Closest Senate race?

[Lunar]

I don't understand this board.

I think Ohio is clearly the odds-favorite as of now, depending on how things go nationally.  Kentucky would also be a potential candidate given how close it was last time during a solid Republican year (2004) and a pipsqueak opponent.

McConnell is attempting to deny Bunning his donors in order to force him to resign, but that appears to make him even more resilient.

[Lunar]

Who will challenge him? Random Republican state assemblyman from Nye county?

Brian Krolicki, the Lieutenant Governor of Nevada, is considering a possible run and trying to lay the groundwork to mount a campaign against Reid.

And he's trying to lay the groundwork to not end up in jail

[Lunar]

Coburn really has his finger on the pulse of America, eh?  Salazar is really going to have a close election in 2010?

[Lunar]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?

A combination of that and the fact that there is really way to tell.  Who would have thought Virginia would be the closest 2006 race in 2004?  Maybe it isn't even Arnold running, maybe somebody will come out of the woodwork from Michigan or something

Yeah Fiorina's job running HP into the ground before the board paid her 42 million dollars just to leave and never come back is really going to make us excited, and she's so good at avoiding gaffes too.   Even the most of hard core capitalists should hate her for her work she did at HP

[Lunar]

Valid point and welcome to the forum.  I actually disagree with all of the pundits (TheFix at WaPo, FiveThirtyEight.com) and think that Missouri is slightly more likely to switch parties than New Hampshire in 2010.  Carnahan was an institution and she's almost certainly 75% of the reason why Bond retired this year, since she was going to challenge the seat no matter who was sitting in it.

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

I'll give you $10 if you're right.

I think 10:0 odds is being too favorable here.  I think he's beyond the asymptotic line and into the infinite abyss at this point.