German Elections & Politics

[solarstorm]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.



G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

[solarstorm]

SPD



red1: 53.4%
red2: >50%
red3: >45.7%
red4: <45.7%
red5: 37.2%

[solarstorm]

CDU



gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%

[solarstorm]

Greens



green1: 21.9%
green2: >12.3%
green3: <12.3%
green4: 6.9%

[solarstorm]

Left



violet1: 17.7%
violet2: >8.51%
violet3: >8.51%
violet4: 4.2%

[solarstorm]

FDP



yellow1: 12,5%
yellow2: >7.4%
yellow3: <7.4%
yellow4: 4.2%

[solarstorm]

AfD



blue1: 8.742%
blue2: >6.1%
blue3: <6.1%
blue4: 3.0%

[solarstorm]

Pirates



orange1: 2.7%
orange2: >1.6%
orange3: <1.6%
orange4: 0.7%

[solarstorm]

NPD



brown1: 0.60%
brown2: >0.32%
brown3: <0.32%
brown4: 0.04%

[solarstorm]

I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...

And it's getting even worse:

They need to surpass the 5% threshold in only one of the Land's two cities, Bremen and Bremerhaven.
Consequently, they're likely to make it into the Bremen Bürgerschaft, even if they receive less than 5% of the overall vote.

That's, btw, how the right-wing BIW managed twice to move into the parliament of Bremen.

[solarstorm]

The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)

Sorry, I don't believe that poll. The FDP is way too strong and the AfD is way too weak.