we're stuck with "Call me Senator" for 18 years.

It's time to set that cosmic injustice straight. Campbell can win this race, as long as he makes it out of the Republican primaries.

[SvenssonRS]

It's time to set that cosmic injustice straight. Campbell can win this race, as long as he makes it out of the Republican primaries.

I doubt that'll be hard. DeVore is a wingnut and Fiorina's technical incompetence is literally hilarious.

[Vepres]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win, unless women really come out in force for Boxer or something. Then the waiting game begins to see whether Campbell becomes just another republican drone.

A candidates sex doesn't really seem to influence any voter group at the state level, at least from what I've seen.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I would expect Campbell to get 44% or close thereabouts, yes. Getting past that would depend on a serious Democratic electorate collapse.

     My experience with California electoral politics has told me that a Democratic collapse just leads to a bunch of Democrats voting Green or Peace & Freedom. For Campbell to do well, he would have to work to make inroads with the electorate, because otherwise Boxer could completely collapse & still win along the lines of 47-44.

[Sbane]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win

wtf

Maybe I was exaggerating a bit, but Campbell's chances are pretty close to 50, if not above. Of course with Carlyfornia and Devore the chances are much less for the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Boxer is going anywhere, it just shows the fluidity of the senate and governor races.  Once the Conservative GOP challenger emerge from the primaries and the issues are pretty clear on who supports the president on entitlement reform and who supports the status quo that Californians clearly support, the two Brown and Boxer will emerge the victor.

[Vepres]

I don't think Boxer is going anywhere, it just shows the fluidity of the senate and governor races.  Once the Conservative GOP challenger emerge from the primaries and the issues are pretty clear on who supports the president on entitlement reform and who supports the status quo that Californians clearly support, the two Brown and Boxer will emerge the victor.

That's terrible rationale. People could have said that about those special house elections in the south a few years back on social issues.

[Lunar]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win, unless women really come out in force for Boxer or something. Then the waiting game begins to see whether Campbell becomes just another republican drone.

A candidates sex doesn't really seem to influence any voter group at the state level, at least from what I've seen.

Technically [and this is an important distinction], he's not really making an argument about the candidate's sex but rather that of the voters'. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, the governator who has wisdom on this subject has supported moderate social issue reforms and has won 2 state wide elections and I think that will be the norm for this election. At any rate the economy is in recovery mode and the Democratic incumbants who weren't appointed or flipped I think aren't going to be in real danger.

On the other hand, CA governorship is a pure tossup.

[Sbane]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win, unless women really come out in force for Boxer or something. Then the waiting game begins to see whether Campbell becomes just another republican drone.

A candidates sex doesn't really seem to influence any voter group at the state level, at least from what I've seen.

You may be right, but there is a reason why California seems to elect a lot of women leaders. Women here like woman candidates (although it's issue based rather than solely gender identity) which is why Carly running for Senate seemed like a good idea, except she is utterly incompetent and pro-life to boot. Campbell may face some problems with this group, but I doubt it since he has pretty sane positions on social issues. He is not the prototypical republican these women like to rail against. I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't that great of a gender gap this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I would expect Campbell to get 44% or close thereabouts, yes. Getting past that would depend on a serious Democratic electorate collapse.

Pretty much I agree.

[Ronnie]

Holy moly

[cannonia]

I like the poll numbers, but show me the money.

[Sbane]

I like the poll numbers, but show me the money.

He will get more than enough money if he wins the primary.

[Vepres]

In all likelyhood Campbell will win, unless women really come out in force for Boxer or something. Then the waiting game begins to see whether Campbell becomes just another republican drone.

I doubt it. It would probably go against some of his personal views and, more importantly, his reelection prospects.