University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[Miles]

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I wish they tested actual candidates

[Miles]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

[Miles]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

They aren't unique to him, but Hillary Clinton would have and certainly will do better if she runs again. I put WV and AR in the likely Republican column of light red states along with GA, SC, LA, and AZ. She could put most of these into play with the exception of maybe SC.

Almost any white Democrat would have done noticeably better in those states.