2018 House Predictions

[Pericles]

I don't know which seats exactly will flip but I think Democrats will win the popular vote by around 10%, could be slightly more (they're currently up 7% in the generic ballot) and get at least 220 seats.

[Pericles]

I think it is possible that, based in part on the special election results, many seats with lots of WWC voters will flip to the Democrats with big swings while they may get smaller swings in GOP-held seats with many college-educated white voters who could still support the GOP despite their disapproval of Trump so some California seats for instance could remain in GOP hands.

[Pericles]

Democratic gains
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
IL-14
KS-03
KY-06
ME-02
MN-02
MN-03
MT-AL
NE-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-24
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-16
SC-05
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08

Republican gains
MN-01

Dems gain 35 seats, Republicans gain 1 seat, net Democratic gain of 34 seats leading to a 47-seat Republican majority in the House becoming a 21-seat Democratic majority.

2018 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 228+34 53.3%
Paul Ryan-Republican: 207-34 42.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

[Pericles]

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.

How does my prediction look?

[Pericles]

I think 25 is being used because the GOP will probably gain MN-01.

[Pericles]

I think Senate is anywhere between 51 Republicans and 48 Republicans. The House flips, Democrats get at least 230 seats(but this requires a double-digit popular vote win, and going beyond 250 is a stretch). In governorships Democrats probably gain parity or an outright majority(at least 25).

[Pericles]