NY-20 Special Election

[Rowan]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

But 100 votes ? The should check the numbers in a precinct 2 times or 3 times or 5 times on Election Night and then report it to the SBOE. Sry, but I just hate it if there are 10 different results around all the time ...

I think in the rush to get the results out as soon as possible, errors are inevitable. Most of the time these errors go unnoticed because the race isn't close enough to begin with. The only time we notice it is when we have an extremely close race like this.

[Rowan]

Update on Saratoga:

Tyler Brown, a Tedisco spokesman, said the assemblyman was up around 90 votes in the county. Democrats involved in the recount there put Tedisco's net gain in Saratoga closer to 70.

These numbers don't include any of the ballots that have been objected to, which one attorney representing Murphy's campaign estimated at around 400. They will be sent to Poughkeepsie, where they are subject to an ongoing court case scheduled to continue Monday.

http://www.politickerny.com/3023/murphy-46-latest-still-no-results-saratoga

[minionofmidas]

I think in the rush to get the results out as soon as possible, errors are inevitable. Most of the time these errors go unnoticed because the race isn't close enough to begin with. The only time we notice it is when we have an extremely close race like this.

The perfectly pointless rush, of course, being the problem.

Minor counting errors occur all the time, of course. Even hundred vote errors will occur from time to time (they ought to get spotted right away, of course, if people handling these things knew what they were doing. Unlike errors of a couple votes here or there). But such a large number of errors as this one, in a single election... sounds like the original count is done extremely carefree.

[cinyc]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 46.

Delaware, Essex, Ostego, and Rensselear have finished counting paper ballots.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041009.pdf

...except for military and overseas absentees, which will be opened on the 14th, and any objected-to ballots, which will be decided by the court in Poughkeepsie.

The Poughkeepsie Journal count had more of the Columbia County absentees in (and more Rensselear votes for Tedisco, for some reason).   Using the PJ's Columbia County numbers, Murphy would be up by 88.  Adding the unexplainable vote difference in Rennselaer, Murphy would be up by 79.

[cinyc]

Update on Saratoga:

Tyler Brown, a Tedisco spokesman, said the assemblyman was up around 90 votes in the county. Democrats involved in the recount there put Tedisco's net gain in Saratoga closer to 70.

These numbers don't include any of the ballots that have been objected to, which one attorney representing Murphy's campaign estimated at around 400. They will be sent to Poughkeepsie, where they are subject to an ongoing court case scheduled to continue Monday.

http://www.politickerny.com/3023/murphy-46-latest-still-no-results-saratoga

That's good news for Murphy.  Tedisco is going to get crushed in the Columbia County absentees, which are majority Democrat.  90 votes will be easy to overcome.  Tedisco has to hope the objected-to Saratoga ballots are overwhelmingly pro-Tedisco.

[Rowan]

Update on Saratoga:

Tyler Brown, a Tedisco spokesman, said the assemblyman was up around 90 votes in the county. Democrats involved in the recount there put Tedisco's net gain in Saratoga closer to 70.

These numbers don't include any of the ballots that have been objected to, which one attorney representing Murphy's campaign estimated at around 400. They will be sent to Poughkeepsie, where they are subject to an ongoing court case scheduled to continue Monday.

http://www.politickerny.com/3023/murphy-46-latest-still-no-results-saratoga

That's good news for Murphy.  Tedisco is going to get crushed in the Columbia County absentees, which are majority Democrat.  90 votes will be easy to overcome.  Tedisco has to hope the objected-to Saratoga ballots are overwhelmingly pro-Tedisco.

They are less than halfway done counting Saratoga.

[Rowan]

Update:

Washington attorney and former President Reagan White House counsel David Nolan has been acting as a volunteer attorney for the Tedisco campaign, and says though the numbers are currently going in Murphy’s favor, the Democrat has not widened the gap enough in the county to pull out a victory in the entire 20th District.

“How I see it, is that Columbia County is make or break,” Nolan said Thursday night. “I think we are over the top and have weathered the storm.”

Nolan says the republicans have been making most of the challenges over the past two days and the majority have been related to ballots from people who are registered to vote in Columbia County but whose driver’s licenses state that they live in New York City.

Nolan said it is his estimation that Murphy will need to carry 66 to 75 percent of the vote in Columbia County to top Tedisco district-wide.

http://www.registerstar.com/articles/2009/04/10/news/news01.txt

[cinyc]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

But 100 votes ? The should check the numbers in a precinct 2 times or 3 times or 5 times on Election Night and then report it to the SBOE. Sry, but I just hate it if there are 10 different results around all the time ...

And there still would be errors because someone can't add - especially since the candidates were on 5 different party lines that needed to be summed up in the press'  results.  Someone misplaces a digit or transposes them.  Someone reads off the wrong line on the back of the machine (more likely in a general election, where there are multiple candidates, than a special election, but still possible).  Or, as usual, they play a game of telephone to get the results out to the press, and someone along the way gets it wrong.  

Errors in the quick count are inevitable.

[justfollowingtheelections]

This is so turning into Minnesota...

[cinyc]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

[Rowan]

The BIG news so far is that Tedisco is leading those Warren ballots. Murphy won Warren big so if Tedisco can win or at least keep it close there, he has to like his chances.

[Rowan]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

What Poughkeepsie numbers? If they were valid I'm sure they would have been reported to the state by now.

[cinyc]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

What Poughkeepsie numbers? If they were valid I'm sure they would have been reported to the state by now.

Numbers from an article published last night by the Poughkeepsie Journal newspaper.  They were right on the money with the Rensselaer County missing Tedisco votes.  They probably independently contacted the Columbia County Board of Elections for their higher count.  The Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential blog had the Essex County numbers before the State BOE did.

Exercise caution on the Warren County numbers.  Only half is in - and Republicans may have made a bunch of objections that decreased Murphy's count.  Same in Otsego - the other county where Tedisco is performing better than the machine count.  Many votes were objected to, so things might not be as good for Tedisco as they may appear.

[Torie]

Hopefully this count will drag on for months with multiple lawsuits. Maybe we can get a Bush v. Gore redux or something. I mean, this site is starved for elections, and we need to make this one last! 

[Rowan]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

What Poughkeepsie numbers? If they were valid I'm sure they would have been reported to the state by now.

Numbers from an article published last night by the Poughkeepsie Journal newspaper.  They were right on the money with the Rensselaer County missing Tedisco votes.  They probably independently contacted the Columbia County Board of Elections for their higher count.  The Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential blog had the Essex County numbers before the State BOE did.

Exercise caution on the Warren County numbers.  Only half is in - and Republicans may have made a bunch of objections that decreased Murphy's count.  Same in Otsego - the other county where Tedisco is performing better than the machine count.  Many votes were objected to, so things might not be as good for Tedisco as they may appear.

The Poughkeepsie numbers now match the state numbers.

http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/article/20090411/NEWS01/904110320

[justfollowingtheelections]

Hopefully this count will drag on for months with multiple lawsuits. Maybe we can get a Bush v. Gore redux or something. I mean, this site is starved for elections, and we need to make this one last! 

That's not even funny

[Eraserhead]

Hopefully this count will drag on for months with multiple lawsuits. Maybe we can get a Bush v. Gore redux or something. I mean, this site is starved for elections, and we need to make this one last! 

That's not even funny

It's not funny but it is true.

[cinyc]

Update:

Scott Murphy (D):   77,907
Jim Tedisco (R):     77,882
Difference:       25

The only new results added were from Greene County -  both in the machine and absentee counts.  We're still waiting on more from Columbia County and all of Saratoga and Washington Counties.

[Lunar]

Democratic sources are saying 60% of the contested absentees are from the Tedisco campaign, but that's not necessarily unexpected since ballot errors are more likely to come from Democratic correlations.  They're also complaining that Tedisco is disproportionately contesting Jewish last names.

Also, the Tedisco campaign is contesting cases where the absentee is filed from a residence outside of the district - making the questionable argument that the primary residence has to be in NY-20.  I think election law strongly favor's Murphy's argument that as long as they are only registered in one district, owning multiple houses is not a disqualification, but there's some wiggle room here

[cinyc]

Democratic sources are saying 60% of the contested absentees are from the Tedisco campaign, but that's not necessarily unexpected since ballot errors are more likely to come from Democratic correlations.  They're also complaining that Tedisco is disproportionately contesting Jewish last names.

Also, the Tedisco campaign is contesting cases where the absentee is filed from a residence outside of the district - making the questionable argument that the primary residence has to be in NY-20.  I think election law strongly favor's Murphy's argument that as long as they are only registered in one district, owning multiple houses is not a disqualification, but there's some wiggle room here

One reason why the Republicans filed suit in Poughkeepsie is because it's in the Second Department of New York's intermediate appeals court (unlike most of the rest of NY-20, which is in the Third Department).  The "clear"decision to which you refer comes from the Third Department, not the Second.  If the case is decided the other way,  there could theoretically be a circuit split, ultimately needing mending by New York's highest court.

And the Murphy campaign is assuming these voters are only registered in one district, and didn't vote in New York City since they last registered in Columbia County.  That probably would invalidate their absentee votes, even under the most generous reading of New York election law.

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 56.

Columbia County counted more ballots where Tedisco is getting killed. I really don't see how Tedisco wins this.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041409.pdf

[Lunar]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

[Rowan]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

It won't last long. Columbia, Warren, Dutchess, Washington still have to count ballots too.

[Zarn]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

It won't last long. Columbia, Warren, Dutchess, Washington still have to count ballots too.

I thought they had to count the overseas, still.

[Rowan]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

It won't last long. Columbia, Warren, Dutchess, Washington still have to count ballots too.

I thought they had to count the overseas, still.

Only 205 military ballots came back, and around 200 "federal" ballots. Most likely the military will break for the Republican and the federal will break for the Democrat, it being a wash.