MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[publicunofficial]

I'm going to be crushed or absolutely elated tonight. The liquor will flow either way.

[kyc0705]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why 10:25 and not 10:00?

You have to count the votes before you report them, my guy.

[Figueira]

So, could I be wrong about predicting a Gianforte +3 win?

Sure, you could. Or you could be right. I think that's a solid prediction, but I'm predicting Gianforte+1.

[_]

Gianforte +5 to Quist +2

[Skunk]

I would say Gianforte +6 to Quist +6.

Could be, but I don't see Quist doing better than Bullock.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why 10:25 and not 10:00?

They could come in at 10:00, NYT is using an estimate based on when the vote actually started to come in in past elections.

[Kamala]

Exactly tied. Down to the actual vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Exactly tied. Down to the actual vote.

That would be great.  I've always wanted to see another one like this: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Closest_election_in_Senate_history.htm

[Angrie]

Exactly tied. Down to the actual vote.

That would be great.  I've always wanted to see another one like this: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Closest_election_in_Senate_history.htm

Ah, yes, all those angry New Hampshire women turned the state deep, super safe blue that year.

TBH the anger is a recent phenomenon. You can't expect to see it in results from decades ago.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

59 minutes left until the show begins.

[Sorenroy]

Is there a news channel or something to watch for results?

[GlobeSoc]

Is there a news channel or something to watch for results?

[GlobeSoc]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be clear, this is just absentees, right?

[_]

Is there a news channel or something to watch for results?

The NY Times site
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

[MT Treasurer]

So I'm going to post this for the last time. Calculating these numbers is fun.

As of 5/25, 5:49 PM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 74.2% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 76.4% of mail-ins returned

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 79.0% of mail-ins returned

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 80.1% of mail-ins returned

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 73.2% of mail-ins returned

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 80.6% of mail-ins returned

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 77.5% of mail-ins returned

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned

STATEWIDE: 75.8% of mail-ins returned

[NOVA Green]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Cool it, the vote isn't even in and you're overreacting with a blazing hot take.

Sounds like Beet has been "blazing something" which might be current legal in DC but not quite yet in Montana, maybe 2-6 years from now.

Hey--- I love Beet, but this sounded a bit OTT, especially since we haven't yet seen any votes come in yet...

[Sorenroy]

Is there a news channel or something to watch for results?

The NY Times site
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Thanks, but I meant like a live TV station.

[_]

Is there a news channel or something to watch for results?

The NY Times site
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Thanks, but I meant like a live TV station.

CNN usually has the results going, they did for GA-6 and should for today.

[NOVA Green]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

Sanders might well have "Beet" Trump in '16 in Montana....

Oops, sorry a bit late to the party, but Democratic Populists seem to do quite well in Montana overall, regardless of anything else going on elsewhere in the Country.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So....is that encouraging news for Quist?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[NOVA Green]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

Honestly, no one really knows who will win this race. It's still possible Quist wins it fairly easily.

Gianforte should win the election day vote, but the question is by how much? And how much did Quist win the early vote by? We'll find out soon enough.

Does MT break down Early Voting vs ED Voting like California does for example, or do we just need to read tea leaves based upon early returns?

Reason I'm asking has nothing really to do with any partisan interest in the outcome of this election, but rather how we crunch and understand the numbers and election returns as they roll in from Montana on this election, and future elections as well.  (Good Poly-Sci data for any of you college students out there )

[Gass3268]

About to get on a flight, won't land until midnight eastern time. Hopefully we'all have an idea where this is going by the time I land.

[NOVA Green]

2016 results for Clinton/Trump and Gianforte/Bullock by county and precinct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KOoM0pSyER-F-yDhSw6FdxS30RlFpWeviIbaa5IrVJc/edit#gid=722392603

Thanks Castro!

You rock!!!!

[Technocracy Timmy]

About to get on a flight, won't land until midnight eastern time. Hopefully we'all have an idea where this is going by the time I land.

Have a safe flight!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Gotta love Nate Silver....