2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

With the withdrawal of DeFransico from the race, NY moves from Likely D to Safe D.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (5): NV, IA, OH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, VT, KS, NH
Likely R (7): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Xing]

Been a little while since my last update

IL: Lean D -> Likely D
MD: Toss-Up -> Lean R
MI: Toss-Up -> Lean D
NV: Toss-Up -> Lean D
OH: Lean R -> Toss-Up
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
SC: Safe R -> Likely R
TN: Safe R -> Likely R

[Strudelcutie4427]

[UncleSam]

Michigan lean R is far from insane, though I think that it’s more of a tossup. Schuette is a strong nominee and Whitmer is frankly a terrible candidate (so far). Michigan is deceptively conservative, especially down ballot, and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if a strong James candidacy in the senate race keeps the margins in that race low enough where the GOP is favored in the governors race. I of course also wouldn’t be surprised if the environment carries Democrats, but it sure as hell won’t be the state party or the candidates doing the heavy lifting.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

Safe D: CA, OR, HI, NY
Likely D: NM, IL, MI, PA, RI
Lean D: ME, MN, CO, NV
Tossup: WI, OH, FL, CT
Lean R: NH, MD, OH, IA, KS, AK, AZ
Likely R: OK, GA, MA, TN, VT
Safe R: ID, WY, SD, NE, TX, AR, AL, SC

[Politician]

Updates:
Florida: Tossup->Lean D
Massachusetts: Likely R->Safe R
Michigan: Lean D->Likely D
Tennessee: Likely R->Lean R
Vermont: Likely R->Safe R

[Senator Spark]

2018:

MA: Gov. Charlie Baker def. Jay Gonzalez (60-39%)
VT: Gov. Phil Scott def. Dem (56-42%)
RI: Gov. Gina Raimondo def. Allan Fung (48-41%)
CT: Erin Stewart def. Susan Bysiewicz (48-46%)
ME: Shawn Moody def. Terry Hayes and Janet Mills (41-37-13%)
NH: Gov. Chris Sununu def. Steve Marchand (48-47%)
PA: Gov. Tom Wolf def. Scott Wagner (47-45%)
OH: Richard Cordray def. Mike DeWine (49-46%)
NY: Gov. Andrew Cuomo def. Marc Molinaro (56-42%)
MI: Gretchen Whitmer def. Att Gen. Bill Schuette (57-43%)
IL: J.B. Pritzker def. Gov. Bruce Rauner (50-44%)
FL: Gwen Graham def. Adam Putnam (52-47%)
MD: Gov. Larry Hogan def. Rushurn Baker (50-49%)
WI: Gov. Scott Walker def. Tony Evers (51-48%)
MN: Erin Murphy def. Tim Pawlenty (51-47%)
IA: Gov. Kim Reynolds def. Nate Boulton (55-42%)
SD: Att Gen. Marty Jackley def. Billie Sutton (58-42%)
NE: Gov. Pete Ricketts (75%, unopposed)
KS: Carl Brewer def. Kris Kobach (upset pick) (50-47%)
OK: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb def. Drew Edmondson (53-46%)
TX: Gov. Greg Abbott def. Lupe Valdez (51-40%)
NM: Michelle Lujan Grisham def. Steve Pearce (47-45%)
AZ: Gov. Doug Ducey def. Steve Farley (54-43%)
CO: Cary Kennedy def. Victor Mitchell (53-44%)
NV: Att Gen. Adam Laxalt def. Stephen Sisolak (49-47%)
ID: Lt. Gov. Brad Little def. A.J. Balukoff (62-37%)
WY: Mark Gordon def. Mary Throne (60-38%)
OR: Gov. Kate Brown def. Knute Buehler (50-46%)
CA: Gavin Newsom def. John Cox (53-43%)
HI: Gov. David Ige def. Bob McDermott (59-40%)
AK: Mike Chenault def. Gov. Bill Walker (upset, Walker not popular), (47-45%)
AR: Gov. Asa Hutchinson def. Jared Henderson (62-36%)
AL: Gov. Kay Ivey def. Susan Bell Cobb (56-43%)
SC: Gov. Henry McMaster def. James Smith (55-43%)
TN: Diane Black def. Karl Dean (53-44%)
GA: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle def. Stacey Abrams (52-47%)

[junior chįmp]

Changes:
Connecticut: Tossup->Lean D
Rhode Island: Lean D->Likely D

Great map!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

snip

Your Maine results aren't accurate, due to the ranked-choice voting system. Otherwise this is good, though a little bearish.

Are you aware that KKA is a troll?

[Xing]

A few quick updates:

CO: Lean D -> Likely D
Not sure why this race is supposed to be competitive. Polis should win pretty easily.

MA: Likely R -> Safe R
Even in a Democratic tsunami, Baker should hold on easily.

OK: Likely R -> Lean R
Fallin's unpopularity looks as though it will weigh on Republicans more than I thought.

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida tossup to Leans R Putnam is good enough to win
Ohio Leans R to tossup 😀
Iowa Tilts R to Likely R Kim Reynolds is popular
Wisconsin Tilts R to Tilts D 😀 Walker is done

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, NH, MD aren't tilt D and the electoral map favors Dems in OH, WI except for Iowa.  FL can go either way but Putnam is a strong candidate

[Sir Mohamed]

My map as it now stands:

[President Johnson]

Changes:
Arkansas: Safe R->Likely R
Colorado: Safe D->Likely D
Maine: Likely D->Lean D
Massachusetts: Safe R->Likely R
Michigan: Likely D->Lean D
New Hampshire: Tossup->Lean D
New York: Safe D->Likely D
Oregon: Safe D->Likely D
Pennsylvania: Safe D->Likely D
Rhode Island: Likely D->Lean D
South Carolina: Likely R->Lean R
Texas: Safe R->Likely R
Vermont: Safe R->Likely R
Due to the way governorships work, not a single Safe R seat, and only 3 Safe D seats (one of which is held by a Republican).

How are New Hampshire, Florida and Arizona (!) lean Democratic? They're toss-ups at best. Same on Wisconsin and Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is an anti-incumbant mood.  And the map above is a very rosey scenario in which Dems will win 8-12 gov mansion, which they will win 60 House seats and win 3-5 Senate seats.

Nelson is very much vulnerable in FL and Graham is untested. Dems are likelier than not to win OH/WI scenario than a FL/AZ scenario. Putnam is a stronger candidate than expected.

[junior chįmp]

Changes:
New Mexico: Safe D->Likely D
South Dakota: Likely R->Lean R

I fully agree with this map. Billie Sutton is SD is an "unknown unknown" type of candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My rankings

Tilt D takeover: IL,  WI,  MI,  NM,  ME,
Tossup NH, MD,  NV
Tilt R: FL, OH, Iowa

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

CA as Likely D? What.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

LOL'd at Kucinich being called a "socialist by admission" as if other people give a sh**t, and Ohio being moved to Lean R based on dubious polling. Also, California is Safe D, we all know Newsom will make the top-two at this point.

But what do I expect from the guy who called two primaries wrong.

The standard I set back when I started my ratings for this cycle was that I wouldn't rate CA Safe D until the primary had occurred, and that's not something I feel I can go back on.

[Gass3268]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

A Republican poll came out today showing almost a 15 point swing to the Dem in Ohio and you move it to Lean R? Lol

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

AK: Toss-Up to Lean R based on it becoming a three way race
MA: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Toss-Up to Lean R

I expect to make further change(s) following the June 5 primaries.

Safe D (3): OR, HI, NY
Likely D (5): CA, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (3): NV, IA, FL
Lean R (6) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

A Republican poll came out today showing almost a 15 point swing to the Dem in Ohio and you move it to Lean R? Lol

1. Cordray was never really down by 20 points, quit kidding yourself.
2. The same poll shows Brown up by 14, which seems to strike me as around Brown's ceiling, so basically, if even when Brown is performing at his best, Cordray isn't (yet) ahead, it's not really a Toss-Up contest anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree, with OH and AK move to LR as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The pundits should put their predictions on hold now,  when they say the Democrats are favored, McConnell was right and the wave may have come to an end.  Democrats may pickup 10 to 15 House seats and 5 to 6 governor mansions.  OH, FL are Leaning R