King Lear
Jr. Member
Posts: 981
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« on: January 13, 2018, 03:13:17 AM » |
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Honestly, I believe Democrats will flip all 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California, however, the one way this wouldn't happen is if Democrats overcrowded the jungle primary in one of these districts causing two Republicans to advance to the general election. This definitely won't happen in CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, and CA-45 because each of these districts has a incumbent Republican congressperson seeking reelection with no major Republican challenger, and it won't happen in CA-49, because though Issa stepped aside the Democratic field consist of only two serious candidates (Appelgate and Levin, the other two are jokes), while the Republican field has around three serious candidates (of which Rocky Chavez is most likely to make it into the runoff), meaning that the Democrats don't have enough serious candidates to have to worry about missing the runoff their (personally I think the runoff will be between Rocky Chavez and Doug Appelgate, because those are the two candidates in both parties with the most name recognition). This leaves only CA-39 and CA-48 to worry about, of which I'm less concerned about CA-39 because from what I've seen it looks like Republicans have 4 candidates their (of which about three are serious), while Democrats have 6 candidates (of which about half aren't serious) meaning it's unlikely that Democrats are sufficiently crowded enough compared with the Republicans (who are quite crowded themselves) to lock themselves out of the runoff. CA-48 on the other hand is extremely concerning, because it has all the sufficient recipes for a R vs. R runoff, the Democratic field consist of a whopping 8 candidates, the Republican incumbent (Dana Rohbacher) is running, and a well-funded Republican (stelian onufrie) is challenging the incumbent. Due to this the California Democratic Party better find away to winnow the field in CA-48, because it would be extremely disappointing (and par for the course for Democrats) for them to lose a very winnable district because to many idiots ran and overcrowded the jungle primary.
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