The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Cliffy]

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

[pepper11]

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

That document says its down 21K

[Cliffy]

I'm saying versus sametime in 2008.  Also translates to down 15%

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

That document says its down 21K

[Cliffy]

romney up 36k in Co, not counting independents

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/01/file_attachments/172596/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B01%2B2012.pdf

[Cliffy]

Republicans look poised to take Washoe county, if they continue what they are doing in Clark we actually have a decent shot at Nevada, I didn't expect that.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/01/another-day-another-washoe-county-win-for-republicans-in-early-voting/

Dems up 55k in Clark, going to be close.
http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/democratic-lead-clark-55000-washoe-remains-tight#.UJM9mYZyhSh

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In the past, Washoe determined the winner of Nevada. However it is possible, that Washoe could go say Romney by 4 or 5 and still have Obama win Nevada based on Clark alone. Nevada is a state that is rapidly changing.

It does bode better for Heller though, since he probably will outrun Romney a greater then his statewide outrunning, in Washoe.

[Torie]

In the past, Washoe determined the winner of Nevada. However it is possible, that Washoe could go say Romney by 4 or 5 and still have Obama win Nevada based on Clark alone. Nevada is a state that is rapidly changing.

It does bode better for Heller though, since he probably will outrun Romney a greater then his statewide outrunning, in Washoe.

For what it is worth, I suspect the cow counties in NV will swing to Romney from 2008 by more than Washoe does.

[5280]

romney up 36k in Co, not counting independents

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/01/file_attachments/172596/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B01%2B2012.pdf

GOP ahead in all swing counties still.  I think Romney will win CO around 45-49% of the vote.

[greenforest32]

Where are the Arizona early voting numbers? It's pretty quiet for a state that had 53% of its votes cast early in 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

Big day for Dems in Clark, as they added 6000 to their margin and are now over 60k total. Republicans netted about 200 votes in Washoe and it's still basically tied there. Early voting ends tomorrow.

[Adam Griffin]

Excellent:

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Cherokee County, GA 2008: 93,973 voters; 74.8% McCain

If turnout is this bad in just a few of these Republican bastions, it could seriously make a difference. A drop in Cherokee from 95,000 to 75,000 would come very close to being a 10% reduction in the total 2008 margin.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: I went through the latest release of raw data and extracted the results from some of the largest and/or more interesting Georgia counties thus far.

As of 11:30 AM 11/1/12:

Fulton - 142,958
Dekalb - 132,316
Cobb - 93,977
Gwinnett - 85,036
Henry - 52,362
Clayton - 45,335
Cherokee - 42,481
Chatham - 31,681
Richmond - 30,139
Muscogee - 29,817
Douglas - 26,098
Hall - 22,809
Bibb - 21,669
Newton - 21,617
Lowndes - 20,157
Clarke - 16,142
Floyd - 12,638
Whitfield - 9,488

5-County Metro ATL Total: 499,632
Georgia Total: 1,478,546

[Holmes]

Big day for Dems in Clark, as they added 6000 to their margin and are now over 60k total. Republicans netted about 200 votes in Washoe and it's still basically tied there. Early voting ends tomorrow.

I'm sure that's what Obama was hoping for when he campaigned there the other day.

[Ljube]

Big day for Dems in Clark, as they added 6000 to their margin and are now over 60k total. Republicans netted about 200 votes in Washoe and it's still basically tied there. Early voting ends tomorrow.

I'm sure that's what Obama was hoping for when he campaigned there the other day.

Campaigning obviously matters. A lot.

[krazen1211]

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)


This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

More surging by the Republican party!


Nov 1, 2012:

D: 1083235 (48.0%)
R: 718559 (31.9%)
O: 451494 (20.0%)

W: 1528802 (67.8%)
B: 618752 (27.4%)
O: 110362 (4.9%)

Oct 30, 2008:

D: 1118195 (52.5%)
R: 630585 (29.6%)
I: 379666 (17.9%)

W: 1472676 (69.1%)
B: 570460 (26.8%)
O: 86603 (4.1%)

[Skill and Chance]

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)


This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

More surging by the Republican party!


Nov 1, 2012:

D: 1083235 (48.0%)
R: 718559 (31.9%)
O: 451494 (20.0%)

W: 1528802 (67.8%)
B: 618752 (27.4%)
O: 110362 (4.9%)

Oct 30, 2008:

D: 1118195 (52.5%)
R: 630585 (29.6%)
I: 379666 (17.9%)

W: 1472676 (69.1%)
B: 570460 (26.8%)
O: 86603 (4.1%)

NC is probably gone.  I'd still want to know how many of the other 4-5% were McCain Dixiecrats, though.  The fact that the electorate in a big state is coming in at least 1% more diverse than 2008 is a good sign for Obama nationally.

[krazen1211]

But where did the 100K go?  They were probably indies who wanted to caucus for Obama or Hillary in 2008.  Many of them would also want to caucus for Romney or Santorum this time around, knowing that Obama was unchallenged.

Some moved, some died, some perhaps became indies or Republicans. 20k just registered this month. But the raw number of Indies is down.


Here is voter registration in 2008:

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2008/CongNov08.pdf


D: 698839
R: 592397
I: 711705


http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2012/CongNov12.pdf

D: 628043
R: 629443
I: 694558



Certainly the number of partisans is a wash.

[krazen1211]

NC is probably gone.  I'd still want to know how many of the other 4-5% were McCain Dixiecrats, though.  The fact that the electorate in a big state is coming in at least 1% more diverse than 2008 is a good sign for Obama nationally.

Tough to say. By the age distribution the 18-44 demographic is down 7% compared to the end of EV in 2008. Seniors are up 17%. It's the 18-44 white Democrats who are presumably gone.

[5280]

Colorado

Total ballots cast as of November 2: 1,462,163
 
R – 547,150 (37.4%)
 
D – 509,091 (34.8%)
 
U – 390,875 (26.7%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/02/file_attachments/172876/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B02%2B2012.pdf

[krazen1211]

Still looking good.


D: 1296808 (42.5%)
R: 1238152 (40.6%)
I: 517000 (16.9%)

Florida is pretty static.

R: 1396031 (40.3%)
D: 1471862 (42.5%)
I: 595634 (17.2%)

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

All Obama Counties in Tennessee

2008: 36,144
2012: 25,317

Change: -30%

All McCain Counties in Tennessee (except Henry which has not reported 2012EV totals):

2008: 71,846
2012: 94,588

Change: +31.7%

From here that included links to the TN SoS official early voting data:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330857/dramatic-shifts-early-voting-tennessee-north-carolina

[Skill and Chance]

All Obama Counties in Tennessee

2008: 36,144
2012: 25,317

Change: -30%

All McCain Counties in Tennessee (except Henry which has not reported 2012EV totals):

2008: 71,846
2012: 94,588

Change: +31.7%

From here that included links to the TN SoS official early voting data:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330857/dramatic-shifts-early-voting-tennessee-north-carolina

Further supports my expectation of a 2:1 Romney win here.

[Brittain33]

Big day for Dems in Clark, as they added 6000 to their margin and are now over 60k total. Republicans netted about 200 votes in Washoe and it's still basically tied there. Early voting ends tomorrow.

I'm sure that's what Obama was hoping for when he campaigned there the other day.

Campaigning obviously matters. A lot.

Yeah, one of the counties way up there in Ohio is Belmont County, where Paul Ryan had a rally.

[J. J.]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.3%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.4%

Iowa today:

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%
   

The final gap in 2008 was 18 points.  It is now 10.8, and consistently declining.

[pepper11]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.3%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.4%

Iowa today:

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%
   

The final gap in 2008 was 18 points.  It is now 10.8, and consistently declining.

But Marist says Obama is winning early voters by 30 points. Trust  the polls, not the votes.