Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon? (user search)
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  Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Pick three
#1
Kansas
 
#2
Mississippi
 
#3
Alaska
 
#4
South Carolina
 
#5
Louisiana
 
#6
Utah
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 74

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Author Topic: Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon?  (Read 1748 times)
Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,234
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.00, S: 6.00

« on: November 27, 2017, 12:13:29 AM »

I agree, there is an obsession with MS turning blue, but there is not evidence for that.  In 2016, it got more Republican and blacks are not increasing their share of the population like Hispanics are in other parts of the country.  It seems like most people online love to pay attention to solidly red states going blue (even when their predictions are wrong) but ignore the fact that Montana and the entire Midwest are trending R.  If TX, AZ and GA go blue, it will hurt Republicans in the House and electoral college, but not in the Senate because republicans will solidify the Midwest and upper mountain west which have lower population but same senate seats. 
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Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,234
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.00, S: 6.00

« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2017, 09:24:55 PM »

This is basically a list of the most conservative states.  It is like saying which blue state is most likely to turn red: California, Hawaii, Washington, Massachusetts, or New York? (upstate NY is trending r but would never turn the whole state r unless NYC is nuked or something)  As for MS, the black population is stagnant, not growing and while young people by and large more liberal, folks get more conservative as they get older and it is predicted those in gen z (1996+) are more conservative than millennials.  I really doubt that the voting of young people will make staets more liberal in the long run but growing minority population certainly could in some states , but not MS, LA, or SC.
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