Junk poll. No way that a 15 point lead among adults goes down to 1 point among LV. I can see it going down to 8 points, but a 14-point gap makes no sense.
Well while AA is an interesting number, but you do need to be a RV to become an LV.
The real issue is with this...
There were 1282 registered voters who went for Obama 50/40, but only 807 were counted as likely voters.
That works out to about 62.9% turnout (among RVs), which would be the lowest turnout in modern history. It was 74.4% in 2008. It will likely be lower, but that much lower?