2011 State Elections in Germany

[Peter the Lefty]

Most recent Berlin poll (Infratest Dimap):
SPD-29%
Greens-24%
CDU-23%
Left-14%

[minionofmidas]

And a surprise victory for sanity and data protection, won without mass awareness of the issue!

 ELENA-Verfahren zum Entgeltnachweis gescheitert

Die Bundesregierung ist mit ihrem Verfahren zum elektronischen Entgeltnachweis (ELENA) endgültig gescheitert. Wirtschafts- ...

Berlin. Die Bundesregierung ist mit ihrem Verfahren zum elektronischen Entgeltnachweis (ELENA) endgültig gescheitert. Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsministerium hätten sich darauf verständigt, «das Verfahren schnellstmöglich einzustellen», hieß es in einer Mitteilung. Der für das Verfahren notwendige datenschutzrechtliche Sicherheitsstandard bei der elektronischen Signatur sei nicht flächendeckend zu erreichen. Zuletzt waren die Kosten für das Projekt explodiert. Die bisher gespeicherten, von den Arbeitgebern übermittelten Daten werden laut Ministerium gelöscht. (dpa)

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELENA-Verfahren

Pigs spotted flying over the Brandenburg Gate.

[Peter the Lefty]

A new poll from Berlin (TNS Emnid) from July 17:
SPD-32%
Greens-22%
CDU-21%
Left-14%

Majority for SPD-Greens, SPD-CDU, and yes, SPD-Left. 

[Peter the Lefty]

New Mecklenburg poll (Infratest)

SPD 34%
CDU 30%
Left 17%
Greens 8%
FDP 4%
NPD 4%

SPD/CDU or SPD/Left coalition

If, say, the SPD and Greens had the right numbers, would it be possible for them to form a minority government that relies on support from the Left like the one in NRW?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Mecklenburg poll (Infratest)

SPD 34%
CDU 30%
Left 17%
Greens 8%
FDP 4%
NPD 4%

SPD/CDU or SPD/Left coalition

If, say, the SPD and Greens had the right numbers, would it be possible for them to form a minority government that relies on support from the Left like the one in NRW?

Possible: yes. Likely: Probably not. Reason: It's redundant.

SPD/Green minority governments which are tolerated by the Left are formed when SPD/Left is not deemed to be a, uh, politically correct solution. Like in a Western state (NRW, 2010), or like fairly soon after the end of the GDR (Saxony-Anhalt, 1994).

Mecklenburg has already been governed by SPD/Left from 1998 to 2006, so not an issue here.

Don't hold your breath.

[republicanism]

If, say, the SPD and Greens had the right numbers, would it be possible for them to form a minority government that relies on support from the Left like the one in NRW?

I'd say, the odds are like zero for something like that. Minority governments have no tradition in Germany. And the SPD has been in a coalition with both the CDU as the Leftist Party, and is most likely that we will form a government with one of them after the next elections.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

[republicanism]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

[minionofmidas]

Welcome back, wondered where you'd disappeared to.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.

Crazy.
What the heck do they govern on? I wouldn't imagine they could agree to much.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.

Crazy.
What the heck do they govern on? I wouldn't imagine they could agree to much.

Ideologies are practically irrelevant on the local level. You decide whether you rather build a new swimming hall or more playgrounds for children. Now what's the conservative approach to this? Playgrounds because conservatism is pro-children/anti-swimming?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Conservatives here at the local level would build neither and lower taxes

[MaxQue]

Conservatives here at the local level would build neither and lower taxes

Well, here, my city has a right-wing mayor. He builds things and lower taxes and still manages to have a surplus.

Most right-wing local administrations are actually sane. They understand than a city has services to deliver and than they will lose badly if they don't. Hence why the previous mayor of my city lost by a gigantic margin in 1999 and why I think mayor Ford won't be relected in Toronto.

Being ideologic is a bad idea at municipal level.

[republicanism]

One other reason may be that many older CDU-guys and Leftist Party-guys still know each other very well from before 1989, you know...

Oh, and thanks Lewis :-)

[BenNebbich]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

i hope that in 30 years the left party will be history.

[Jackson]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

i hope that in 30 years the left party will be history.

No. The FDP will though.

[republicanism]

The FDP will survive. They have been deep down in the polls several times in their history. In the late 1990s they polled no better than 2-3% for years.
There are enough affluent Germans that still feel to highly taxed (what is ridiculous) and still believe that submit to the divine order of the free market is the way to go.
I see them crash down to 6% or so in the 2013 elections, but no less. And if they are still close to the treshold in polling on election day, they will probably receive votes from the CDU camp like they did in the past.


The Leftist Party on the other hand has the problem of slowly dying out. I mean that's a problem all parties except the Greens share, but with the Leftist Party it is dramatically. In the East their average age is like 68 or so.
They will survive at a relevant political power if the disadvantaged East German youth continues the voting traditions of their parents and grandparents. If they don't the party has a mayor problem.

Well, today I have to say I hope they survive, get rid of the fundies and become a reasonable left-social democratic party concentrated on the East, with which we could work as well everywhere as we do in Berlin today.

Since the Greens become more and more bourgeois every day, we have to look out for alternatives.

[BenNebbich]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

i hope that in 30 years the left party will be history.

No. The FDP will though.

i don't think so. The left party 'needs' the gap between east and west germany. i think the gap will vanishover the years.

the fdp needs the gap between rich and poor. this is a gap, which will exist forever.

please check it in 30 years and then remember old BenNebbich.

[Peter the Lefty]

A new poll from Berlin (Forsa) from July 31st:
SPD-30%
Greens-24%
CDU-19%
Left-13%
Exact tie between SPD-Left and Greens-CDU. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mecklenburg poll (Infratest, 08/04)

SPD 34%
CDU 30%
Left 18%
Greens 8%
NPD 4%
FDP 3%
Others 3%

SPD/CDU or SPD/Left

[greenforest32]

Does the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition still have a majority in Germany's upper chamber as of August 2011?

[republicanism]

Does the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition still have a majority in Germany's upper chamber as of August 2011?

No, they've lost their majority in the Bundesrat with the election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010. From that on they at least had to win over the Greens, who were in coalition with CDU in Hamburg (in March 2011 SPD won an outright majority there) and with CDU and FDP in the state of Saarland (that three-party-government still exists).

And since the Coalition lost both Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg to the Red-Green camp in March, the SPD now is in the position - theoretically - to obstruct all law which has to go through the Bundesrat.

[greenforest32]

Does the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition still have a majority in Germany's upper chamber as of August 2011?

No, they've lost their majority in the Bundesrat with the election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010. From that on they at least had to win over the Greens, who were in coalition with CDU in Hamburg (in March 2011 SPD won an outright majority there) and with CDU and FDP in the state of Saarland (that three-party-government still exists).

And since the Coalition lost both Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg to the Red-Green camp in March, the SPD now is in the position - theoretically - to obstruct all law which has to go through the Bundesrat.

Wow. So it looks like the SPD/Greens are on track to win the 2013 elections? Any reason why Germany is moving left recently compared to itself from 2005 or all the other countries in Europe lately?

[MaxQue]

Does the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition still have a majority in Germany's upper chamber as of August 2011?

No, they've lost their majority in the Bundesrat with the election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010. From that on they at least had to win over the Greens, who were in coalition with CDU in Hamburg (in March 2011 SPD won an outright majority there) and with CDU and FDP in the state of Saarland (that three-party-government still exists).

And since the Coalition lost both Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg to the Red-Green camp in March, the SPD now is in the position - theoretically - to obstruct all law which has to go through the Bundesrat.

Wow. So it looks like the SPD/Greens are on track to win the 2013 elections? Any reason why Germany is moving left recently compared to itself from 2005 or all the other countries in Europe lately?

Europe seems to move to the same side.

Against governments.
Economical crisis is hitting hard, so, government parties lose and opposition parties win, roughly.

[Tender Branson]

NRW (Emnid)

34%  (-1) SPD
32%  (-3) CDU
20% (+8) Greens
  5%  (-1) Left
  5%  (-2) FDP
  4%  (-2) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Emnid)

34% (+4) SPD
29%  (nc) CDU
19% (+2) Left
  7% (+4) Greens
  3%  (-7) FDP
  8%  (-3) Others

Majority for SPD-Left or SPD-CDU.