2010 results by 5-9 member D'Hondt constituencies

[minionofmidas]

Monmouthshire & Brecon 6 seats
Electorate 345,464
Turnout 229,537 66.4%
Labour 34.5 2 (-2)
Con 29.3      2 (+1)
LD 23.6        2 (+1)
PC 3.2
PV 2.8
other 6.6
People's Voice only contested Blaenau Gwent, and probably cost Labour a seat here. Plaid Cymru saved one deposit - in Torfaen - and polled behind the BNP in Newport and Monmouth.

South Glamorgan 5 seats
Electorate 323,432
Turnout 217,774 67.3%
Labour 35.9 2 (0)
Con 32.5      2 (0)
LD 22.1        1 (0)
PC 4.7
other 4.8

Mid Glamorgan 8 seats
Electorate 446,273
Turnout 276,074 61.9%
Labour 46.4 4 (-4)
LD 18.8        2 (+2)
Con 15.2      1 (+1)
PC 11.8        1 (+1)
other 7.8
indies saved their deposit at Merthyr and in the Rhondda. Last seat very close between Labour and LD.

West Glamorgan 5 seats
Electorate 296,871
Turnout 178,111 60.0%
Labour 44.0 3 (-2)
LD 20.4        1 (+1)
Con 19.6      1 (+1)
PC 9.0
BNP 3.5
other 3.6
Yeah, the BNP saved one deposit in Wales - in Swansea East.

Clwyd & Montgomery 8 (or 7) seats
Electorate 426,070 (or 381,478)
Turnout 281,988 (or 252,022) 66.2% (or 66.1%)
Con 34.6      3 (0)   or 34.5 3 (+1)
Labour 32.1 3 (-2)  or 33.0 3 (-2)
LD 20.0        2 (+2) or 20.1 1 (+1)
PC 8.7                     or 7.6
other 4.6                 or 4.8
Clwyd-sans-Aberconwy seat distribution is obviously ugly to the LDs. Real life fptp distribution very favorable to Labour o/c - held the majority of seats, none of them really wholly safely, and are a non-presence in Montgomeryshire.

West Wales 8 (or 9) seats
Electorate 418,632 (or 463,224)
Turnout 283,267 (or 313,233) 67.7% (or 67.6%)
Labour 27.3 3 (+1) or 27.0 3 (+1)
PC 26.4        2 (-1) or 25.5  2 (-1)
Con 24.9      2 (0)  or 25.9  3 (0)
LD 17.0        1 (0)  or 17.2  1 (0)
other 4.5               or 4.3
Yeah, I recalculated this one. Mostly because I was copying all the seat totals down for a separate purpose anyways. And because Harry used the wrong seat total (I took up his suggestion on the name). Note that in the alternative constituency design, Tories are ahead of Plaid - and LDs are closer than Plaid to the 9th seat (very close - a swing of 169 voters from the Tories does the trick). An independent retained his deposit on the island, of course (0.8 or 0.7 across the constituency).
Oh, and overall the design with Aberconwy here gives the Tories an extra seat at the LDs expense, which taking a look at the sum across both seats is much the less proportional result.

Wales, summed
40 seats, electorate 2.26mio.
Turnout 64.9%
Labour 36.2 17 (-9)  16 (-10)
Con 26.1      11 (+3) 11 (+3)
LD 20.1          9 (+6)   8 (+5)
PC 11.3          3 (0)     4 (+1)
UKIP 2.4                     1 (+1)
BNP 1.6
other 2.3

Or Con 12 (+4), LD 8 (+5). Hare is Labour 15, Con 10, PC 5, BNP 1.

[minionofmidas]

Ayrshire & Renfrewshire 8 seats
Electorate 541,079
Turnout 354,875 65.6%
Labour 51.7 5 (-3)
SNP 19.0      1 (+1)
Con 18.3      1 (+1)
LD 10.1         1 (+1)
other 3.0
Con candidate in Ayrshire North & Arran's party membership "suspended" after the filing deadline, basically for belonging in the BNP rather than David Cameron's Conservative Party. Still appeared on the ballot as "Conservative". When treated as an Independent (and the BBC calls him "independent" but gives him the Tory colour) the Con percentage drops to 16.3, which obviously doesn't affect the seat tally.

Glasgow 7 seats
Electorate 416,986
Turnout 229,215 55.0%
Labour 56.2 5 (-2)
SNP 17.3      1 (+1)
LD 13.5         1 (+1)
Con 7.6
other 5.3
Tories' lose their deposit in Glasgow East.

North Lanarkshire & Dunbartonshire 6 seats
Electorate 393,115
Turnout 247,971 63.5%
Labour 55.6 4 (-1)
SNP 18.5      1 (+1)
LD 14.5         1 (0)
Con 9.9
other 1.5

South Lanarkshire & Borders 6 seats
Electorate 442,099
Turnout 291,560 57.0%
Labour 41.3 3 (-1)
Con 23.5      1 (0)
LD 17.8        1 (0)
SNP 15.4      1 (+1)
other 2.0

Edinburgh & East Lothian 7 seats
Electorate 455,948
Turnout 311,334 68.3%
Labour 39.5 3 (-3)
LD 25.2        2 (+1)
Con 18.3      1 (+1)
SNP 14.0      1 (+1)
SGP 2.0
other 0.9
No Green candidate in Edinburgh West.

Fife & Central Scotland 8 seats
Electorate 582,992
Turnout 372,239 63.8%
Labour 47.3 4 (-3)
SNP 20.2      2 (+2)
LD 17.8        1 (0)
Con 12.7      1 (+1)
other 2.0

Tayside 5 seats
Electorate 338,564
Turnout 214,391 63.3%
SNP 34.6      2 (-1)
Labour 30.4 2 (0)
Con 21.7      1 (+1)
LD 11.3
other 2.0

Aberdeenshire 5 seats
Electorate 332,672
Turnout 213,171 64.1%
LD 27.5        2 (0)
Labour 25.2 1 (-1)
Con 22.6      1 (+1)
SNP 22.2      1 (0)
other 2.5
Now that is one fucked up result. Of course SNP-LD tactical voting is in full evidence, and I'd guesstimate to see the two parties shares reversed in an actual PR election.

Highlands 7 seats
Electorate 360,062
Turnout 230,966 64.1%
LD 35.8         3 (-2)
SNP 23.0       2 (0)
Labour 20.3  1 (+1)
Con 16.7       1 (+1)
UKIP 1.5
other 2.6
You may have guessed already why I included Moray in this constituency rather than with Aberdeen - to somewhat reduce Highland overrepresentation by including a third normal-sized constituency. UKIP had only four candidates, but saved their only Scottish deposit in Orkney & Shetland. Tories lost their deposit in the Western Isles, but a Christian Fundy independent saved his (Murdo Murray. Check out his website.)

Scotland, summed
59 seats, electorate 3.865 mio.
Turnout 63.8%
Labour 42.0 28 (-13) 26 (-15)
SNP 19.9      12 (+6)  12 (+6)
LD 18.9        12 (+1)  11 (0)
Con 16.7        7 (+6)  10 (+9)
other 2.5
Hare gives the same result; the other parties are just too weak. Treating that Ayrshire N ass as an independent doesn't have an effect either.

[minionofmidas]

Belfast & Antrim 7 seats
Electorate 440,401
Turnout 244,708 55.6%
DUP 33.5      3 (-1)
SF 19.7         1 (0)
UCUNF 16.0  1 (+1)
SDLP 13.4     1 (0)
Alliance 11.3 1 (0)
TUV 5.2
other 0.8
No TUV candidate in most Belfast seats. No SF candidate in Belfast South.

Down & Armagh 6 seats
Electorate 406,228
Turnout 231,404 57.0%
DUP 24.4     2 (-1)
UCUNF 19.8 2 (+2)
SF 19.1        1 (0)
SDLP 17.9    1 (0)
Hermon 9.2  0 (-1)
Alliance 4.8
TUV 3.5
other 1.3
Hermon not missing out by much (though SF is ahead of her in the cue.) Still, she'd likely have run on the DUP slate under such a system, which incidentally gives 33.6% and 3 seats with UCUNF on one.
No DUP candidate in North Down of course, and no TUV candidates in either Upper Bann or Newry & Armagh.

West Northern Ireland 5 seats
Electorate 322,754
Turnout 197,759 61.3%
SF 40.2          3 (0)
SDLP 18.7      1 (0)
DUP 15.1        1 (0)
Connor 10.8
UCUNF 8.7
TUV 2.8
Alliance 1.9
other 1.8
1.5 out of that 1.8 is Eamon McCann in Derry. TUV had only two candidates (Coleraine and Mid Ulster). DUP and UCUNF didn't stand against Connor in Fermanagh o/c, and his vote would likely split between the two parties someway. Adding him to the DUP pile doesn't actually change anything (though it's a close shave for the third Shinner seat), but adding him, or anything upward of 44% of his tally, to the UCUNF pile does. Now, in 2005 UCUNF polled 39% of the combined Unionist vote in the constituency, so...

Northern Ireland, summed
18 seats, electorate 1.17mio
Turnout 57.6%
SF 25.5        5 (0)   6 (+1)
DUP 25.0     6 (-2)  5 (-3) 
SDLP 16.5    3 (0)   3 (0)
UCUNF 15.2 3 (+3) 3 (+3)
Alliance 6.3  1 (0)   1 (0)
TUV 3.9
Connor 3.2
Hermon 3.1  0 (-1)  0 (-1)
other 1.3
..but see notes above on Connor and Hermon (also, irrespective of anything else TUV would take the 18th seat off SF in the provincewide D'Hondt count if they'd had more candidates).
Hare is SF 5, DUP 4, TUV 1, Connor 1. (They're all very close, but the order for the last two seats is 1.SF 5th, 2. Connor, 3. Hermon, 4. DUP 5th.)

[minionofmidas]

National Totals (649 seats)

5-9 member constituencies
Con 255, Labour 212, LD 149, SNP 12, PC 3, Northern Irish parties 18

Regional constituencies
Con 237, Labour 202, LD 151, UKIP 15, SNP 12, BNP 8, PC 4, Greens 2, Northern Irish parties 18

or with Hare-Niemeyer rather than D'Hondt (absolutely not happening. This is England.)
Con 230, Labour 196, LD 147, UKIP 21, BNP 13, SNP 12, Greens 6, PC 5, ICHC 1, Northern Irish parties 18

[minionofmidas]

Dated up.

[doktorb]

Good to rediscover this thread again. Very interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is awesome. How comes I missed it the first time ?