I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.
There are diminishing returns. If Hillary and her allies end up raising $1-2 billion, I'd say a minor investment like that would be a good one. If UT-04 is actually in play, I could easily see the DCCC spending $1-2 million in that one district. I'd like to force Trump to play defense in Utah and I also want to give Hillary both Houses of Congress. Winning seats like UT-04 makes winning the majority in the House much easier.
(I may be dreaming, but can you imagine seeing a State of the Union with President Hillary Clinton, Vice President Elizabeth Warren, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi? I want to see that more than anything.)
I'll believe it if it's still showing it in September. But like someone else said, even if it is, it'll probably end up being like the Dakotas in 2008 anyway.
Probably. I actually fell for that in 2008. I went out on a big limb and predicted Obama to win North Dakota that year. I remember a lot of analysts had both Dakotas as toss-ups at the end of 2008, including Charlie Cook. Admittedly, it was a gamble and I lost. Hillary would have to be up by high single-digits in the polling average at the end of October for me to ever predict her winning Utah. I'd love to see it happen, even if it meant I got a wrong prediction.
