I am going to be contrarian and go with Georgia. The shift in Atlanta will be too much to overcome by the middle of the next decade, and a shift to CVAP-based maps (if SCOTUS allows it) would do much less to help Republicans there than in Texas or Florida.
NC has the no-veto rule and the rural areas haven't completely realigned yet. The state supreme court is now 6D/1R, so they could get PA-style intervention from it, but Republicans will do everything they can to mess with the court so I am not sure if anything would stick.
The problem with Texas is that even if Dems flipped both chambers of the legislature next year, in the event of a deadlock between the state legislature and the governor, the Texas state constitution turns legislative redistricting over to a commission of 4 statewide row offices and the Speaker of the House, with a majority vote sufficient to approve new maps for the decade. Since Republicans won all 4 of those offices and Governor Abbott was reelected, they are already assured of controlling state legislature redistricting.
However, with control of at least one house of the state legislature in 2021 Dems would still be able to block congressional redistricting and send it to court, and they would also be able to prevent CVAP/eligible voters redistricting as that would require passing a bill to change state law. Of course, Republicans would be favored to flip the legislature in 2022 on the new maps they drew, so TX-GOV would be a must-win for Democrats to make the court-drawn congressional map stick for more than just the 2022 election. The soonest I could see a Dem trifecta in Texas would be a Dem midterm wave in 2030 (2026 is very likely to have a Dem president).
I don't see the Texas state house being anywhere near as effectively gerrymandered as either chamber in Georgia due to the constitutional requirement that county lines be maintained as much as possible.
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