PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,236
Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57
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« on: August 14, 2017, 05:11:46 PM » |
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I've noticed that some states in presidential elections either always swing away or toward the incumbent president's party.
The best example of a state that hates incumbents is Montana. It has swung towards the party out of power in every election since 1976. The next best example after that looks to be South Dakota, which swung away from the incumbent party in every election since 1964 except for 1996, which was probably due to Perot drop-off from 1992, when he got 21.8% statewide.
The states that seem to love incumbents the most are New Jersey and Hawaii, though only when an incumbent president is running for reelection. Both have swung towards the incumbent President since 1992. However, this pattern might be broken in 2020, since Christie has probably destroyed the NJ GOP for a few cycles, and Trump is toxic there. I'm not sure about Hawaii.
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