IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3  (Read 3625 times)
Pollster
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« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2019, 02:05:37 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on November 12, 2019, 02:02:27 PM
I could easily see Gabbard sneaking up in Iowa to maybe 5-7% and I think Amy could get 10-12%
Both would still be inviable and not receive any delegates. In many precincts their supporters would likely be reallocated to their second choice, further diminishing their showing. Its a system that rewards both strong statewide organization and candidates with large bases contained in small areas.
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SN2903
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2019, 02:06:03 PM »
Quote from: Corbyn is a Strasserist on November 12, 2019, 02:05:27 PM
Yeah, at this point, the most likely scenario to me seems to be Buttigieg winning Iowa, Sanders winning New Hampshire, Biden clawing his way to a victory in Nevada and then blowing out the field in SC. From there, it'll be hard to stop Biden.
I could see Pete winning Iowa and NH. Warren is def faltering as is Biden. Pete, Amy and Gabbard are on the rise.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2019, 02:07:21 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on November 12, 2019, 02:06:03 PM
Quote from: Corbyn is a Strasserist on November 12, 2019, 02:05:27 PM
Yeah, at this point, the most likely scenario to me seems to be Buttigieg winning Iowa, Sanders winning New Hampshire, Biden clawing his way to a victory in Nevada and then blowing out the field in SC. From there, it'll be hard to stop Biden.
I could see Pete winning Iowa and NH.

Agreed. I'm not sure Biden would win Nevada if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. Maybe if he's coming in a close second in both. Under any scenrio, Bernard would be doomed.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2019, 02:12:08 PM »
The debate is gonna be super feisty at this rate
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SN2903
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2019, 02:15:19 PM »
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on November 12, 2019, 02:12:08 PM
The debate is gonna be super feisty at this rate
I hope Gabbard criticizes Pete
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2019, 02:18:38 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on November 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM
Nice to see Lizmentum has stopped.

Mayor Pete has a shot at winning Iowa, but I don't see him nominated regardless. When was the last time the Democratic nominee lost the black vote?
1988....

This is cute for Pete, but he's not going to win the nomination.
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History505
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« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2019, 02:19:18 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on November 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM
Nice to see Lizmentum has stopped.

Mayor Pete has a shot at winning Iowa, but I don't see him nominated regardless. When was the last time the Democratic nominee lost the black vote?
I think Dukasis in 1988.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2019, 02:23:03 PM »
Quote from: History505 on November 12, 2019, 02:19:18 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on November 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM
Nice to see Lizmentum has stopped.

Mayor Pete has a shot at winning Iowa, but I don't see him nominated regardless. When was the last time the Democratic nominee lost the black vote?
I think Dukasis in 1988.

Yeah, Jesse Jackson won the majority of the deep south in 88. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2019, 02:31:19 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on November 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM
Nice to see Lizmentum has stopped.

Mayor Pete has a shot at winning Iowa, but I don't see him nominated regardless. When was the last time the Democratic nominee lost the black vote?

Losing the black vote wouldn't be an issue, losing the black vote 90%-10% would be... and I'm probably being generous.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2019, 02:33:43 PM »
Glorious news!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2019, 02:34:28 PM »
AA support will come around for whomever the Dems nominates it's only Southern Blacks, where Trump will win anyways that are opposed to LGBT issues. Northern Blacks are accepting.  If Pete wins IA, Northern Blacks will propel him in the North to nomination
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2016
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« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2019, 02:37:57 PM »
Quote from: Arch on November 12, 2019, 01:40:48 PM
Welp. He's my second choice among the top candidates, so whatever. He might well pull off an Obama 2008.

He's clearly connecting well with voters if he's surging in Iowa and NH, where he's laser focused right now. If he can replicate that nationally, we might have something here.

It's not just that he connects well with Voters in IA, his Ground Game in that State is second-to-none already. It reminds me a little bit of the Ground Game Ted Cruz had during the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2019, 02:38:54 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on November 12, 2019, 02:34:28 PM
AA support will come around for whomever the Dems nominates it's only Southern Blacks, where Trump will win anyways that are opposed to LGBT issues. Northern Blacks are accepting.  If Pete wins IA, Northern Blacks will propel him in the North to nomination
Pete is going to need to do some serious outreach to get at least a respectable showing among African-Americans.  While Biden is likely to win with this group, he needs to get at least a 20% showing in order to have a prayer at the nomination.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #38 on: November 12, 2019, 03:16:01 PM »
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #39 on: November 12, 2019, 03:20:39 PM »
Mayo Pete
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brand_allen
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« Reply #40 on: November 12, 2019, 03:53:22 PM »
Anyone else catch that Pete's 17 points more popular than the 2nd most popular person in the poll, based on net favorability ratings?

Fav/unfav (net)

Buttigieg: 73/10% (+63)
Warren: 69/23% (+46)
Biden: 65/26% (+39)
Klobuchar: 54/18% (+36)
Sanders: 61/29% (+32)
Booker: 48/19% (+29)
Harris: 50/25% (+25)
Yang: 39/24% (+15)
Steyer: 33/29% (+4)
Gabbard: 21/38% (-17)
Bloomberg: 17/48% (-31)

Those Bloomberg numbers are de Blasio-ish.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #41 on: November 12, 2019, 04:20:54 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on November 12, 2019, 02:37:57 PM
Quote from: Arch on November 12, 2019, 01:40:48 PM
Welp. He's my second choice among the top candidates, so whatever. He might well pull off an Obama 2008.

He's clearly connecting well with voters if he's surging in Iowa and NH, where he's laser focused right now. If he can replicate that nationally, we might have something here.

It's not just that he connects well with Voters in IA, his Ground Game in that State is second-to-none already. It reminds me a little bit of the Ground Game Ted Cruz had during the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.

Actually I’d argue that Warren and Sanders have equally, if not more, impressive ground games than Pete. Booker’s also been pouring his entire war chest into building his up.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #42 on: November 12, 2019, 04:21:21 PM »

Got him!
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #43 on: November 12, 2019, 04:53:11 PM »
Bloomberg 0%


Lololololololololol

Bye a-hole!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #44 on: November 12, 2019, 04:54:39 PM »
Prez Pete Buttigieg 😎
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Ronnie
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« Reply #45 on: November 12, 2019, 05:06:16 PM »
It's kind of crazy that Buttigieg could feasibly win both Iowa and New Hampshire and proceed to lose the nomination.  If he does win both, though, I imagine it's lights out for Warren and Sanders.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #46 on: November 12, 2019, 05:24:46 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on November 12, 2019, 05:06:16 PM
It's kind of crazy that Buttigieg could feasibly win both Iowa and New Hampshire and proceed to lose the nomination.

Well, it wouldn't be the first time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmund_Muskie
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morgieb
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« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2019, 05:25:49 PM »
Welp, was a good party we had once!
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Xing
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« Reply #48 on: November 12, 2019, 05:26:45 PM »
A bit skeptical that Buttigieg would surge that much, but if more polls confirm this, I could see Buttigieg being competitive in Iowa. The problem for him is that unless the progressive base coalesces around him quickly after that, it's going to be very hard for him to beat Biden. I can't see him making much headway in the South.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2019, 06:26:51 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 12, 2019, 05:26:45 PM
A bit skeptical that Buttigieg would surge that much, but if more polls confirm this, I could see Buttigieg being competitive in Iowa. The problem for him is that unless the progressive base coalesces around him quickly after that, it's going to be very hard for him to beat Biden. I can't see him making much headway in the South.

We already know Biden has the South, they aren't supportive of SSM
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