OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Mike Thick]

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That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

[BuckeyeNut]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

[BuckeyeNut]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

All true, but he prurposefully put his House in Jordan's House district.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

All true, but he prurposefully put his House in Jordan's House district.

Was (Is) he angling to replace Jordan when/if he retires? Seems like a bad plan given Jordan's relative youth and the number of old GOP Congressional farts he could've districted himself under like Boehner.

[BuckeyeNut]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

All true, but he prurposefully put his House in Jordan's House district.

Was (Is) he angling to replace Jordan when/if he retires? Seems like a bad plan given Jordan's relative youth and the number of old GOP Congressional farts he could've districted himself under like Boehner.

Not sure. Maybe he thought Jordan would run for higher office and abandon his seat back in 2011. I really can’t say. I know Boehner held a lot of sway in Congressional redistricting, so he probably had something to do with Faber drawing himself into the 4th and not the 8th. As is, the 8th is one of the cleaner districts. Drawing Lima down to Oxford would maks  Jordan’s district even worse while also probably messign with Latta’s and Turner’s, and likely some others.

[BuckeyeNut]

So I am a running a poll aggregator for all major Ohio races in Excel and decided to add a weighted option based on 538's poll rankings. Interesting information.

Unweighted from the first poll: DeWine +2%
Unweighted from post-primary: TIE

Weighted from the first poll: Cordray +2%
Weighted from post-primary: Cordray +4%

I'd take my weighted averages with a good pinch of salt, but the trend is definitely good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine, now it appears, to be disadvantaged in this race, in a race, was supposed to win, due to the strong support Cordray is receiving from the Sherrod Brown supporters.

[Karpatsky]

DeWine, now it appears, to be disadvantaged in this race, in a race, was supposed to win, due to the strong support Cordray is receiving from the Sherrod Brown supporters.

Don't be too optimistic - Gov race is toss-up at best for the Democrats, even with those results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Dems need a Gov, so DeWine doesn't redistrict it even more hard core GOP.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats are essentially giving up on Senate District 3. Candidate Tina Marahath, who has a troubled past, got the nomination after Team Rubicon Nathan Dowds had petitions invalidated by Jon Husted.

Marahath is the only state level candidate to not be endorsed by the ODP.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180711/dewine-pledges-to-keep-full-medicaid-expansion-coverage DeWine has now changed his tune and says he will keep full medicaid expansion coverage --- albeit while seeking reforms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course, as the polls have narrowed

[KingSweden]

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180711/dewine-pledges-to-keep-full-medicaid-expansion-coverage DeWine has now changed his tune and says he will keep full medicaid expansion coverage --- albeit while seeking reforms.

I’ll take “my polling looks bad” for 400

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine is pivoting back to the center after having to puff up his conservative bona fides running against Mary Taylor in the primary. Cordray consequently hit him for flip-flopping. It's noteworthy DeWine wants to implement work requirements though -- no thanks.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Libertarian Party of Ohio has regained ballot access for the first time since 2014. They will be fielding candidates for.Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State and, allegedly, 30 state legislative seats. Greens, meanwhile are only contesting the Governorship and a handful of legislative races.

[Greedo punched first]

Without ballot access, the Libertarian Party still would have run candidates, but their candidates would have appeared on the ballot as independents.

[Canis]

Without ballot access, the Libertarian Party still would have run candidates, but their candidates would have appeared on the ballot as independents.

They have ballot access now so will they show up on the ballot as libertarians?

[BuckeyeNut]

Without ballot access, the Libertarian Party still would have run candidates, but their candidates would have appeared on the ballot as independents.

They have ballot access now so will they show up on the ballot as libertarians?

Uh, no. They would not have. Libertarians have till the end of the week to get on the ballot with only FIVE valid signatures. Getting on as an Independent is something candidates would have had to do by now and it requires many more signatures.

[Badger]

Without ballot access, the Libertarian Party still would have run candidates, but their candidates would have appeared on the ballot as independents.

They have ballot access now so will they show up on the ballot as libertarians?

Uh, no. They would not have. Libertarians have till the end of the week to get on the ballot with only FIVE valid signatures.

But from how many different counties?

[BuckeyeNut]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

[Zaybay]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

Wow, very impressive. What do you think is the likely result so far?

[Ohioguy29]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

You seemed to have more faith in Sappington and Helle last time around; what's changed for you? I haven't been following the state house races so I don't know.

I also question why you have any of the Butler County races as anything other than safe R. For HD-54 I can at least understand an argument that Aftab-mentum could carry Foster to victory (although I'd probably still put it at safe R.)

[KingSweden]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

Imagine how clean a non-gerrymandered map would look