2010 results by 5-9 member D'Hondt constituencies
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Author Topic: 2010 results by 5-9 member D'Hondt constituencies  (Read 5129 times)
minionofmidas
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« on: May 01, 2010, 05:16:28 AM »
« edited: May 08, 2010, 03:23:04 AM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

Yeah, obviously the results will be calculated after the elections.

I just drew the constituencies yesterday and right now.
Rules involved splitting as few local government boundaries (with counties having higher priority than districts) as possible, though I've decided to deviate in a number of places because that forced maps that weren't just suboptimal (as happened elsewhere too) but pointlessly bizarre.

London WC 5 (City to Hammersmith)
London NC 6 (Islington to Brent)
London EC 6 (Hackney to East Ham)
Ealing & Hounslow 5
Harrow & Hillingdon 5
North London 8 (Enfield, Barnet, "Haringey")
Essex London 9
London SC 8 (Southwark, Lambeth, Wandsworth)
London SW 5 (Merton, Kingston, Richmond)
Croydon & Sutton 5
Bromley & Lewisham 6
Greenwich & Bexley 5

Kent West 8 (Sittingbourne, Tonbridge & Malling, and points west)
Kent East 9
A three seat setup leaving Tonbridge and Sevenoaks away from the marginal country to the north would be preferable, but split districts like there's no tomorrow.
Surrey NW 5 (Spelthorne, Runnymede, Easher, Woking, Surrey Heath)
Surrey South 6
East Sussex 8
West Sussex 8
Southampton & Wight 6 (incl. Romsey, New Forest)
North Hampshire 5 (NE, NW, E, Basingstoke, Aldershot)
Portsmouth 8
This splits two districts. The things I'd draw if paying no attention to districts follow the same general setup but put Eastleigh with Southampton, probably Winchester and Meon Valley with the north, and split three districts minimum. There's a solution that splits only one, but that one the Southampton UA. There's also a bizarre solution that doesn't split anything at all: Portsmouth & Wight 5 incl. Gosport, Fareham; Winchester 5 incl. Havant, Eastleigh, E Hampshire, Meon Valley; North & West 9. I think the above is a compromise I can live with.
"Berkshire" 8
Oxfordshire 6
Buckinghamshire 7
Bedfordshire 6

Hertfordshire W 5 (Watford, SW, Hertsmere, Hemel Hempstead, St Albans)
Hertfordshire E 6
Essex South 7 (Thurrock, Basildon, Southend, Rochford, Castle Point)
Essex NW 5 (Epping, Harlow, Brentwood, Chelmsford, Walden)
Essex NE 6 (Maldon, Colchester, Braintree, Witham, Harwich, Clacton)
Suffolk 7
Norfolk 9
Cambridgeshire 7

Cornwall 6
Plymouth & Torbay 5 (incl Totnes, SW Devon)
North & Mid Devon 7
"Dorset" 8
Wiltshire 7
Somerset 9 (incl. North Somerset & Banes)
Bristol & South Gloucestershire 7
Gloucestershire 6

Shropshire & Herefordshire 7
Worcestershire 6
"Warwickshire" 6
Coventry & Solihull 5
Birmingham North 5 (Erdington, Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Perry Barr, Sutton)
Birmingham South 5 (Yardley, Hall Green, Edgbaston Selly Oak, Northfield)
Dudley & "Sandwell" 7
Walsall & Wolverhampton 6 IIRC there's a bit of Wolves in a Dudley constituency.
Staffordshire North 6 (Stoke, Newcastle, Moorlands, Stone)
Staffordshire South 6

Northamptonshire 7
West Leicestershire 5
Leicester & Rutland 5 (incl. Harborough)
Certainly not the map I'd've come up with ignoring districts, but Leicestershire's suburbs-to-county-line constituencies and inflexible seat number always insured an ugly result anyways, and this is the only map splitting only one district. I sort of looked at it for a while and my dislike ebbed away.
Derbyshire North 5 (Chesterfield et al, Peak, Dales)
Derybshire South 6
There are several slight alterations possible, but this'll do.
Nottingham 5 (includes Broxtowe, Gedling)
Nottinghamshire 6
Holland & Kesteven 5 Lincolnshire except Gainsborough and Louth & Horncastle
Lindsey 6 those two, Humberside up to Brigg & Goole

East Yorkshire 6 Remainder
Sheffield 6 incl. Penistone
Barnsley, Rotherham & Doncaster 8
Bradford 5
Kirklees & Calderdale 6
Leeds 6 incl. Pudsey, excl. Elmet, Morley
Wakefield & Elmet 5
North Yorkshire 8

Cheshire North West 6 Halton, Warrington, Vale Royal, Ellesmere Port, Chester
Cheshire South East 5 remainder
Bolton & Wigan 6
I spent a while splitting Cheshire into two, and it's obvious what the map would have to have been, but it's still ugly due to the ugly Weaver Vale constituency. Then it occurred to me to put Warrington back into Lancashire whence it came in 1974.
Manchester 9 incl. Salford, Trafford
Stockport & Tameside 6
Bury, Rochdale & Oldham 6 excl. bit of Oldham in Ashton constituency
Liverpool & Wirral 9 incl. small part of Knowsley
Saint Helens & Sefton 6 incl. most of Knowsley
Mid Lancashire 9
A nod to traditional county lines...
North Lancashire 7 Preston and points north. Ribble Valley is in Mid.
No districts were split in the making of this constituency.
Cumbria 6

Cleveland 6
County Durham 7
Gateshead & Wearside 7
Northumberland 9
Yes, that is pre-1974 Northumberland. But post-74 Durham.

Monmouthshire & Brecon 6
Mid Glamorgan 8
Or Islwyn, Caerphilly, Merthyr could be transferred en bloc to Monmouth (which would need to be called & Merthyr)
South Glamorgan 5
West Glamorgan 5
Clwyd & Montgomery 8
West Wales 8
Alternative results leaving Aberconwy in West Wales will be calculated.

Highland 7 incl. Argyll, Moray, Islands
Aberdeenshire 5
Tayside 5
Fife & Central 8 incl. Stirling, Falkirk, West Lothian
Edinburgh & East Lothian 7 incl. Midlothian
Glasgow 7
Ayrshire & Renfrewshire 8
North Lanarkshire & Dumbarton 6
South Lanarkshire & Borders 6 incl. Dumfries & Galloway

Belfast & Antrim 7
Down & Armagh 6
West Northern Ireland 5
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2010, 07:17:21 AM »

Cool! Smiley

(limited knowledge on British geography, so no help from me there)
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2010, 02:48:53 PM »

Heh, fun. I'll do this for the Minnesota House sometime.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2010, 06:13:44 PM »

Someone please furnish maps.
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2010, 04:15:34 AM »


Your wish is my command:


Yeah, obviously the results will be calculated after the elections.

I just drew the constituencies yesterday and right now.
Rules involved splitting as few local government boundaries (with counties having higher priority than districts) as possible, though I've decided to deviate in Hampshire and Nottinghamshire because that forced maps that weren't just suboptimal (as happened elsewhere too) but pointlessly bizarre.

There are a few places where there's an alternative solution, and I'm interested in feedback. Any alterations will have to have been done before the polls close.

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Wight is so large this would probably be nearer seven seats.

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Probably Hitchin should be in East and Harpenden in West.

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That seems absolutely fine to me - you've respected the old Gloucestershire/Somerset boundary for one thing.

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Still not nice though.  Personally I would do
Herefordshire & Shropshire 7
Worcestershire 6
but that's just my opinion.

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Humberside was ugly anyway and the southern unitaries should be part of Lincolnshire in my opinion.  Put Haltemprice back with Hull and move Gainsborough into the southern Humber seat (I don't think this breaks any more district boundaries BICBW):
Lincolnshire North 5 (Brigg/Goole, Sc**nthorpe, Cleethorpes, Grimsby, Gainsborough)
Lincolnshire South 6
Yorkshire East Riding 6

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ITYM incl Pudsey - Shipley is in your Bradford seat.

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Some bits of that are not nice at all, particularly Bolton/Wigan/Warrington which you've put me in.  If you're going to cross the GtMcr/Cheshire boundary to take in Warrington then you can just as well cross the Cheshire/Merseyside boundary if only to take the Wirral in.

My counter-proposal:

Chester and Wirral 6 (the Wirral, Ellesmere Port, City of Chester)
Cheshire 6 (not incl Halton and Warrington)
Bolton and Wigan 6
Liverpool and Southport 9 (incl Knowsley)
Warrington, St Helens and Halton 5

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Gateshead and Wearside is only 7 (Blaydon, Gateshead, Jarrow, South Shields and the three Sunderland seats).

I would have preferred to split Cleveland along the River Tees but the numbers don't support that idea (and it would involve splitting Stockton South).  The above is the next best plan.

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Dyfed and Gwynedd are separated by a river estuary with no crossing between them, so they're not suitable for pairing together.  Powys will have to go in with Dyfed for 7, which leaves 10 for Clwyd and Gwynedd which has to be two 5-seaters.  The obvious eastern seat is Vale of Clwyd/Delyn/Alyn/Wrexham plus either Clwyd South or Clwyd West, either of which results in an awful boundary and severe naming problems.

Perhaps a better solution would be to split Powys up.  Throw Brecon and Radnor in with either Dyfed or Monmouth for 6, have a 6-seater for the pre-1995 Clwyd (excl Aberconwy) and a 5-seater for Gwynedd (incl Aberconwy) and Montgomery.

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The only connection between the two halves of this seat is the Kincardine Bridge - are you OK with that?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2010, 05:03:14 AM »

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Wight is so large this would probably be nearer seven seats.[/quote]
Yeah, I just went with seat sums for simplicity, but "realistically" you're right - no reason to continue the underrepresentation of Wight in this scenario.
I'll probably just add the info on who'd get a seventh seat as an aside.
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Probably Hitchin should be in East and Harpenden in West.

[/quote]That's running into obvious problems though as long as ward figures are not released. Tongue

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Yeah, fine with me. (I really want to hear from Al on this one, though. Smiley )

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Humberside was ugly anyway and the southern unitaries should be part of Lincolnshire in my opinion.  Put Haltemprice back with Hull and move Gainsborough into the southern Humber seat (I don't think this breaks any more district boundaries BICBW)Sad/quote]It does, but only on account of a single East Lindsey ward. And yes, it is nicer (esp. since while it doesn't respect the modern border of the East Riding UA, it actually follows the East Riding's historic boundary in that area - Goole used to be in the West Riding.)

Now I think about it... why not go uber-traditional?
Holland & Kesteven 5
Lindsey 6 (plus Louth and Horncastle seat. Still lacks Skegness.)
East Riding 6?
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Just checking - you aware that part of Halton is in Weaver Vale and St Helens South extends into Knowsley now?
Just out of interest - why put Chester with the Wirral? Ellesmere Port could have just as easily been included in it in 1974 (and at least part of it is in what was once upon a time the Wirral Rural District.)

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Right, my bad. (Same with getting the eys west of Leeds mixed up.)

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Just cause you need to go through Machynlleth? There are obvious demographic justifications for that constituency though, uniting the bulk of Cymru Gymraeg.

The splitting of Powys probably makes a lot of sense... or would if we could put Montgomery in with Clwyd (which incidentally would be closer in design to the medieval Powys than the current thing is!) and Brecon with Monmouthshire. Aberconwy would be better off in Gwynnedd of course... (even the boundary commission respected the old boundary, drawing an undersized seat as a result... not after a local hearing, but of their own accord!) but Montgomery just doesn't really belong there - all in all I don't see the new maps we're discussing here as less awkward to anything like the degree needed to justify the UA splits.

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Meh. Fife has to go someplace. In the other version, Midlothian doesn't border East Lothian at all.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2010, 06:18:55 AM »

Although Herefordshire doesn't really fit with anywhere else, pairing it with Shropshire has the obvious advantage of keeping most of the Marches in one district and there are strong links between the area around Ludlow and the area around Leominster (not always entirely friendly links, but that's not the point) and is probably the best solution. Worcestershire is culturally quite different; Gloucestershire has more in common with Herefordshire than Worcestershire does, especially these days.

Having Brecon & Radnor in the same district as Deeside is... an interesting idea.

The North East is always going to be a little problematic with this sort of thing, yeah. You could always create a Tyneside seat and work from their, but then you'll have a big problem with rural Northumberland.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2010, 06:30:32 AM »

A'right, Hereford & Shropshire it shall be.

Not decided yet what to do with Lincolnshire, rural Wales and the Northwest.
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2010, 01:56:17 PM »

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Just checking - you aware that part of Halton is in Weaver Vale and St Helens South extends into Knowsley now?
Just out of interest - why put Chester with the Wirral? Ellesmere Port could have just as easily been included in it in 1974 (and at least part of it is in what was once upon a time the Wirral Rural District.)

Well, you're splitting Cheshire West anyway.  Also the four Wirral seats are very undersized and with just Ellesmere Port and Neston thrown in the electorate might not be acceptably close to five seats.

Had forgotten about the Halton and St Helens S/Whiston problems though.
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2010, 02:36:30 PM »

You're an excellent fellow, Andrew.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2010, 04:04:46 PM »

When I do the tallies for Western Wales (as I think it would be called) I will do a tally with Aberconwy and one without to see if it makes a difference.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2010, 12:35:59 PM »

The Cheshire/Merseyside problem again...

Cheshire North West 6
Warrington, Halton, Weaver Vale, Ellesmere Port, Chester
Cheshire South East 5
this was what I drew first, before thinking of removing Warrington. It's phenomenally ugly around Northwich, but is probably broadly sensible and splits only one of the four UAs.
Wigan & Bolton 6
Liverpool & Wirral 9
Sefton & St Helens 6
inc. Knowsley constituency. Small part of Knowsley Borough is in Liverpool & Wirral.

?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2010, 01:55:47 PM »

'Kay, unless I'M hearing from anyone til thursday, I'll be going with
The Cheshire/Merseyside problem again...

Cheshire North West 6
Warrington, Halton, Weaver Vale, Ellesmere Port, Chester
Cheshire South East 5
Wigan & Bolton 6
Liverpool & Wirral 9
Sefton & St Helens 6
inc. Knowsley constituency. Small part of Knowsley Borough is in Liverpool & Wirral.

Holland & Kesteven 5
Lindsey 6 (plus Louth and Horncastle seat. Still lacks Skegness.)
East Riding 6

and with a Monmouth & Brecon sixseater, Montgomery to stay with Clwyd. And Harry's suggestion of doing both versions for the Aberconwy constituency.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2010, 04:31:59 PM »

Warwickshire (6 seats)
Con 131,303
Lab 79,428
Lib Dem 58,837

No other parties qualify

Conservatives win the 1st seat
Labour win the 2nd seat
Conservatives win the 3rd seat
Liberal Democrats win the 4th seat
Conservatives win the 5th seat
Labour win the 6th seat

Tally (and change): Con 3 (-3) Lab 2 (+2) Lib Dem 1 (+1)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2010, 04:41:37 PM »

Western Wales (10 seats / 9 seats)

Labour 84,531 77,195
Conservatives 81,242 70,508
Plaid Cymru 80,029 74,688
Liberal Democrats 53,881 48,095

No other parties qualify

With Aberconwy: Con 3 Lab 3 Lib Dem 2 Plaid 2
Without Aberconwy: Con 2 Lab 3 Lib Dem 2 Plaid 2
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2010, 04:33:26 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 05:35:25 AM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

West Central London 5 seats
electorate 337,916 (note: because the BBC are lazy and I'm too lazy to search for a different source, this is an approximate figure calculated from constituency turnouts.)
turnout 198,987 58.9%
Con 47.0      2 (-1)
Labour 31.5 2
LD 17.1        1 (+1)
other 4.4
Very close for the last seat between Con and Labour, with the LDs also less than a mile ahead for the fourth seat. Change is, of course, on actual seat distribution.

North Central London 6 seats
electorate 460,314
turnout 293,202 63.7%
Labour 43.8 3 (-2)
LD 29.8        2 (+1)
Con 22.1      1 (+1)
other 4.3

East Central London 6 seats
electorate 478,844
turnout 284,069 59.3%
Labour 54.5  4 (-2)
LD 16.7         1 (+1)
Con 16.5      1 (+1)
Respect 5.9
other 6.5
Respect only contested the two Tower Hamlets seats, despite polling 20% in Newham last time around. Had they been on the ballot everywhere (as they would automatically be under PR), there's an off chance they might have taken the sixth seat, especially as most of their vote would have come from Labour (assuming a straight Labour-to-Respect swing they'd have needed 12.1%. It's unlikely, all things considered.)

Ealing & Hounslow 5 seats
electorate 356,330
turnout 239,925 67.3%
Labour 41.5 2 (-1)
Con 34.2      2 (0)
LD 18.8        1 (+1)
other 5.6

Harrow & Hillingdon 5 seats
electorate 352,126
turnout 232,040 65.9%
Con 43.8      2 (-1)
Labour 35.3 2 (0)
LD 15.2        1 (+1)
other 5.7
Fairly narrow for the LDs versus a third Conservative.

North London 8 seats
electorate 577,811
turnout 360,050 63.9%
Labour 39.0 3 (+1)
Con 36.3      3 (-2)
LD 19.7         2 (+1)
other 5.0
Another very tight LD-held seat. RL seat distribution here is so bad for Labour because it includes the safe seat of Tottenham and the now-safe seat of Edmonton (which was actually Con held until 97, hard to imagine as it is now) and also Hornsey & Wood Green where the con vote is depressed due to tactical votes for the victorious Lib Dem, while the comparatively marginal seats to the north are now all Con held again (Southgate and Finchley since 2005, Enfield N notionally since the boundary changes, Hendon by 106 votes after a swing well below the national average but well above the London average.)

Essex London 9 seats
electorate 632,600
turnout 410,982 65.0%
Labour 37.1 4 (-1)
Con 36.4      4 (0)
LD 15.9         1 (+1)
BNP 5.1
UKIP 3.1
other 2.4
It is my policy to list all parties retaining at least one deposit. BNP had only seven candidates, and ought to have gotten a decent result from Ilford South (if the Leyton result is any indication, the absence of a BNP candidate in Walthamstow is forgettable.) Still wouldn't have gotten really close to a seat.

South Central London 8 seats
electorate 590,040
turnout 369,784 62.7%
Labour 41.9 4 (-1)
Con 28.7      2 (0)
LD 25.5        2 (+1)
other 3.9

South West London 5 seats
electorate 368,331
turnout 267,292 72.6%
Con 39.3      2 (0)
LD 38.7        2 (0)
Labour 18.0 1 (0)
other 4.0

Croydon & Sutton 5 seats
electorate 378,585
turnout 252,183 66.6%
Con 39.0      2 (0)
LD 28.1        2 (0)
Labour 25.5 1 (0)
other 7.4
An independent retained his deposit in Croydon Central, but that's just 1.3% across the two boroughs combined. [/googles said independent] Ah yes.
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Bromley & Lewisham 6 seats
electorate 401,400
turnout 268,601 66.9%
Con 39.9      3 (0)
Labour 28.7  2 (-1)
LD 24.4         1 (+1)
Green 2.3
other 4.7
LDs came second everywhere here (and are unlucky in the D'Hondt count). Greens had candidates everywhere, but outside of Deptford did badly - indeed the Greens had a very bad night nationally as all those antiwar votes came back to Labour (they saved their deposits in places like Hackney and Islington last time around). Brighton Pav result makes that easy to ignore.

Greenwich & Bexley 5 seats
electorate 328,655
turnout 214,302 65.2%
Con 40.0      2 (0)
Labour 35.9 2 (-1)
LD 14.2       1 (+1)
BNP 4.3
other 5.6

London, summed
73 seats, electorate 5.265 million
Turnout 64.6%
Labour 36.6 30 (-8)    28 (-10)
Con 34.5      26 (-2)    26 (-2)
LD 22.1        17 (+10) 16 (+9)
UKIP 1.7                       1 (+1)
Greens 1.6                   1 (+1)
BNP 1.5                        1 (+1)
Respect 0.5
other 1.4

Last set of figures is regional D'Hondt. Hare-Niemeyer has Labour 27, UKIP 2.
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KuntaKinte
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2010, 05:49:08 AM »


That's very interesting, I'm following this.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2010, 06:44:21 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2010, 03:33:52 AM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

Surrey North West 5 seats
Electorate 369,815
Turnout 257,130 69.5%
Con 54.1      3 (-2)
LD 27.2         2 (+2)
Labour 11.6
UKIP 5.6
other 1.5
Would have almost split 4-1.

Surrey South 6 seats
Electorate 454,248
Turnout 326,723 71.9%
Con 56.0     4 (-2)
LD 29.6        2 (+2)
Labour 8.3
UKIP 4.2
other 1.9

Kent North West 8 seats
Electorate 578,997
Turnout 385,247 66.5%
Con 50.6      5 (-3)
Labour 24.2 2 (+2)
LD 17.1        1 (+1)
UKIP 3.4        
other 4.7
No UKIP candidate in Rochester. The Lab to Con swings here are a sight to see, btw.

Kent East 9 seats
Electorate 658,834
Turnout 442,815 67.2%
Con 50.4      5 (-4)
LD 24.2        2 (+2)
Labour 18.4 2 (+2)
UKIP 4.4
other 2.6

East Sussex 8 seats
Electorate 591,981
Turnout 405,940 68.6%
Con 40.9      4 (-1)
LD 26.3        2 (0)
Labour 20.1 2 (+2)
Greens 5.7   0 (-1)
UKIP 2.8
other 4.2
91% of the Green vote comes from the three Brighton & Hove seats... as they had no candidates in either Bexhill & Battle, Eastbourne, or Hastings & Rye. And the latter two ought to have given them better results than Lewes and Wealden did. It probably wouldn't have been enough, but it would have been tight (they'd obviously have been targetting the whole county rather than just Brighton Pavilion). UKIP had no candidate in Bexhill either.
Labour may have topped the poll in Brighton & Hove, btw - the Tories were ahead by 485 votes across the three seats, but Kemptown is partly outside the UA. OTOH, Labour lost their deposit in Eastbourne.

West Sussex 8 seats
Electorate 606,414
Turnout 416,341 68.7%
Con 51.8      5 (-3)
LD 27.4        2 (+2)
Labour 13.1 1 (+1)
UKIP 5.2
other 2.5

Southampton & Wight 6 seats
Electorate 465,035
Turnout 305,410 65.7%
Con 46.6      3 (-1)
LD 28.8        2 (+2)
Labour 17.7 1 (-1)
UKIP 4.2
other 2.8
Labour strenght concentrated in Southampton. I said I'd see what a seventh seat would do here, and it would go to the Tories... but I also note there is no reason why the area should have seven seats.

Portsmouth & Winchester 8 seats
Electorate 580,625
Turnout 391,412 67.4%
Con 47.8      4 (-2)
LD 32.4         3 (+1)
Labour 13.5  1 (+1)
UKIP 3.5
other 2.9

North Hampshire 5 seats
Electorate 368,029
Turnout 253,586 68.9%
Con 54.8      3 (-2)
LD 27.5        2 (+2)
Labour 12.6
UKIP 4.2
other 0.9
Last seat ultraclose between Con and LD (67 votes on a straight swing), with Labour not really far behind either. Except for one English Democrat, all the others were independents or stood for wholly obscure parties.

Berkshire 8 seats
Electorate 603,256
Turnout 413,822 68.6%
Con 50.6      5 (-2)
LD 25.2        2 (+2)
Labour 18.0 1 (0)
other 6.2
Labour lost their deposit in Newbury.

Oxfordshire 6 seats
Electorate 489,532
Turnout 332,002 67.8%
Con 47.1      3 (-2)
LD 28.0        2 (+2)
Labour 18.0 1 (0)
other 6.8

Buckinghamshire 7 seats
Electorate 548,947
Turnout 363,812 66.3%
Con 44.3      4 (-2)
LD 20.9         2 (+2)
Labour 15.5  1 (+1)
Speaker 6.3  0 (-1)
UKIP 6.2      
BCfD 2.8
other 3.9

Treating the Speaker as part of the Tory list doesn't change the seat distribution. Of course, Labour and the LDs didn't stand in Buckingham, and the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy (former MEP John Stevens on a platform of 1.John Bercow is not a real Tory 2.John Bercow is implicated in the expenses scandal 3.Nigel Farage is a nutter 4.John Bercow is not a real Tory 5.John Bercow is not a real Tory) stood only there.

Buckinghamshire sans Buckingham:
Con 51.1       4 (-2)
LD 24.1         1 (+1)
Labour 17.9  1 (+1)
UKIP 4.5
other 2.4

South East, summed
Using the official definition of the region (which I don't agree with).
84 seats, electorate 6.315 million
Turnout 68.0%
Con 49.3       48 (-26)  43 (-31)
LD 26.2         24 (+20) 23 (+19)
Labour 16.2  12 (+8)   14 (+10)
UKIP 4.1                        3 (+3)
Greens 1.4     0 (-1)       1 (0)
Speaker 0.6   0 (-1)        0 (-1)
other 2.1

Bizarrely, what's done with the Speaker's vote has no effect on the regional D'Hondt distribution either. Regional Hare-Niemeyer is 41 Con, 22 LD, 14 Labour, 4 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 BNP (0.7%), 1 Speaker. Add the Speaker's vote to the Con tally, and it's 42 Con seats... so again not really any effect.
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2010, 11:59:28 AM »
« Edited: May 09, 2010, 01:41:58 PM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

Bedfordshire 6 seats
Electorate 429,903
Turnout 291,559 67.8%
Con 44.7      3 (-1)
Labour 27.1 2 (0)
LD 20.3        1 (+1)
UKIP 3.8
other 4.1

Hertfordshire West 5 seats
Electorate 374,992
Turnout 261,534 69.7%
Con 47.0      3 (-2)
LD 27.7        1 (+1)
Labour 19.0 1 (+1)
other 6.3

Hertfordshire East 6 seats
Electorate 436,774
Turnout 299,790 68.6%
Con 53.3      4 (-2)
LD 20.8        1 (+1)
Labour 18.9 1 (+1)
other 6.9

Essex South 7 seats
Electorate 511,100 according to unreasonable BBC figures on Thurrock turnout/ 496,477 based on turnout figure I found at yourthurrock.com
Turnout 314,792 63.4%
Con 47.1      4 (-3)
Labour 21.8  2 (+2)
LD 16.0         1 (+1)
BNP 5.0
UKIP 4.4 / 8.3
Bob Spink 3.9
Bob Spink used to be Tory MP for Castle Point who defected to UKIP, then left UKIP and sat - and now stood - as an Independent. He had no UKIP opponent however and probably ought to be considered as basically the UKIP candidate. He got a whopping 27% and beat Labour into third place.

Essex North West 5
Electorate 363,552
Turnout 250,075 68.8%
Con 51.6     3 (-2)
LD 25.1        1 (+1)
Labour 15.1 1 (+1)
other 8.2

Essex North East 6 seats
Electorate 418,673
Turnout 282,195 67.4%
Con 49.6      4 (-1)
LD 23.8         1 (0)
Labour 18.0  1 (+1)
UKIP 4.2
other 4.4
UKIP lacked a candidate in Clacton.

Suffolk 7 seats
Electorate 541,592
Turnout 364,618 67.3%
Con 46.2      4 (-3)
LD 24.1         2 (+2)
Labour 21.2  1 (+1)
UKIP 5.3
other 3.2

Norfolk 9 seats
Electorate 648,095
Turnout 438,226 67.6%
Con 43.1      4 (-3)
LD 27.8         3 (+1)
Labour 19.0  2 (+2)
UKIP 4.6
Greens 3.2
other 2.3
Over half the Green vote comes from Norwich South... even though they stood in all constituencies in Norfolk.
Oh, and while the last two broke very favorably for the Tories, here they're unlucky somewhat.

Cambridgeshire 7 seats
Electorate 555,163
Turnout 376,528 67.8%
Con 45.0      4 (-2)
LD 29.0        2 (+1)
Labour 16.2 1 (+1)
UKIP 5.1
Greens 1.8
Obviously, Green deposit and only non-joke result is in Cambridge. They lacked candidates in NE and NW Cambridgeshire.

Eastern, summed
58 seats, electorate of 4.278 mio.
Turnout 67.3%
Con 47.1      33 (-19)  29 (-23)
LD 24.1        13 (+9)   14 (+10)
Labour 19.6 12 (+10)  12 (+10)
UKIP 4.3 (4.7 including Bob Spink) 2 (+2) (irrespective of Spink)
BNP 2.1                        1 (+1)
Greens 1.5
other 1.4 (0.9 excluding Bob Spink)

Hare-Niemeyer is 27 Con, 3 UKIP (still nevermind Spink), 1 Green.
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« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2010, 04:52:10 AM »

Cornwall 6 seats
Electorate 418,733
Turnout 280,881 67.1%
LD 41.8     3 (0)
Con 40.9   3 (0)
Labour 8.6
UKIP 4.9
other 3.8
Another lost Labour deposit in North Cornwall... where they were outpolled by UKIP.

Plymouth & Torbay 5 seats
Electorate 352,492
Turnout 232,333 65.9%
Con 42.1      2 (-1)
LD 30.1        2 (+1)
Labour 18.2 1 (0)
UKIP 6.3
other 3.3

North & Mid Devon 7 seats
Electorate 519,493
Turnout 368,967 71.0%
Con 44.1      3 (-2)
LD 35.4        3 (+2)
Labour 11.7 1 (+1)
UKIP 6.0
other 2.7
Almost half the Labour vote cast for the cultural degenerate with the sterile, disease-ridden and god-forsaken occupation. Outside of Exeter, Labour retained all deposits but were still outpolled by UKIP in two constituencies.
Tories unlucky in the D'Hondt distribution in both Devon constituencies... a single twelve-seater would have split 6-4-2.

Dorset 8 seats
Electorate 573,324
Turnout 391,111 68.2%
Con 48.3    5 (-2)
LD 32.8      3 (+2)
Labour 9.6
UKIP 5.6
other 3.7
Labour barely lose out. Just 168 voters would need to switch from Tory to Labour.

Wiltshire 7 seats
Electorate 495,793
Turnout 342,337 69.0%
Con 47.7      4 (-2)
LD 30.4        2 (+1)
Labour 15.3 1 (+1)
UKIP 4.0
other 2.6

Somerset 9 seats
Electorate 691,074
Turnout 495,225 71.7%
LD 42.1        4 (-1)
Con 41.7      4 (0)
Labour 10.9 1 (+1)
other 5.3
Somerset's actually replaced Cornwall as the LD's strongest county. Across the smaller Somerset County Council area it's 45.1 to 41.5 and 4-1 in seats. Labour lose their deposit in Somerton & Frome.

Bristol & South Gloucestershire 7 seats
Electorate 503,701
Turnout 343,510 68.2%
LD 32.8        3 (+1)
Con 32.0      2 (-1)
Labour 28.1 2 (0)
other 7.1
Fascinating results here as except for Labour in Thornbury & Yate, all the parties are more or less viable everywhere, so there's no point to tactical voting. (LDs in Kingswood is debatable.)

Gloucestershire 6 seats
Electorate 458,410
Turnout 319,079 69.6%
Con 44.8      3 (-2)
LD 28.7         2 (+1)
Labour 21.0  1 (+1)
UKIP 3.6
other 2.0

South West, summed
55 seats, electorate of 4.014 mio.
Turnout 69.1%
Con 42.8      26 (-10) 25 (-11)
LD 34.7        22 (+7)  20 (+5)
Labour 15.4   7 (+3)    8 (+4)
UKIP 4.5                       2 (+2)
Greens 1.1
other 1.5

Hare has Cons at 24, LDs at 19, Labour at 9 and the Greens at 1.
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« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2010, 06:37:48 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2010, 07:48:31 AM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

Shropshire & Herefordshire 7 seats
Electorate 489,696
Turnout 336,876 68.8%
Con 47.4      4 (-2)
LD 27.1         2 (+2)
Labour 17.5  1 (0)
UKIP 4.5
other 3.6

Worcestershire 6 seats
Electorate 436,137
Turnout 300,495 68.9%
Con 44.9      4 (-2)
LD 21.9         1 (+1)
Labour 19.8  1 (+1)
ICHC 5.4
UKIP 4.2
other 3.9

Warwickshire 6 seats (major party totals courtesy of Harry; I didn't verify)
Electorate 404,136
Turnout 287,384 71.1%
Con 45.7      3 (-3)
Labour 27.6 2 (+2)
LD 20.5        1 (+1)
BNP 2.6
other 3.6
BNP did not contest Warwick & Leamington and Kenilworth & Southam constituencies.

Coventry & Solihull 5 seats
Electorate 378,574
Turnout 243,158 64.2%
Con 36.6      2 (+1)
Labour 31.3 2 (-1)
LD 23.3        1 (0)
other 8.8

Birmingham North 5 seats
Electorate 360,827
Turnout 206,485 57.2%
Labour 42.8 3 (-1)
Con 27.6      1 (0)
LD 22.1         1 (+1)
BNP 2.9
other 4.6
Close shave for Labour's third seat. BNP did not contest Perry Barr or Ladywood (which promptly saw the best UKIP results. Ahem.)

Birmingham South 5 seats
Electorate 363,730
Turnout 219,525 60.4%
Labour 36.8 2 (-2)
Con 27.0      2 (+2)
LD 23.4        1 (0)
Respect 5.6
BNP 3.4
other 3.7
BNP did not contest Hall Green. Respect only contested Hall Green. And incidentally figures as something of a spoiler candidate here... Labour probably would have gotten a third seat without Yaqoob's presence.


Dudley & Sandwell 7 seats
Electorate 445,814
Turnout 280,371 62.9%
Labour 40.2 3 (-1)
Con 35.7      3 (0)
LD 14.1         1 (+1)
UKIP 5.7
BNP 3.3
other 1.0
BNP contested only four constituencies (and saved three deposits).

Walsall & Wolverhampton 6 seats
Electorate 368,291
Turnout 225,404 61.2%
Con 39.0      3 (+1)
Labour 37.2 2 (-2)
LD 15.0        1 (+1)
UKIP 4.7
BNP 2.4
other 1.7
UKIP had no candidate in Aldridge-Brownhills. BNP contested only Wolves NE and Walsall N, and saved their deposit in both. Tories really piled on the vote in Aldridge-Brownhills while of the Labour seats only Wolves SE is safe, hence their popular vote lead.
Black Country constituencies (west of Birmingham) are noticeably undersized btw.

Staffordshire South 6 seats
Electorate 438,804
Turnout 294,014 67.0%
Con 47.1      3 (-3)
Labour 28.3 2 (+2)
LD 17.1        1 (+1)
UKIP 4.3
other 3.2

Staffordshire North 6 seats
Electorate 399,568
Turnout 246,753 61.8%
Con 35.0      3 (+1)
Labour 34.5 2 (-2)
LD 19.0        1 (+1)
UKIP 6.0
BNP 3.8
other 1.7
Just as in Walsall & Wolves, Tories win a plurality of the vote through turnout differentials - if people in Stoke had thought their votes would matter, Labour would have been ahead here. BNP contested only the Stoke seats.

West Midlands, summed
59 seats, electorate of 4.087 mio.
turnout 64.6%
Con 39.5      28 (-5)  25 (-8)
Labour 30.6 20 (-4)  19 (-5)
LD 20.5        11 (+9)  12 (+10)
UKIP 4.0                     2 (+2)
BNP 2.8                      1 (+1)
other 2.6

Hare-Niemeyer is Con 23, Labour 18, UKIP 3, BNP 2 and hilariously ICHC (0.6% regionally) 1.
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« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2010, 11:39:22 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2010, 12:52:43 PM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

Northamptonshire 7 seats
Electorate 508,616
Turnout 344,082 67.7%
Con 47.4      4 (-3)
Labour 25.7  2 (+2)
LD 19.1         1 (+1)
other 7.8 (includes independent councillor and former Labour MP Tony Clarke, who retained his deposit in Northampton South with what is just 0.7% of the countywide total vote).

West Leicestershire 5 seats
Electorate 376,756
Turnout 266,883 70.8%
Con 45.6      3 (-2)
Labour 24.2 1 (+1)
LD 22.3        1 (+1)
BNP 5.1
other 2.8

Leicester & Rutland 5 seats
Electorate 370,120
Turnout 65.1%
Con 35.9      2 (0)
Labour 31.5 2 (-1)
LD 24.4        1 (+1)
BNP 3.6
other 4.5

Derbyshire North 5 seats
Electorate 351,328
Turnout 233,978 66.6%
Labour 35.4 2 (-1)
Con 33.5      2 (0)
LD 24.2        1 (+1)
UKIP 4.0
BNP 1.1
other 1.8
BNP contested only Bolsover.

Derybshire South 6
Electorate 419,193
Turnout 277,629 66.2%
Con 39.0      3 (-1)
Labour 33.7  2 (0)
LD 19.4         1 (+1)
BNP 4.1
other 3.7
no BNP candidate in Derby South.

Nottingham 5 seats
Electorate 332,388
Turnout 209,103 62.9%
Labour 41.6 2 (-2)
Con 32.7      2 (+1)
LD 18.9        1 (+1)
BNP 2.9
no BNP candidate in Nottingham East.

Nottinghamshire 6 seats
Electorate 449,733
Turnout 300,037 66.7%
Con 38.2      3 (0)
Labour 33.9 2 (-1)
LD 19.4        1 (+1)
UKIP 3.8
BNP 2.2
Mansfield Independent Forum 1.4
BNP stood only in Sherwood, Ashfield and Mansfield. As the name implies, Mansfield Independent Forum stood only in Mansfield (where it's a real enough party in local government).

Holland & Kesteven 5 seats
Electorate 383,539
Turnout 251,363 65.5%
Con 49.9      3 (-2)
Labour 20.5 1 (+1)
LD 18.3        1 (+1)
UKIP 4.8
Lincolnshire Independents 1.2
other 4.6
What's the deal with the latter group? Candidates in the two rural Kesteven seats (and in Louth & Horncastle over in Lindsey), one of which did ok, the other at joke levels.

Lindsey 6 seats
Electorate 411,790
Turnout 258,573 62.8%
Con 42.6      3 (-1)
Labour 27.5 2 (0)
LD 20.8        1 (+1)
UKIP 5.0
other 4.2

East Midlands, summed
50 seats, electorate 3.607 mio
Turnout 66.1%
Con 41.0      25 (-8) 21 (-12)
Labour 30.1 16 (-1) 16 (-1)
LD 20.6        9 (+9)  11 (+11)
UKIP 4.0                     1 (+1)
BNP 3.6                      1 (+1)
other 2.1

Hare is Labour 15, LD 10, UKIP 2, BNP 2.
Note that due to the traditionalist constituency cut, this definition of the East Midlands differs from the commonly used one in including North and NE Lincolnshire, and even the Goole area.
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2010, 04:08:21 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2010, 03:10:37 AM by the Pooka MacPhellimey »

East Yorkshire 6 seats
Electorate 430,924
Turnout 252,172 58.5%
Con 35.8      2 (-1)
Labour 28.6 2 (-1)
LD 25.2        2 (+2)
UKIP 3.9
other 6.5
No UKIP candidate in Haltemprice & Howden.

Barnsley, Rotherham & Doncaster 8 seats
Electorate 563,775
Turnout 328,425 58.3%
Labour 44.3 5 (-3)
Con 21.8      2 (+2)
LD 17.2        1 (+1)
BNP 7.3
UKIP 5.1
ED 1.7
other 2.5
English Democrats only stood in the Doncaster seats, where there is, after all, an English Democrat Mayor (they saved only one deposit, but probably cost the BNP and UKIP two each. Grin ). An independent councillor saved his deposit in Rotherham, polling 0.7% of the total.

Sheffield 6 seats
Electorate 408,869
Turnout 260,312 63.7%
Labour 39.1 3 (-2)
LD 31.9        2 (+1)
Con 19.0      1 (+1)
BNP 4.1
other 5.8
BNP lacked a candidate in Nick Clegg's seat of Sheffield Hallam.

Bradford 5 seats
Electorate 324,787
Turnout 216,147 66.6%
Con 36.3      2 (0)
Labour 36.3 2 (0)
LD 19.6        1 (0)
BNP 3.6
other 4.2
Tories ahead by 87 votes. BNP lacked a candidate in Keighley. This result would produce about as disproportional seat distributions as are possible under a PR system if it happened in a 3 or 4 or 6 member seat... but with five it works out perfectly fine. And due to that narrow (and surprising, to me) LD gain it worked out perfectly fine under fptp too. Cheesy

Kirklees & Calderdale 6 seats
Electorate 449,211
Turnout 297,102 66.1%
Con 34.7      3 (0)
Labour 33.5 2 (-1)
LD 21.9        1 (+1)
BNP 5.1
other 4.9
A Muslim Tory councillor ran as an independent in Dewsbury to protest against the nomination of a candidate from outside the area (and White British, though that was left unsaid of course) and retained his deposit (and beat the BNP), polling 1.3 across the constituency.
Labour and LDs are both about 3500 votes off the next seat - 6-seaters seems to frequently produce these somewhat unfair distributions. As viz. for example the ones in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.

Leeds 6 seats
Electorate 400,826
Turnout 254,860 63.6%
Labour 39.4 3 (-1)
Con 27.5      2 (+1)
LD 25.1        1 (0)
BNP 4.5
other 3.5
And just for purposes of demonstation - the other way that a six-seater can be unfair in... Grin

Wakefield & Elmet 5 seats
Electorate 377,693
Turnout 239,168 63.3%
Labour 40.9 2 (-2)
Con 33.0      2 (+1)
LD 15.8        1 (0)
BNP 6.2
other 4.1
Other includes yet another deposit-retaining indy councillor, polling 1.6 across our seat.

North Yorkshire 8 seats
Electorate 606,016
Turnout 400,205 66.0%
Con 46.8      4 (-3)
LD 27.7        2 (+2)
Labour 19.0 2 (+1)
UKIP 2.7
other 3.7
Figure updated to include Thirsk & Malton. UKIP had no candidate in Richmond.

Yorkshire, summed
49 (soon to be 50) seats, electorate 3.485 mio
Turnout 63.4%
Labour 34.7 20 (-10) 18 (-12)
Con 32.1      18 (+2)  16 (0)
LD 23.3        11 (+8)  12 (+9)
BNP 4.5                        2 (+2)
UKIP 2.6                       1 (+1)
Greens 0.9
other 1.9

Hare is Labour 17, Greens 1.
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« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2010, 06:53:11 AM »

Cheshire East 5 seats
Electorate 355,609
Turnout 242,568 68.2%
Con 48.8      3 (-2)
LD 23.0        1 (+1)
Labour 22.2 1 (+1)
other 6.0
Includes a deposit-saving independent  (and former councillor, apparently) at Macclesfield. 1.1% across constituency.

Cheshire North West 6 seats
Electorate 419,573
Turnout 275,436 65.6%
Labour 41.5 3 (0)
Con 33.7      2 (-1)
LD 19.5        1 (+1)
other 5.4

Liverpool & Wirral 9 seats
Electorate 573,922
Turnout 346,114 60.3%
Labour 54.9 5 (-3)
Con 20.9      2 (+1)
LD 18.9        2 (+2)
other 5.4
The Liberal (not LD) remnant that used to be active here has dwindled to a single man. He held his deposit at West Derby, but across the constituency that's just 1.0%.

Sefton & Saint Helens 6 seats
Electorate 438,617
Turnout 268,788 61.3%
Labour 48.7 4 (-1)
LD 23.4        1 (0)
Con 21.6      1 (+1)
UKIP 4.2
other 2.2
Labour only just about strong enough to get such a favorable split (you need to poll twice as much as the second placed party).

Bolton & Wigan 6 seats
Electorate 434,112
Turnout 265,700 61.2%
Labour 46.4 3 (-3)
Con 27.3      2 (+2)
LD 15.8        1 (+1)
BNP 3.9
other 6.5
Yet another indy, at Makerfield (1.3). BNP only ran across Wigan borough and in Bolton South East.

Manchester 9 seats
Electorate 663,793
Turnout 375,819 56.6%
Labour 43.2 5 (-2)
LD 25.3        2 (+1)
Con 23.9      2 (+1)
BNP 2.2
other 5.3
BNP had just four candidates, two of which saved their deposits.

Stockport & Tameside 6 seats
Electorate 400,357
Turnout 251,567 62.8%
Labour 32.1 2 (-2)
Con 30.9      2 (+2)
LD 29.6        2 (0)
UKIP 3.8
BNP 2.5
other 1.1
Labour vote in the constituency's posher end is further depressed due to tactical voting. None of their seats is really at risk. Tories come second everywhere. BNP had just three candidates (two of which saved their deposits).

Bury, Oldham & Rochdale 6 seats
Electorate 444,967
Turnout 272,690 61.3%
Labour 38.2 3 (-2)
Con 28.3      2 (+1)
LD 23.8        1 (+1)
BNP 4.5
other 5.1
No BNP candidate for Bigoted Woman to vote for.

Mid Lancashire 9 seats
Electorate 646,262
Turnout 424,181 65.6%
Con 36.9      4 (0)
Labour 36.4 4 (0)
LD 17.9        1 (0)
UKIP 3.7
BNP 2.8
other 2.3
No BNP candidates in Rossendale & Darwen, West Lancashire, Chorley, or Ribble Valley - they would presumably have outpolled UKIP otherwise. LDs get their second seat on a straight swing of 700-odd votes from Labour.

Lancashire North 7 seats
Electorate 468,365
Turnout 289,423 61.8%
Con 41.4      3 (-2)
Labour 33.4 3 (+1)
LD 18.3        1 (+1)
other 6.9

Cumbria 6 seats
Electorate 390,346
Turnout 264,944 67.9%
Con 39.4      3 (+1)
Labour 30.8 2 (-1)
LD 24.3        1 (0)
other 5.5
Labour lose their deposit at Westmorland & Lonsdale... which contributes almost half the LD vote.

North West, summed
75 seats, electorate 5.234 mio
turnout 62.6%
Labour 39.5 35 (-12) 31 (-16)
Con 31.7      26 (+4) 24 (+2)
LD 21.6        14 (+8) 17 (+11)
UKIP 3.2                     2 (+2)
BNP 2.1                      1 (+1)
other 1.9

Hare is Labour 30, LD 16, BNP 2, Greens (0.5) 1.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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Posts: 58,206
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« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2010, 08:05:03 AM »

Cleveland 6 seats
Electorate 415,881
Turnout 249,198 59.9%
Labour 40.0 3 (-1)
Con 27.7      2 (+1)
LD 21.4        1 (0)
UKIP 4.3
BNP 4.1
other 2.4
Other includes yet another indy, in Middlesbrough (0.8%).

County Durham 7 seats
Electorate 473,327
Turnout 290,202 61.3%
Labour 45.3 4 (-3)
LD 24.1        2 (+2)
Con 21.4      1 (+1)
BNP 4.3
other 5.0
And another, in the North West seat (0.9).

Gateshead & Wearside 7 seats
Electorate 474,117
Turnout 276,290 58.3%
Labour 51.1 4 (-3)
Con 20.9      2 (+2)
LD 19.0        1 (+1)
BNP 5.4
other 3.5
And another, in Houghton (0.9). Labour not missing out on 5-1-1 by much.

Northumberland 9 seats
Electorate 591,636
Turnout 373,775 63.2%
Labour 39.2 4 (-3)
LD 28.0        3 (+2)
Con 25.0      2 (+1)
BNP 3.8
other 4.1

North East, summed
29 seats, electorate 1.954mio
Turnout 60.9%
Labour 43.6 15 (-10) 14 (-11)
Con 23.7        7 (+5)    7 (+5)
LD 23.6          7 (+5)    7 (+5)
BNP 4.4                        1 (+1)
UKIP 2.7
other 2.1

Hare is Labour 13, UKIP 1.
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