2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[DINGO Joe]

Hood HAS to flip Lafayette and Madison and DeSoto and make inroads in Rankin and Harrison. Can't rely on rural hicks anymore.

Hood ran quite poorly in DeSoto in 2015, about 10 points behind Espy's showing.  Ran ahead of Espy in the others.

[DINGO Joe]

MS counties are certifying their results now and usually the D candidate gains ground compared with election night.

In Lowndes County, a bigger county, Reeves won by 31 votes on election night - but it was later certified as only a 16 vote win.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2019-general-elections/mississippi-results

https://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2019-General-Election.aspx

I've seen like 4 different maps for MS post election and none of them match or seem to have all the latest numbers for all the counties and of course it's MS fault as it's gotta be the most low tech state out there.

Madison Co does have a decent web site and apparently final numbers and Hood won the county by 662 votes vs the 440 election night  margin.

[DINGO Joe]

Also, I knew that John Hicks was the 3rd party candidate in the KY gov race, but I didn't notice until now that the 3rd party guy in MS was Bob Hickingbottom, which is like taking the name Hick and somehow making it even more embarrassing. 

[DINGO Joe]

All in all, 70 of the 82 counties in MS have now certified their results.

https://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults_aspx/elections_results_2019_countyG.aspx

Yeah, final numbers are kind of all over the place.  Once the final and correct numbers are all in, it would be interesting to put together a map combining Espy and Hood's best performances and see if that would be enough to squeak by.  My guess is you'd still come up about 10,000-15,000 votes short.

[DINGO Joe]

Apparently, there was a rather large reporting error in Bolivar on election night that basically gave Hood an extra 1300 votes, though it makes the turnout gap in Bolivar (vs the 2018 special) possible the biggest in the state.  Anyway, it'll limit any potential improvement in Hood's final numbers. 

[DINGO Joe]

Maybe another large reporting mistake in Holmes, although as of this moment they've taken Bolivar off of the board.

[DINGO Joe]

Bolivar is back and it's results make sense compared to election night.  Holmes County still shows fewer votes than election night.  Coahoma still seems way out of whack in relation to turnout in 2018 and adjacent counties this election.  Yazoo is back and doesn't seem markedly different.

God forbid MS ever have a close election.  It's not a situation like the West Coast where mail in ballots get counted for a couple of weeks.

[DINGO Joe]

If you add the results of all 3 Governors races together, then Republicans win by 700 votes:

1.897.200 votes Rs
1.896.500 votes Ds

No more LA to come in?

No, Louisiana has a hard deadline for absentees and doesn't do provisional voting in non federal elections so the only changes are if something was submitted incorrectly.

[DINGO Joe]

Hinds - the largest county in MS - has certified their election results today.

This means all 82 counties have certified their results, but the Secretary of State has not yet added together the statewide numbers ...

Also, the certified numbers out of Hinds show fewer votes for both candidates than on election night.

The Hinds numbers are wrong.  The error is near the end of the report filed with the state having to do with a precinct named Springridge. 

The reported vote for the Gov race is 78-48 for Hood
The reported vote for the Lt Gov is 1023-707 for the D
The reported vote for the  SOS is 1109-613 for the D
The reported vote for the AG race is 1134-47 for the D (this is wrong too)

If you go to the precinct report from Hinds county for election night

http://www.co.hinds.ms.us/pgs/results/Precinct_Report.html

And find the Springridge precinct (again near the end of the report) it turns out that there are 5 boxes or machines for that precinct--Springridge A B, C, D E

Instead of totaling all five boxes for the Gov race, they just entered the result for Springdale E
For the AG race they totaled all five boxes for the D candidate but only entered the result for Springdale E for the R candidate. 

Roughly speaking the correct total should add about 1100 votes for Hood and about 600 for Reeves (depending on if there are any differences between the election night report and the final numbers)

I'm going to send an email off to the SOS state office notifying them of the error, but who knows if they pay attention to such things.

It's still possible that Holmes county has some kind of error too. 

[DINGO Joe]

I'm going to send an email off to the SOS state office notifying them of the error, but who knows if they pay attention to such things.

It's still possible that Holmes county has some kind of error too. 

Please also cc the mail to Hinds and Holmes counties too, such errors are disgrace.

It should not be your job to fact-check and correct their 1000s-votes mistakes ...

Well, I emailed both Hinds and the SOS so we'll see what happens. 

[DINGO Joe]

Well, after looking at the final numbers and even some random county precinct data, I think that if Hood had been able to get the same level of black turnout that Espy had, the race would have been super close, like Kentucky close, but Mississippi doesn't have the kind of post election data like GA or LA to tell how far the black turnout fell from 2018. 

[DINGO Joe]

I'm going to send an email off to the SOS state office notifying them of the error, but who knows if they pay attention to such things.

It's still possible that Holmes county has some kind of error too. 

Please also cc the mail to Hinds and Holmes counties too, such errors are disgrace.

It should not be your job to fact-check and correct their 1000s-votes mistakes ...

Well, I emailed both Hinds and the SOS so we'll see what happens. 

I got a response and Hinds has resubmitted it's numbers

Hood 56131 Reeves 15604

Power to the nerds.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm going to send an email off to the SOS state office notifying them of the error, but who knows if they pay attention to such things.

It's still possible that Holmes county has some kind of error too. 

Please also cc the mail to Hinds and Holmes counties too, such errors are disgrace.

It should not be your job to fact-check and correct their 1000s-votes mistakes ...

Well, I emailed both Hinds and the SOS so we'll see what happens. 

I got a response and Hinds has resubmitted it's numbers

Hood 56131 Reeves 15604

Power to the nerds.

Cool.

I will update my chart above with the final county/state numbers then.

Was Hinds the only county to update/correct their numbers ?

And do you see any other errors in other counties or are they done now ?

I have no idea if there are other errors. Hinds is the only one I've seen update, but I haven't clicked on all 82 counties.  If the bad precinct for Hinds hadn't been on the same page as the totals for Hinds I probably wouldn't have seen that.  Again, since Holmes county reported fewer votes on their official sheet vs election night, that's a possibility, but the error could have been election night.

[DINGO Joe]

So, yeah, I think there is a problem with Holmes county as the reported vote for two precincts, Durant St. Anderson and Beat 2 Durant seem impossibly low.  Unlike Louisiana which maintains a separate "precinct" in each county for Early and Absentee voting, I believe Mississippi merges absentee voting in with each precinct on the official report.  The vote totals for those two precincts seem impossibly low compared to the 2018 election, leading me to believe that instead of adding the absentee vote to the election day vote, they merely reported the absentee vote for those two precincts.

[DINGO Joe]

So, yeah, I think there is a problem with Holmes county as the reported vote for two precincts, Durant St. Anderson and Beat 2 Durant seem impossibly low.  Unlike Louisiana which maintains a separate "precinct" in each county for Early and Absentee voting, I believe Mississippi merges absentee voting in with each precinct on the official report.  The vote totals for those two precincts seem impossibly low compared to the 2018 election, leading me to believe that instead of adding the absentee vote to the election day vote, they merely reported the absentee vote for those two precincts.

Alright, Holmes is fixed too.  It's final vote is 5347-1037-16-40

[DINGO Joe]

If you add the results of all 3 Governors races together, then Republicans win by 700 votes:

1.897.200 votes Rs
1.896.500 votes Ds

With the Hinds and Holmes updates, plus a tiny adjustment in Louisiana, at this moment, the D vote is about 400 votes ahead of the R vote.

[DINGO Joe]

Mississippi numbers have been certified.  They match Tender's updated file above