MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

He did roughly up until September and kept arguing that the polls were all wrong because of the power of the Almighty Bradley Effect or something. He then admitted Obama would win Pennsylvania but still kept arguing that it would be a lot closer than the polls showed and that he would do worse than Kerry in Philadelphia because of his anecdotal evidence. All of it of course ended up being garbage.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

He did roughly up until September and kept arguing that the polls were all wrong because of the power of the Almighty Bradley Effect or something. He then admitted Obama would win Pennsylvania but still kept arguing that it would be a lot closer than the polls showed and that he would do worse than Kerry in Philadelphia because of his anecdotal evidence. All of it of course ended up being garbage.

many people thought PA would be closer than the polls, myself included.

So you're yet another believe in that Almighty All Powerful Bradley Effect?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's reading the three elections as:

-PA-13 2004
-Santorum 2006
-McCain in Pennsylvania 2008

Basically the three notorious ones that he blew big time.

the problem is, Phil didn't blow PA 2008, he never claimed McCain would win, even if he probably hoped and prayed for it.

He did roughly up until September and kept arguing that the polls were all wrong because of the power of the Almighty Bradley Effect or something. He then admitted Obama would win Pennsylvania but still kept arguing that it would be a lot closer than the polls showed and that he would do worse than Kerry in Philadelphia because of his anecdotal evidence. All of it of course ended up being garbage.

many people thought PA would be closer than the polls, myself included.

So you're yet another believe in that Almighty All Powerful Bradley Effect?

BRTD, go away.

Anyway, Phil did not, as I recall, predict Pennsylvania to be anything but substantially Obama at the end. He didn't do so earlier, but, if we're going to sing the praises of dynamic models, we have to at least allow him to change his predictions. BRTD I suspect is conflating blue PA avatars a bit in his rush.

I admitted Phil did switch to predicting an Obama victory, but even then he continued to argue about all those hordes of Democrats in his neighborhood who said they wouldn't vote for him and how he would underperform in Philly as a result. And while he did drop the idiotic Bradley Effect worship unlike his fellow Republican from Philly, he was a big advocate of it earlier (even saying that I was as "horse's ass" if I rejected the idea of any Bradley Effect in PA.) Really though it's moot since no one was attacking him on it, he just jumped to conclusions seeing the "three elections" remark read as a sarcastic attack.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Really though it's moot since no one was attacking him on it, he just jumped to conclusions seeing the "three elections" remark read as a sarcastic attack.

And you're even more of a dope for thinking that someone would think "nailing" three elections meant incorrectly predicting the outcome.

I assumed you were reading it as a sarcastic attack. If that wasn't the case then explain why you found it so offensive.

On a side note I'll admit my sarcastic Bradley Effect comments here were a little out of line as the only person on the forum who still views it that way hasn't posted in this thread.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL.

If Franken comes out ahead though, he'll probably consider it moot and opt not to push for their counting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think he should still push for it. Better to count all the votes and lose because of it and lose than to advocate not counting perfectly valid votes...which is what he would be doing if he backs off on the issue at this point.

He won't lose because of it. If Coleman thinks that's even possible, he will then, but clearly Coleman doesn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not really up to Franken at this point anyway though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What Coleman is referring to is the 113 ballots that simply went missing in a Minneapolis precinct. At first it was assumed those ballots were initially just counted twice, but then it was proven the numbers don't add up. So as strange as it sounds, those ballots did simply go missing. The Canvassing Board has basically agreed to just use the original count in that precinct. Coleman however continues to cling to the argument they were double counted. His arguments really are similar to J. J.'s Bradley Effect arguments and just as taken seriously by anyone besides his campaign, but it's his last argument.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I see Coleman was a WAY bigger embarrassment to my state than Franken.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There were no coattails. Both Franken and Coleman underran their party's presidential nominees.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have another reason to go to church tonight!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interestingly enough the church I was just at might've contained enough people inside to give Franken his margin of victory (Considering the location, it being basically endorsed by the City Pages, and the overall lean of theology....)

Hell the Lawrence Arms show I went to Friday might've had enough people inside to give Franken his margin of victory. As would've the audience when I saw Milk. My workplace might even...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democrats could just get the 60th seat from an Obama state (Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire all come to mind.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Won't matter if the GOP manages to seriously botch a seat, like they've done every election since 2004. Imagine for example if Voinovich retires and the GOP nominates Ken Blackwell to replace him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Stop depressing me, Lunar.

As a Democrat, I didn't want him to win either. 

Yeah, you're some Democrat.

Lunar is a Democrat like Mint is a Democrat.

At least Lunar votes for Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Franken any crazier than Inhofe? Does Inhofe scare away potential Republican voters?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's amusing is this is really yet another victory for Nate Silver. Sure he wasn't exactly dead-on with his 27 votes projection, but was closer than anyone who mocked him for it and predicted a Coleman victory. (Remember his projection wasn't including the absentees) Republicans can keep bashing the guy but until he majorly flubs something they'll be the ones with egg on their faces.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's amusing is this is really yet another victory for Nate Silver. Sure he wasn't exactly dead-on with his 27 votes projection, but was closer than anyone who mocked him for it and predicted a Coleman victory. (Remember his projection wasn't including the absentees) Republicans can keep bashing the guy but until he majorly flubs something they'll be the ones with egg on their faces.

What was the result without absentees?

Franken +48

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys are taking what Vander Blubb says seriously. Big mistake there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

assert that homeschooling should be illegal,

Never heard a sane person who was not an American citizen claim any different.

So Gully isn't sane? I agree totally.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No kidding. I'm just saying, both camps were so picky during this whole thing... actually, wouldn't it be better for a third party to look through the ballots? I know no one is really 100% objective, but it's better than being openly bias...

Well unfortunately you don't sit on the Minnesota Supreme Court, because they developed the rules here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ITT: Gully admits I was right all along.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ITT: Gully admits I was right all along.

NO.

I still don't support public education, my fear is what that abolishing it would greatly increase class differences at least in the Anglo-Saxon world where class and education (in the modern, liberal sense) are closely linked together. Actually that's hardly the only reason. Though I still believe that keeping most kids in education after 12yrs of age is pointless and unneccesary.

LMAO. So now you're a child labor advocate. I was in school until 24, and I know people who'll be in it even longer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ITT: Gully admits I was right all along.

NO.

I still don't support public education, my fear is what that abolishing it would greatly increase class differences at least in the Anglo-Saxon world where class and education (in the modern, liberal sense) are closely linked together. Actually that's hardly the only reason. Though I still believe that keeping most kids in education after 12yrs of age is pointless and unneccesary.

LMAO. So now you're a child labor advocate. I was in school until 24, and I know people who'll be in it even longer.

Yes, and look at what you have achieved! Thanks for proving my point.

A lot more than I would've achieved ending school at 12. What could I do then besides flip burgers? You must have a high school diploma to get hired at my job and a degree helps (as it did in my case.)

Btw define "Child Labour"?

Anything currently prohibited under child labor laws, like employing 12-year olds full time (which you call for.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's saying that he'll do that as long as everything isn't complete or whatever. Though if the Canvassing Board certifies Franken as the winner, it becomes weak to argue we need to wait for Coleman's time-wasting lawsuits to go through. Besides, I doubt Conryn would argue the same thing about Florida 2000. Once Katherine Harris certified Bush as the winner (the equivalent of the Canvassing Board certifying Franken), it was over according to Republicans and Gore was just being a sore loser.

Though if the Canvassing Board certifies Franken and there's still outstanding lawsuits, it'll only take one or two GOP crossovers to end the filibuster.