Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

Here comes the "OMG Palin is kind of a joke" bounce.

[Lief 🗽]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

[J. J.]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

[Lief 🗽]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

That was a temporary reaction from Clinton supporters, that was to be expected. Bill and Hilary's forceful and enthusiastic endorsements of Obama at the convention pushed a lot of those same angered Clinton supporters back to Obama, where I think they're likely to stay (especially after McCain's insulting attempt at pandering to them with Palin).

[J. J.]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

That was a temporary reaction from Clinton supporters, that was to be expected. Bill and Hilary's forceful and enthusiastic endorsements of Obama at the convention pushed a lot of those same angered Clinton supporters back to Obama, where I think they're likely to stay (especially after McCain's insulting attempt at pandering to them with Palin).

One day, or even two (considering there is a convention bump) is not enough to make the judgment (it took me four days for Biden).

[Eraserhead]

Palin seems to be the new Alan Keyes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember how Obama was going to turn off so many voters by giving his acceptance speech in a stadium?

[Person Man]

Palin seems to be the new Alan Keyes.

Shh....don't tell Borat about her anti-semitism. He might try to make rape on her.

[patrick1]

Palin seems to be the new Alan Keyes.

Shh....don't tell Borat about her anti-semitism. He might try to make rape on her.

Do you write those bad jokes for your law review?

[Eraserhead]

I really want to see this one today.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

This latest rolling average probably does not reflect much impact of the delayed opening of the Republican National Convention now underway in St. Paul, Minn. There was little convention activity Monday night due to Hurricane Gustav, and interviewing on Tuesday was, to a large degree, completed before the major prime time speeches at the convention were televised, particularly in the Midwest and Eastern portions of the country. A review of last week's tracking during the Democratic convention shows that Obama did not begin to show major gains until the tracking averages reported on Thursday, covering the first three nights of the Denver convention. So it is possible that any potential McCain convention bounce may not be evident for a few days.

More specifically, there appears to be a great deal of anticipation for the prime time debut of the Republican vice presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin, on Wednesday night. It is possible that her speech could receive record ratings as Americans tune in to find out more about the woman who was largely unknown until last week and who has dominated news coverage since her selection last Friday. Then, of course, McCain himself makes his acceptance speech on Thursday night. The potential impact of the Palin and McCain speeches may not be seen in the tracking data until the weekend.

[Eraserhead]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

look, all the polls over Labor Day weekend should be ignored.  We won't know anything until late next week.

[Eraserhead]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

look, all the polls over Labor Day weekend should be ignored.  We won't know anything until late next week.

McCain will probably still be experiencing his convention bounce then...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

look, all the polls over Labor Day weekend should be ignored.  We won't know anything until late next week.

McCain will probably still be experiencing his convention bounce then...

then wait another week.  but Labor Day weekend is a terrible time to poll

[J. J.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

Bingo, which why I've been saying wait until 9/15 or so.  There will probably be a GOP bounce.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Overall, McCain Among GOP Women [2 Septemer, 2008]

McCain manages to increase support among women of his own party

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109975/Obama-Gains-Overall-McCain-Among-GOP-Women.aspx

Support for Presidential Candidates, by Gender among non-Hispanic white registered voters

Men

Aug 30-Sep 1: Obama 40%; McCain 53% [Aug 1-28: Obama 35%; McCain 56%]

Women

Aug 30-Sep 1: Obama 44%; McCain 48% [Aug 1-28: Obama 42%; McCain 46%]

Support for Presidential Candidates, by Gender and Party among non-Hispanic white registered voters

Men

Republican (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 6%; McCain 90% [Aug 1-28: Obama 7%; McCain 89%]
Independent (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 42%; McCain 47% [Aug 1-28: Obama 35%; McCain 51%]
Democrat (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 82%; McCain 13% [Aug 1-28: Obama 74%; McCain 18%]

Women

Republican (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 7%; McCain 90% [Aug 1-28: Obama 8%; McCain 85%]
Independent (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 46%; McCain 39% [Aug 1-28: Obama 41%; McCain 42%]
Democrat (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 82%; McCain 13% [Aug 1-28: Obama 74%; McCain 15%]

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, 2008

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Ya, looks like the Labor Day sample on both Rasmussen and Gallup has definitely not continued into today.  This sample was at maximum Obama +2 to +4 and it might even be tied (hard to tell).  The Labor Day sample falls off Friday.

[??????????]

Tonight is probably a more major event then McCains speech. But that's pretty much obvious as we all here know.

[Umengus]

This bounce business tired me. In one week, it will be +- tie.

[??????????]

Did they stop state polling the past two weeks?

[Democratic Hawk]

Will the Abortion Issue Help or Hurt McCain? [3 September, 2008]

Women divide 50% pro-choice, 43% pro-life

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110002/Will-Abortion-Issue-Help-Hurt-McCain.aspx

Abortion Stance Among Women, by Party ID

All: Pro-choice 50%; Pro-life 43%

Republican: Pro-choice 32%; Pro-life 63%
Independent: Pro-choice 51%; Pro-life 40%
Democrat: Pro-choice 57%; Pro-life 37%

Effect of Abortion Issue on Americans' Vote for Major Offices

13% say that candidate must share their views on abortion (Rep 20%; Ind 8%; Dem 14%)

49% say that abortion is one of many important factors (Rep 53%; Ind 56%; Dem 46%)

37% say abortion is not a major issue for them (Rep 25%; Ind 32%; Dem 39%)

2% No opinion

May 8-11, 2008

Preferential Preference Among Women, by Party ID

All: Obama 52%; McCain 40%

Republican: Obama 7%; McCain 89%
Independent: Obama 50%; McCain 36%
Democrat: Obama 84%; McCain 9%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, Aug. 31 - Sep. 2

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

[riceowl]

i buy it.  i seem to remember it being almost even last time we saw a poll like this.  (the pro-life/choice)