This PPP poll is much more accurate in my opinion than the one they did for the Governor's race a week or two ago. The biggest main discrepancies I noticed were that the sample was 2 points too white, and 2 points too Obama based on how it voted in 2012.
Has Erickson ever heard of paragraphs?
I read what I could before that irritated me too much, but I agree that
Kingston is their sure bet for winning the Senate seat. I also agree that if Nunn doesn't hit 50, she can't win in a run-off. From what I've heard, they're aiming for 52% in the general (which is obviously quite lofty). I think she has a great chance at doing that against Broun, and probably against Gingrey, too. I think Handel is remarkably weaker than everyone thinks she is; she did so well against Deal in the primary in 2010 because Deal is a despicable man that had just enough support from his native NE GA and the NW parts of the state he represented for nearly twenty years (which is where most of the Republican electorate is, obviously).
I've always maintained that Broun makes it to the run-off, and have even went out on a limb to say that if Gingrey were to drop out, Broun could potentially grab a majority outright on May 20th. It's looking increasingly unlikely that Gingrey will bow out, so it really depends on where the candidates make
personal impressions. I'd say around one-quarter of the state's primary audience is in my neck of the woods, which happens to be in the Chattanooga media market and is roughly split between GA, TN & AL/NC. Crickets. There is also a good chunk of Republican territory in the southern part of the state that winds up in the Jacksonville and Tallahassee media markets. It seems like none of these guys (except for Kingston) will be able to bombard all of these media markets effectively without spending tons of money reaching out-of-staters. It'll possibly be a good ol'-fashioned media war in the Atlanta media market, but they're all going to miss half of the primary electorate that way. That obviously benefits Broun, the True Conservative™.
