2004 without 9/11

[Lechasseur]

If there's no 9/11 and no Iraq War, then it's unclear that Kerry would win the nomination.

This. I think without the war factor the nominee would have been someone like Gephardt or Edwards. Maybe even Gore would have ran again and won.

Or maybe without the war Bush isn't that unpopular and wins. There are just too many variables to say what would happen. What I do think though is without 9/11 AND Iraq Kerry would not have been the nominee.