Georgia vs North Carolina

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think Dems will eventually win North Carolina, but maybe not until the 2030's, assuming recent trends where the incumbent party weakens over 2 consecutive cycles after their win. Unless Charlotte or another city grows to Atlanta levels, I don't think it will become reliably Democratic, but rather a bellwether. Barring a national landslide, I don't think a candidate will regularly win by a margin of greater than 5 points, although a Southern Democrat could win by around 6.

Georgia on the other hand I'm guessing is going to become reliably Democratic, with a strong Republican minority, although with current trends, the GOP could win it again, due to its initial narrow victory. It'll probably be a purple state until sometime in the 2030's, before officially becoming a reliably Democratic state. I think the Democrat ceiling will be around 60%, but more often will be in the low-mid 50's during elections.