Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Omega21]

In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.

Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.

[Omega21]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

So, there are no integration issues whatsoever that are a part of the problem?

Don't you think someone who does not fully integrate into Swedish culture and does not learn the language bears part of the responsibility for the lack of opportunities?

[Omega21]

I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.

There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.

[Omega21]

I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.

There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.

I agree. Shame to see so many Swedes trust the far-right with their lives and vote. People never learn.

Um, I'm pro SD, and I wouldn't call them far-right really...

[Omega21]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Should be lit over the next few years, literally lol 🚗🔥

[Omega21]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Lol

Reply to mod > Get reply deleted

You're such a strong character. When you don't know what to say, just silence the other side, because, you know, silencing the other side is not bad if you think their thoughts are invalid.

[Omega21]

I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!

[Omega21]

I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!

Well first, keep in mind that the Alliance is made up of two liberal parties (Centre Party & the Liberals), one liberal conservative party (the Moderates) and one Christian Democratic Party. So it's all very complicated and there's no easy way to explain it all, but in the end it boils down to basic ideological differences.

For the past eight years they've all been opposed to working with SD mainly due to their roots in the Swedish neo-nazi movement. Not to mention their continuing problems with national and local representatives openly spouting out racism, sexism, anti-semitism and sometimes even openly showing support for neo-nazi organizations like the Nordic Resistance Movement (NMR). SD's first strong candidate to become the Mayor of a municipality comparing homosexuals to pedophiles or Mattias Karlsson, the parliamentary leader of the Sweden Democrats, saying it's now a case of "victory or death" after the past election election certainly doesn't help to clean up their image.

However since 2014 the Christian Democrats have moved further to the right and parts of the Moderates have also grown increasingly positive towards at least negotiating with SD on certain issues in parliament. Not an organised supply and confidence deal mind you, because that would still be difficult considering the significant liberal wing among Moderate members and voters which they'd fear move towards the Centre Party if they were to go in that direction. They got some evidence of that during 2017 when they made a small opening towards working with SD and subsequently dropped like a stone in opinion polls, with the Centre Party as the main beneficiary.

The Centre Party, whilst very much to the right when it comes to taxation and the labour market, perhaps the most right-wing of any party in Parliament on those issues, remains firmly opposed to SD because of the vast ideological differences, just like the Liberals. They see SD, with their praise of the politics of Victor Orban, Donald Trump and inability to choose between a dictator like Putin and a democratically elected leader like Macron as dangerous. Working with them would in their eyes in the long run lead to the slow deterioration of the liberal democracy they've both worked to develop and protect. That's why they have such difficulty with being entirely dependent on SD for major votes in parliament, let alone be in government with them. The Liberals are also by far the most pro-EU party in parliament, so in that regard they are complete polar opposites with SD who want to leave the EU.

Also, it's important to remember that the Swedish public are far more socially liberal than some other countries in Europe when it comes to social issues. Gay marriage was approved by every single party in the Alliance except the Christian Democrats back in 2009 while they were in government and former Moderate PM Fredrik Reinfeldt was even one of two Moderate MPs to vote in favour of civil unions when he was a backbencher during the 90s. So the main conflict between left and right in Sweden have historically mainly been about economics and the size of the welfare state, not social issues.

While the Christian Democrats have held (and still do!) socially conservative positions on issues like LGBTQ rights or abortion they don't advertise them, because it's seen as a losing issue in elections. Some SD representatives even mentioned the Social Democrats's attacks on SD's position on reducing the number of weeks of abortion on demand from 18 to 12 as one of the reasons why they lost support in the final weeks of this year's campaign. And supporters of C and L are pretty much the most socially liberal bunch in the Alliance, which increases their distance to SD.

Wow, thank you for answering my question so well!

I assumed they had some scandals, but I didn't know to which extent. I'm not that surprised considering that they are the only "pure right wing"(not Center-right), so the loonies need to find someone to vote for (someone more mainstream). I don't know enough about Sweden, but I would probably vote SD simply for tighter controls on mass immigration, but then again I'm not sure what their exact policies are. Will be following the thread, hopefully, Sweden works some kind of government out soon.

Thanks again, I appreciate it!

[Omega21]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

So, democracy is only good if you get the outcome you want, and if not you simply ignore the people?

Yeah, democracy fails sometimes, but it's the best thing we have, or would you like one-party rule better?

Plus, comparing the SD to the NSDAP is not really realistic, not even in the current political spectrum where "right-wing" means "ultra far right nationalistic white supremacist".

[Omega21]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

[Omega21]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?

[Omega21]

Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?

[Omega21]

Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?

I can't tell if you're serious. Most of them are against illegal immigration, lol. I'm not sure what you mean by deporting non-integrated migrants. I don't Think even SD wants to evaluate peoples' "integration" level and then deport them based on that. That sounds a bit insane.

How come? Sweden accepted the most migrants/capita of any EU country, and all of these people came illegally...