1980 George H W Bush vs Jimmy Carter

[anvi]

Assuming that the national circumstances are about the same, the poor economy still hurts Carter and the American hostage situation in Iran bolsters people's confidence in Bush's national security experience.  Bush does not swing as many southern voters as Reagan did, but his choice of Thompson as VP helps him win in the midwest and rustbelt.  The result:

Bush/Thompson  413
Carter/Mondale   125