Dukakis wins in 1988 (user search)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Dukakis wins in 1988 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dukakis wins in 1988  (Read 3002 times)
bhouston79
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Posts: 206


« on: December 13, 2008, 10:58:00 AM »

What?? House maybe, but the rest is just impossible.

Just like vast majority of your maps Tongue. Sorry mate, it had to be said.

Whilst I agree a Dukakis victory in 1988, similar to the map seen in the first post is quite implausible, we must remember that this thread is in the Election What-Ifs board and how Governor Dukakis could have won in 1988 is debatable.

Dukakis winning in 1988 isn't that implausible.  He lost the states of California, New Mexico, Missouri, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, and Vermont by less than 5 percentage points.  He lost the states of Michigan, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana by less than 10%, and he lost the states of Ohio and Texas by only 11 % and 12 % respectively.  So the bottom line is that a 5% swing in the electorate (i.e. Dukakis recieving 50% of the vote instead of 45% of the vote nationally, would have most likely swung the election to Dukakis.  As one of the posters above indicated, the second debate as well as the Willie Horton ads played a critical role in causing Dukakis's numbers to collapse.  Additionally, as I recall Dukakis actually had a 17% lead earlier in the summer immediately after the Democratic convention.  If Dukakis had have won that second debate, and effectively responded to the Willie Horton ads, it is entirely concievable that he would have won the 1988 election.
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