2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[gespb19]

Reeves made it official today. Also, Marx withdrew his candidacy after his wife was diagnosed with cancer.

And Russell Jolly won't run for SD8 this year. District is 34% black.

[smoltchanov]

Reeves made it official today. Also, Marx withdrew his candidacy after his wife was diagnosed with cancer.

And Russell Jolly won't run for SD8 this year. District is 34% black.

Isn't 34% "too little" for Misssissippi to be sure of holding it? With 85-90% of whites voting Republican? IIRC - Jolly is a centrist generally, and his predecessor was a conservative Democrat. And district is mostly rural. Such districts usually go Republican now, when open..

Reeves is obvious favorite in primary, and at least slight favorite in general.

P.S. It seems Dearing is retiring too in SD-37. Rather natural - he will be 84 this year, and he got his revenge in 2015 after sudden loss in 2011. But that means, that there will be no more or less conservative Democrats in state Senate after next year, and it's one more step in transformation of state Democratic party into "Black party" (what already, essentially, exists in  Alabama, and may happen in Louisiana very soon too). Only 3 white state Senators may run for reelection - Dawkins (who has liberal reputation), Bryan (slightly left-of-center) and Blount (centrist from majority Black district), and only Blount's district is guaranteed to stay Democratic. And Dawkins and Bryant are not so young....

P.S. 2 Looks it will be year of retirements, at least in state Senate. 2 more: Tollison in SD-09 and Carmichael in SD-33. Both are former Democrats (Carmichael - rather conservative, Tollison - more centrist), who switched to Republican party, as frequently happened in Deep South in the past (now Republicans have deep "own" bench, and don't need party switchers as much as some years ago). With likely statewide runs of McDaniel and Watson i count almost 10 retirements out of 52.... After end of filing good review of districts and chances of both parties and their candidates will be highly desirable, though for time being i suppose, that both here and in Louisiana Republicans will strengthen their positions somewhat.

P.S. 3 And Terry Burton - too)))

[OneJ]

Delbert Hosemann announced that he’s running for Lt. Governor.

[gespb19]

List of Senators NOT running for re-election:

Terry Burton (R-Newton)
Videt Carmichael (R-Meridian)
Buck Clarke (R-Hollandale)
Bob Dearing (D-Natchez)
Billy Hudson (R-Hattiesburg)
Russell Jolly (D-Houston)
Gray Tollison (R-Oxford)
Michael Watson (R-Pascagoula)
J.P. Wilemon (D-Belmont)

[gespb19]

The State GOP has a list of Republican candidates that have filed. Updates every Friday.

https://msgop.org/2019-candidates-to-file/

GOPers have already filed to run in seats vacated by Jolly, Wilemon, and Dearing.

[smoltchanov]

The State GOP has a list of Republican candidates that have filed. Updates every Friday.

https://msgop.org/2019-candidates-to-file/

GOPers have already filed to run in seats vacated by Jolly, Wilemon, and Dearing.

Naturally. These districts are "expansion targets" for GOP: southern rural with longstanding conservatively-inclined incumbents retiring. Dearing's district is, probably, "theirs" unless they nominate Sojourner (who is bigger nut then McDaniel) again.

P.S. 9 is not bad. But i remember some very old state Senators (like Gollott) not in retirement list. So, i will not be surprized, if by March 1st about 1/4 of state Senate will retire. Only 4 more are needed.

[MassBlueDog]

https://american-ledger.com/accountability/mississippi-gop-gubernatorial-front-runner-tate-reeves-fraternity-yearbook-page-included-blackface/

welp... not going to do much though

[SnowLabrador]

If anything, it'll help Reeves. White Mississippi voters LOVE racism.

[MassBlueDog]

The thing is, Hood starts out with a higher floor than Espy anyway, cause he's got like 20-25% white support (compared to 15%).  If you can duplicate Espy's senate results entirely, with the overperformance in the Memphis suburbs and the Gulfport area, and add 10% more white support to that, I think he can make this a close one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If anything, it'll help Reeves. White Mississippi voters LOVE racism.

MS is in the process of changing its confederate flag, I dont think it will spill over to MS Gov race

[Rookie Yinzer]

If anything, it'll help Reeves. White Mississippi voters LOVE racism.

[_]

The thing is, Hood starts out with a higher floor than Espy anyway, cause he's got like 20-25% white support (compared to 15%).  If you can duplicate Espy's senate results entirely, with the overperformance in the Memphis suburbs and the Gulfport area, and add 10% more white support to that, I think he can make this a close one.

mississippi is inelastic

[Politician]

The thing is, Hood starts out with a higher floor than Espy anyway, cause he's got like 20-25% white support (compared to 15%).  If you can duplicate Espy's senate results entirely, with the overperformance in the Memphis suburbs and the Gulfport area, and add 10% more white support to that, I think he can make this a close one.

mississippi is inelastic

[Del Tachi]

The State GOP has a list of Republican candidates that have filed. Updates every Friday.

https://msgop.org/2019-candidates-to-file/

GOPers have already filed to run in seats vacated by Jolly, Wilemon, and Dearing.

Naturally. These districts are "expansion targets" for GOP: southern rural with longstanding conservatively-inclined incumbents retiring. Dearing's district is, probably, "theirs" unless they nominate Sojourner (who is bigger nut then McDaniel) again.

P.S. 9 is not bad. But i remember some very old state Senators (like Gollott) not in retirement list. So, i will not be surprized, if by March 1st about 1/4 of state Senate will retire. Only 4 more are needed.

Wilemon's district is probably the most certain GOP pickup.  It's 89% White and in the conservative northeastern part of the state.  It includes the entirety of Tishomingo and Prentiss County, which were 85% and 77% for Trump, respectively.  Of all the White Democrats left in the State Senate, Wilemon was by far the most conservative (as he historically has not had to rely, at all, on Black liberal support)

Jolly's and Dearing's districts are much more winnable for Democrats - 62% and 57% White, respectively.  Jolly's district also includes Hood's native Chickasaw County, so we might expect some exaggerated Democratic coattails here.

I think the best shot for a Democratic Senate pickup is going to be the 9th District - where Gray Tollison is retiring.  He was a moderate, pro-education Republican whose district covers Lafayette County (Oxford) and some of neighboring Panola County.  SD-9 is 70% White, so it's a pretty heavy lift, but it would match the profile of more educated, higher income state legislative districts where Dems picked up seats in Tennessee and Georgia in 2018.   

[smoltchanov]

The State GOP has a list of Republican candidates that have filed. Updates every Friday.

https://msgop.org/2019-candidates-to-file/

GOPers have already filed to run in seats vacated by Jolly, Wilemon, and Dearing.

Naturally. These districts are "expansion targets" for GOP: southern rural with longstanding conservatively-inclined incumbents retiring. Dearing's district is, probably, "theirs" unless they nominate Sojourner (who is bigger nut then McDaniel) again.

P.S. 9 is not bad. But i remember some very old state Senators (like Gollott) not in retirement list. So, i will not be surprized, if by March 1st about 1/4 of state Senate will retire. Only 4 more are needed.

Wilemon's district is probably the most certain GOP pickup.  It's 89% White and in the conservative northeastern part of the state.  It includes the entirety of Tishomingo and Prentiss County, which were 85% and 77% for Trump, respectively.  Of all the White Democrats left in the State Senate, Wilemon was by far the most conservative (as he historically has not had to rely, at all, on Black liberal support)

Jolly's and Dearing's districts are much more winnable for Democrats - 62% and 57% White, respectively.  Jolly's district also includes Hood's native Chickasaw County, so we might expect some exaggerated Democratic coattails here.

I think the best shot for a Democratic Senate pickup is going to be the 9th District - where Gray Tollison is retiring.  He was a moderate, pro-education Republican whose district covers Lafayette County (Oxford) and some of neighboring Panola County.  SD-9 is 70% White, so it's a pretty heavy lift, but it would match the profile of more educated, higher income state legislative districts where Dems picked up seats in Tennessee and Georgia in 2018.  

Thanks! Interesting. I remember even more conservative Democratic state Senators in relatively recent past (Minor, Browning, Little, Gordon), but - not in the last years. BTW - what about Dawkins? Usually she was the most liberal white Democratic state Senator (sometimes - more liberal, then many Black senators). And her district is not especially liberal, AFAIK...

[Pollster]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

[_]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

Goooood, let the primary explode

[Torrain]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

From the article:

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Mwahaha. Let battle commence

[MassBlueDog]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

From the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mwahaha. Let battle commence

He's just like that annoying itch you have.  You think it's gone away, and then it comes back.

[Young Conservative]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

From the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mwahaha. Let battle commence

He's just like that annoying itch you have.  You think it's gone away, and then it comes back.

Isn't the conservative anti-establishment group already covered by farmer Robert Foster?

[Del Tachi]

Bill Waller, Jr. likely to run as a Republican

Reeves now faces a competitive primary.

From the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mwahaha. Let battle commence

He's just like that annoying itch you have.  You think it's gone away, and then it comes back.

Isn't the conservative anti-establishment group already covered by farmer Robert Foster?

Sure, just like how the deplorable/Trump group was covered by Ed Henry in AL-SEN 2017 before Roy Moore got in.  McDaniel would bring gravitas that Foster doesn't have any hopes of possessing.   

[lfromnj]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/23/hinds-da-robert-shuler-smith-running-governor-challenges-jim-hood/2961855002/


Hinds County DA will run for governor from the Democrat side

Hood has investigated him for crimes like DV/robbery and they have a rivalry going on.

All it takes is one black face or something similar for Jim Hood to lose his primary and make this safe R(im like 90% sure Jim Hood did something racist as a teen/young adult and a decent chance that this makes out to the public today.

[Sestak]

I read that as Bill Walker Jr. lmao.

[smoltchanov]

Things went bad for Democrats in the last day of filing. Baria decided to retire instead of running in his very difficult district (and now this district almost surely flips), Bain - switched (rather naturally, he is at least moerate conservative, and his distict became very Republican on almost all levels, as did NE Mississippi as a whole), and Holland (not conservative , IIRC) decided to run for reelection as Indie (the same - with Cockerham). Wirh Dearing and Wilemon retiring in Seante, and people like Sullivan - in House, there will be very few conservatively inclined Democrats in legislature (and those, who remain, will be mostly of right-of-center type, not even moderate conservatives). And - party goes Alabama's way: with a lot of Black legislators and almost none - White (in Alabama 1 white state Senator, and 1 state Representative remains). In essence - the party almost officially becomes "Black party". The same, BTW, may happen in Louisiana very soon too.

P.S. Candidate list is here:

http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Documents/QualifyingForms/2019%20Candidate%20Qualifying%20List.pdf

P.S. 2 (after additional study of the list and number crunchig): Presley is unopposed, in state Senate Republicans don't run candidates in 14 districts (7, 11-13, 16, 21, 24, 26-29, 32, 36, 38), Democrats - in 24 (1, 4, 6, 14, 15, 18, 20, 23, 25, 30, 33, 35, 39, 41-47, 49-52). Only 2 of the above 14 are represented by white state Seantors: 7th (Bryan) and 29th (Blount). 12 retirements in state Senate: Republicans - 8 (3, 9, 22, 31, 33, 45, 50, 51), Democrats - 4 (5, 8, 13, 37) (but 5th and 37 are almost surely gone). State House: Republicans don't run candidates in 42 districts (vast majority of them are "minority majority"), Democrats - in 53.  Retirements: Republicans- 7 (10, 14, 28, 61, 74, 87, 117), Democrats - 6 (12, 22, 32, 68, 98, 122).

[7,052,770]

This Mississippi Democratic Party is such a joke. Even if Hood somehow wins, he'll have a Republican attorney general foiling him at every step, and a super Republican legislature overriding his vetoes.

There is virtually no chance the Democrats win any of the other statewide offices, and I doubt they have any impressive wins in legislative races either.