UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

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May:
Favourable: 29% (-13)
Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

Theresa May: from the new Iron Lady to RL Henry Collingridge.

I just pictured Gove as Francis Urquhart because of that. Damn, that's a scary thought.

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So I saw the full Question Time for the first time a couple days ago. It was great and I think it's a wonderful exercise of democratic debate, but one thing I found unbelievably silly are the majority MPs who will use their question to their own Prime Minister as an excuse to attack the other side, with the PM happy to oblige.

Stuff like "Madam Prime Minister, do you agree that the leader of the Opposition is a raving commie lunatic?" "I would like to thank the Right Honourable Gentleman from Bumblef**kshire East for his very thoughtful question. I do, in fact, agree that the leader of the Opposition is a raving commie lunatic, and would further add that he hates Britain and eats puppies."

Like, how pathetic is it? Like, I don't have anything against some old fashioned banter between parties - in fact I very much love it - but it's only banter if there is an actual exchange between two sides. This is the textbook definition of groupthink. How long have majority MPs done that, and PMs gone along with it?

I think that has happened for very, very long time, but I'm not entirely sure. Certainly some questions are rather pointless, I recall a recent joke going: "Prime Minister, could you look interested while I bring up some boring s___ about my constituency?"

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If there was a by-election Garnier would leave a 13,000 majority in Wyre Forest, so I really doubt Labour could pick-up the seat even if they make significant gains.

The Tories should have dumped May long ago, but if she loses that by-election I can't see how they could continue the argument that she needs to stay.

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That is one hell of a shocking list.

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May should probably take a risk and purge the cabinet to allow some fresh blood in. Inertia and survival for the sake of survival didn't help John Major, and it certainly won't help her at this stage.

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Priti Patel resigned as International Development Secretary.

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Penny Mordaunt appointed International Development Secretary.

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It seems there's already 40 Tory MP's ready to sign a letter of no confidence on Theresa May (they would only need a few more signatures in that case):

https://news.sky.com/story/forty-conservative-mps-prepared-to-call-for-theresa-may-to-go-11123282

Your beloved Theresa May appointed Alan Duncan - an odious antisemite of the old school right-wing Arabist variety - to a ministerial post at the Foreign Office, which he continues to hold. Alas, the JC doesn't kick up a fuss about this (though actually it should) because its editor is almost as much of a hack for the Tories here as he is for Likud in an Israeli context. It's unfortunate.

Wait, Alan Duncan is an anti-semite?

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Yes, but if they can’t get to 48 for some reason, can’t even just ten or fifteen hold the government hostage by threatening a vote of no confidence against the government?

Not going to happen, the rebels wouldn't risk an early election with the possibility of PM Corbyn (which is a large part of why May hangs on, the danger that a Corbyn victory represents for many of them). Not even during Maastricht did the rebels risk an early election with the risk of anhilitation by bringing down the government (although they did came close).

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Latest Survation poll has Labour at 45%, Conservatives at 37%.

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Greening out as Education Secretary (apparently was offered DWP and refused it), replaced by Damian Hinds.

Brandon Lewis promoted to Party Chairman and Matt Hancock to Culture Secretary, David Gauke moved to Justice, Karen Bradley to Northern Ireland, Hunt and Javid see their titles seemingly expanded but remain on the same jobs.

Still, very disappointing given the speculation, Johnson, Gove, Grayling and the rest all remain exactly in place.

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Strictly speaking the conditions are there for a large Labour polling lead. The fact that May and the Conservatives remain competitive and close to 40% after all that's happened speaks volumes to the critical condition of small parties, and particularly to how much resistance Corbyn still generates among many potential voters.

Even if he "wins" the election (which at this time appears increasingly likely), it doesn't him he'll be able to actually win a majority.

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I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

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I want to say "she's finished at last", but May has made such a habit of barely surviving that I keep expecting her not to fall somehow.

Corbyn faced a no confidence vote from his MPs. He's still there.

Eh, I don't place that much importance in the no confidence vote either (because strictly speaking she should have the numbers to win one outright), it's the whole situation with the resignations (particularly Raab), the lack of cabinet support and the lack of support for the deal from a vast majority within Parliament which I think are decisive enough. Where can she go on from there?

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If Gove resigns, are we headed to a snap?

Two thirds of Parliament would have to approve an election, and I strongly doubt enough Conservative MPs would vote for one.

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Stephen Barclay (who?) is the new Brexit Secretary.

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^^ according to twitter..

@tnewtondunn

1) New Brexit Secretary is Steven Barclay, a mid ranking health minister and former whip (who voted Leave).

2) But, a big but: Brexit Sec role is being stripped down, just now the domestic delivery of Brexit. PM will have sole charge of the final negotiations.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1063470293648400385

^^ why not abolish the ministry, if No 10 want to do all the negotiation... it's a waste of taxpayers money..

Well, since a no-deal Brexit is a possibilty it shouldn't be a bad idea per se to have a cabinet minister in charge of preparing for it. Even more interesting is the fact that he's a health minister.

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I would've sat around the table and talked with the Argentinean Leadership and tried my best to engage other south American nations in the diplomatic negotiations..

Now would it work?! I dunno, but at least I would've given a peaceful resolution a chance..

No offense, but that would have meant appeasing a brutal, aggressive military junta that clearly was not stopping with just the Falklands. If anything the Falklands War prevented an even bigger conflict had Argentina invaded Chile after  Falklands triumph, as it clearly intended to do.

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That's... unlikely. YouGov has seemingly been accurate, but that does seem to come out of nowhere unless the public was A. Suddenly realizing Corbyn has no realistic or feasible plan and B. Somehow started to rally behind May despite the sheer unpopularity of the deal and the fact that the confirmed No votes continue to rise.

So weird, really, I'll look forward to the details of that poll.

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No way a snap general election takes place, I don't see the Conservatives willingly voting for one - as it requires two thirds of Parliament - with May at the helm even if she wants one.

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The date for the vote on May's deal has finally been announced, it will be on January 14.

Also Corbyn finally put forward a motion of no confidence... on the PM, but not the government itself (thus a symbolic, not binding motion). So far it appears to have been an unsuccessful gamble because A. the Government is refusing time to debate it and is daring Corbyn to call an actual motion of no confidence; B. both the ERG and the DUP have noted that they will not vote against the government (or at least not yet in the DUP's case); and C. the smaller parties have hit back at Corbyn for not going for a formal motion of confidence and also called on him to do so.

Since May has the numbers to survive at least until the January 14th vote, it will be interesting to see how Corbyn gets out of the problem he's facing. If he doesn't go for a formal motion of no confidence he gets flak from his party, the SNP, Lib Dems and others for "not being serious" about unseating May; and if he does and then loses it (which appears to be the likely case) his conditional delays on potentially supporting a second referendum lose weight as it becomes clear he can't force a General Election, and is thus further pushed into a course of action (2nd Ref) which he appears to be hostile or at least very skeptical of.

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Seems to me the only scenario in which Conservative MP - such as Soubry or Grieve - would give serious thought to toppling the Government in a VONC (which would instantly terminate their future within the Conservative Party) would be if May attempted to go through a No-Deal Brexit, and even then it's impossible to tell how many would do it.

The scale of the defeat is enormous, humilliating and about as resounding as it could be, and yet unless May actually decides to resign - which is about the one thing she's been consistent in opposing - it seems likely she'll manage to carry on to set out whatever Plan B is until the next crisis, blunder or backlash.

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Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.

I get that Onasanya herself clearly has an alternate view of reality - like comparing herself and her predicament to Jesus - and that some have an interest in her remaining so she can vote, but still, she should have the decency to at least resign her seat. I strongly hope there's at least an eventual recall.

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Seven amendments were voted on today, with the following results:

The Corbyn + Labour Frontbench amendment, ruling out No Deal and allowing the Commons to vote on other options including the mythical Labour Brexit Deal: Defeated 327 to 296

The SNP amendment, ruling out No Deal, extending Article 50, demanding greater involvement from Scotland and the regions and not taking Scotland out of the EU against its will: Defeated 39 to 327

The (Dominic) Grieve amendment, further empowering Parliament on Brexit and allowing for several days of debate and binding votes on amendments on alternative Brexit options: Defeated 321 to 301

The (Yvette) Cooper amendment, essentially ruling out No Deal by having the Govt. extend Article 50 all the way to December 31: Defeated 321 to 298

The (Rachel) Reaves amendment, requring the Government to postpone Brexit if a deal was not passed by the end of February: Defeated 322 to 290

The (Caroline) Spelman - (Jack) Dromey Amendment, symbolically rejecting a No-Deal Brexit: Passed 318 to 310 thanks to Conservative rebels

The (Graham) Brady Amendment, calling to support Theresa May's Brexit deal provided the backstop is replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border": Passed 317 to 301 with the support of the DUP and 7 Labour rebels.

So on one hand the House of Commons has (symbolically and in non-binding fashion) rejected a No Deal Brexit, while at the same time giving May's Deal a majority provided she can get rid of the Backstop. Thus May technically has a mandate to try again and can point out that Parliament will approve her deal if the Backstop is removed... but the EU has made it clear the Deal is not up for renegotiation and that the backstop cannot be removed.

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If Parliament can only get a 318-310 majority for a symbolic, non-binding resolution against a no-Deal Brexit it does seem rather clear there isn't a chance of a parliamentary majority for a second referendum nor any indications Corbyn is about to cave on the issue (which still wouldn't make the 2nd Ref likely, just less implausible), much less May (who has been proven to preference her party not breaking up at the end of the day). Plus the clock has moved enough to make it too late for one unless Article 50 was extended, say, all the way to December.