German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

1%? You're being very optimistic (pessimistic for them). I don't see how they can crack 5%, but 1% should not be a problem.

Three years ago the NPD got 0.4% (with the DVU not running).

[minionofmidas]

Schill got 0.9% though, much of that from their kind of voter.
Plus of course, back then the NPD was lying low in fear of getting banned. They're much stronger as an organization now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Schill got 0.9% though, much of that from their kind of voter.

Some Schill members would become furious hearing this. Well, on the other hand some would probably only pretending to get furious.

Schill got 0.9% though, much of that from their kind of voter.
Plus of course, back then the NPD was lying low in fear of getting banned. They're much stronger as an organization now.

Maybe... but I see them at 1%.

[Cubby]

I remember the New York Times saying within the past 2 years that Germany at the present time resembles Britain in the 1970's, and seems on the verge of a Thatcher-like revolution in politics.

My ancestors are from Saxony, on the Eastern border. Who does that Lander usually vote for in national elections?

2nd Question- Why did the CDU/CSU run Edmund Stoiber in 2002 instead of Angela Merkel? Did she refuse to run then or did the party not want her? Supposedly she has kept in touch with the Bush Administration over the past few years, I hope she doesn't take any advice from them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember the New York Times saying within the past 2 years that Germany at the present time resembles Britain in the 1970's

No it's nothing like that at all. By the late '70's the underlying economic problems had been more-or-less solved; what did for Labour was a wave of public sector strikes and the minor parties voting like "turkeys voting for an early Christmas" in a vote of no-confidence.

[Rural Radical]

Is there a map showing the current state of the parties ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a map showing the current state of the parties ?

Results of the last election in the direct seats:

[Middle-aged Europe]

My ancestors are from Saxony, on the Eastern border. Who does that Lander usually vote for in national elections?

The CDU/CSU has its strongholds in the southern states: Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg in the west, Saxony and Thuringia in the east. Of course, you should be careful to speak of "strongholds" with respect to the territory of the former GDR (East Germany). Voting behaviour is still far more violatile there. North of those four states the CDU is generally strong in the rural areas.

In contrast the SPD does best in the cities, especially in densely populated and highly industrialized areas, such as the Ruhr Area. Speaking of states, the SPD´s most important strongholds are North Rhine-Westphalia in the west and Brandenburg in the east. Of course the latest election in NRW raises the question whether this is still the case there.

The Greens do well in the cities too. And the larger the city the better for the party. Their most important strongholds are probably Berlin and Hamburg, the two most populous cities in Germany. Looking at the national distribution of the Greens´ vote they generally tend to be much stronger in the west than in the east (former GDR).

The same could be said about the FDP. They´re also much stronger in the west, with relatively weak showings in the east. They do best in the states of Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and some areas of NRW.

The PDS is generally strong in the whole east and virtually non-existent in the western states. Their most important stronghold is the eastern part of Berlin.




Maps showing the regional destribution of the party´s votes in the 2002 election:


SPD



CDU/CDU



Greens



FDP



PDS

2nd Question- Why did the CDU/CSU run Edmund Stoiber in 2002 instead of Angela Merkel? Did she refuse to run then or did the party not want her? Supposedly she has kept in touch with the Bush Administration over the past few years, I hope she doesn't take any advice from them.

Merkel already wanted to run in 2002, that´s for sure. Actually, she and Stoiber were the two frontrunners for the position of the CDU´s candidate for chancellor back then. So, why Stoiber instead of Merkel? Well, my take would be that Stoiber was much more popular among the party´s leadership as well as the base. Merkel was probably the more "electable" of the two, but not so popular in the party, especially among the CDU´s conservatives.

[Colin]

Is there a map showing the current state of the parties ?

Results of the last election in the direct seats:

What does the shading represent? I'm guessing percentage of popular vote but if somebody could give me some sort of key, or translate the German, that would be great.

[Jake]

rel - means less than 50%
abs - means greater than 50%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some remarks on the geographic distribution of political parties.

I have my own experience about Low Saxony north west germany.

The division to rural and urban does not make difference in that state. The CDU is very strong in catholic Olldenburger Münsterland
(that darker blue seat  second next to Dutch border. Contrary Friesland (the most north western seat in country)) that is pretty rural two is allways very SPD.  In Göttingen area that I know best catholic cities like Duderstadt are CDU even in Heydays of Schroeder.

The most of state seems rather bellwether area.

 

That´s correct. Of course my remarks consisted of generalizations of voting behaviour.

In addition to a urban/rural divide there´s also a catholic/protestant divide, with catholics voting for CDU/CSU more often than protestants ( who are leaning more to the SPD). This is of course a generalization too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

States where the SPD did best in 2002:
1) Bremen (48.6%)
2) Lower Saxony (47.8%)
3) Brandenburg (46.4%)

States where the SPD did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (26.1%)
2) Saxony (33.3%)
3) Baden-Württemberg (33.5%)




States where the CDU/CSU did best in 2002:
1) Bavaria (58.6%)
2) Baden-Württemberg (42.8%)
3) Rhineland-Palatinate (40.2%)

States where the CDU/CSU did worst in 2002:
1) Brandenburg (22.3%)
2) Bremen (24.5%)
3) Berlin (25.9%)




States where the Greens did best in 2002:
1) Hamburg (16.2%)
2) Bremen (15.0%)
3) Berlin (14.6%)

States where the Greens did worst in 2002:
1) Saxony-Anhalt (3.4%)
2) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (3.5%)
3) Thuringia (4.3%)




States where the FDP did best in 2002:
1) North Rhine-Westphalia & Rhineland-Palatinate (both 9.3%)
2) Hesse (8.2%)
3) Schleswig-Holstein (8.0%)

States where the FDP did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (4.5%)
2) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (5.4%)
3) Brandenburg (5.8%)




States where the PDS did best in 2002:
1) Brandenburg (17.2%)
2) Thuringia (17.0%)
3) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (16.3%)

States where the PDS did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (0.7%)
2) Baden-Württemberg (0.9%)
3) Lower Saxony & Rhineland-Palatinate (both 1.0%)




For a map with the location of the states: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_Germany

[Cubby]

Thanks for the information and maps Old Europe. Its funny how Bavaria is so overwhelmingly CDU/SU. Someone I who has been there called it the "Texas of Germany".

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

I wonder what the point of the FDP is. Is it a protestant or secular version of the CDU? They are both center-right parties if I remember correctly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thanks for the information and maps Old Europe. Its funny how Bavaria is so overwhelmingly CDU/SU. Someone I who has been there called it the "Texas of Germany".

How true. Although the "Bible Belt of Germany" would probably fit it even better.

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

No, not really, considering how secular the east is. I would say that Saxony´s support for the CDU stems mainly from the popularity of the first minister-president (prime minister) after the end of the GDR, Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who governed the state from 1990 to 2002. He basically turned Saxony into a CDU stronghold. Interestingly, the CDU lost its absolute majority (+50%) in the first state election after Biedenkopf´s resignation. So, we will have too see whether Saxony will stay so strongly pro-CDU in the future or not.

I wonder what the point of the FDP is. Is it a protestant or secular version of the CDU? They are both center-right parties if I remember correctly.

No, I wouldn´t say so. Speaking in American terms, the FDP is basically a libertarian party, although a moderate one (compared to the U.S. Libertarian Party). The FDP is also often seen as the party of "the well off", despite past efforts to change this image.

[Banana Republic]

Is the FDP as economically conservative as the GOP claims to be?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the FDP as economically conservative as the GOP claims to be?

I have no idea what the GOP claims, but I can confirm that the FDP is probably the most conservative (or libertarian) party on economic issues in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some news from the campaign:

1) The chances of an alliance between PDS and WASG have decreased. The WASG wants too see a formal merger of both parties before the election, while the PDS thinks there´s not enough time left for such a process. Instead, WASG candidates should run on the PDS´s list, a suggestion which is opposed by the WASG.

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

[minionofmidas]

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

No, not really, considering how secular the east is. I would say that Saxony´s support for the CDU stems mainly from the popularity of the first minister-president (prime minister) after the end of the GDR, Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who governed the state from 1990 to 2002. He basically turned Saxony into a CDU stronghold. Interestingly, the CDU lost its absolute majority (+50%) in the first state election after Biedenkopf´s resignation. So, we will have too see whether Saxony will stay so strongly pro-CDU in the future or not.

Same thing with the CDU districts in the NE corner of the state...Berndt Seite and Angela Merkel forged loyalties there.
The CDU district in Thuringia, though, is due to the religious divide. That's the one major Catholic area in the East.

[Cubby]

Some news from the campaign:

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

If they want to form a coalition why would they deliberately antagonize another party? Does a grand coalition mean CDU+SPD or is it between all the parties?

Its sad to see the famous "Red/Green" Coalition breakup this way

[minionofmidas]

Some news from the campaign:

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

If they want to form a coalition why would they deliberately antagonize another party? Does a grand coalition mean CDU+SPD or is it between all the parties?

Its sad to see the famous "Red/Green" Coalition breakup this way

"Grand Coalition" means CDU and SPD.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's WASG? I'm under the impression this is the party I'd vote for, although it'd probably depend on what district I lived in.

I actually do have a little bit of Germany ancestry from my mother's side, her maiden name was "Ebert". Is that a German name? Sounds like it could be but I'm not sure. And if so can you identify what region it'd be from? I'm assuming it'd be one of the Catholic ones with her being raised Catholic.

[minionofmidas]

Ebert is a German name. Most Germans' names can't be clued to a region. Tho' the most famous Ebert in German history was certainly a Protestant. Friedrich Ebert, Social Democrat President of Germany from 1919 to 1925.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's WASG? I'm under the impression this is the party I'd vote for, although it'd probably depend on what district I lived in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASG

[Middle-aged Europe]

News:

1) "Ceasefire" between SPD and Greens: The recriminations between the two parties came to a halt and relations within the governing coalition have improved a bit this week.

2) According to recent polls the CDU/CSU could win a absolute majority (more than 50% of the seats) in the election, thus eleminating the necessity of a coalition with the FDP. Of course, you should keep in mind that the CDU/CSU often held a absolute majority in opinion polls, but only for one time in reality... back in 1957. Meaning: Until election day the CDU´s numbers could (and probably will) have dropped by some points.

3) Today, Gregor Gysi officially announced his attention to run as the PDS´s main candidate, which probably increases the chance for the  return of the party into the Bundestag. Nothing new from the WASG however.

[minionofmidas]

...except for interviews in the Frankfurter Rundschau, where Lothar Bisky and some WASG guy both say there are talks, there are problems, and the chance of a joint list is about 50/50. The WASG guy adds about 20% of the membership have grave misgivings about the idea and he fears many of them might actually leave if it goes through.