He needs to hold all of the non-gray Trump states and then win 39+ electoral votes from the gray states above (all of which had a margin of less than 3 percent). I really don't see any other Clinton state (e.g. VA or CO) being the tipping point state in 2020, and if any other Republican states go Democratic, Trump probably loses.
Based on the above map it's possible to win without Florida, but I think it's far more likely that he wins perennial swing states FL + PA + WI than that he wins via some other combination. I guess a lot of it depends on how you view Michigan: was it a fluke that Trump won it, or is Michigan a key swing state from now on? The no Michigan, no Florida path seems even more unlikely.
