Best Time to Release Romney's Tax Returns

[Politico]

Let's assume that the Romney campaign has the dossier of tax returns that were provided to the McCain vetting team in 2008 (i.e., the returns from the early '80s up through 2008). Let's assume they want to release the returns simply to get the issue out of the way (and assume that the lowest rate Romney has ever paid in a given year was 13%). In your opinion, when would be the best time to release the returns between now and the election?

My take: The afternoon of Thursday, September 6, 2012. Obama is giving his acceptance speech later in the night, so the returns will not be the only news of the evening. The following morning sees the jobs report come out, which should cause the returns to not be the most-talked about issue of the weekend considering the convention just ended too. Finally, the next time somebody asks Romney about the tax returns he can fall back on "obviously I've paid all of my taxes and not a penny more. People want to hear about our plans for the economy. The jobs report was dismal/not good enough," and so forth. The risk may be that Obama will get a bounce. That may happen regardless, of course. If it does happen under this scenario, there will always be questions as to whether the tax returns or the convention gave Obama a bounce. The upside is that no bounce for Obama would be a double-whammy: The tax returns did not help him nor did the convention, meaning that he's in BIG trouble and all of the pressure is now on him to shine in the debates. Consequently, expectations in the debates are high for Obama and low for Romney.

Let's hear your take, folks...

[Politico]

This past February.

Do you have Doc Brown's number by chance?

Mind you, I do agree that these should have been released months ago. But humor me. What date would you pick and why?

[Politico]

How about not releasing them, period?

Another option, and it may be precisely what happens (although why give Obama ammo for the debates? We need this to become a referendum on the Obama Economy with no distractions throughout October). But let's pretend, for whatever reason(s), they absolutely must be released between now and November. What date would you pick and why?

[Politico]

Romney should wait until Obama overplays his hand on this issue. Sometime before November 6th, this issue will once again come to the forefront of the news cycle, and it will probably happen after an abysmal jobs report. It'll be your typical Obama distraction. I have a feeling, though, that as we get closer to Election Day, more pressure will be on Obama to divert attention away from his record. He will come off as "too aggressive" about the tax returns. When that happens, Romney should release the returns immediately and give a "shame on you" type of speech.

Very good. Do you agree that releasing them the day before the August jobs report would be a type of preemptive strike since we know there is a strong probability of Obama falling back on attacking Romney's decision not to release the returns to distract from the August jobs report? Heck, that may even be a key piece of Obama's acceptance speech for all we know. Release the returns the afternoon of his speech, and perhaps they'll have to change that part of the speech, losing some of its oomph in the process. Even if releasing the returns caused a bounce for Obama, which the convention may do by itself regardless of what the campaign does, Romney still has a huge opportunity to comeback with the debates right around the corner and the returns behind him.

[Politico]

Sept. 4 or 5. 6th would be too late because then that crowds out the jobs report.

We've still got the jobs reports on Friday, October 5 and Friday, November 2 to make up for it, not to mention the debates. Let's face it: The lies about Romney's tax returns, which you and I know are completely bogus, are all that Obama and Co. have left. What are they going to talk about for two months if it's released on September 6? And at least releasing them around the time of the August jobs report allows Romney to switch the topic onto the report, not to mention Obama's rhetoric the night before, when people ask him about his 13% tax rate in a particular year. It steals Obama's thunder and puts some focus on the jobs report, not just the tax returns.

[Politico]

Many Americans who are worth a fraction of a fraction of Romney's wealth pay a higher percentage than him in taxes. Even if he releases them, it could seriously blow right back up in his face.  I know the blue collar members of my family aren't exactly comforted that Mitt paid at least 13%.

Over a quarter century, I'm sure Romney has paid literally millions and millions of dollars in both taxes and charitable contributions. Stressing aggregate taxes/charitable contributions would be effective if they release the dossier at once. Furthermore, it would be unprecedented to release so many tax returns, more than doubling the number of years his father provided and putting to rest the doubts about transparency. Plus, it would be scandalous for Harry Reid. Nobody running for Senate will want to be associated with him for the rest of the fall.

[Politico]

Romney should wait until Obama overplays his hand on this issue. Sometime before November 6th, this issue will once again come to the forefront of the news cycle, and it will probably happen after an abysmal jobs report. It'll be your typical Obama distraction. I have a feeling, though, that as we get closer to Election Day, more pressure will be on Obama to divert attention away from his record. He will come off as "too aggressive" about the tax returns. When that happens, Romney should release the returns immediately and give a "shame on you" type of speech.

Very good. Do you agree that releasing them the day before the August jobs report would be a type of preemptive strike since we know there is a strong probability of Obama falling back on the returns to distract from the August jobs report? Even if the returns caused a bounce for Obama, which the convention may do by itself regardless of what the campaign does, Romney still has a huge opportunity to comeback with the debates right around the corner.

I'm not convinced. History's shown that Obama would still find something to harp on. Whereas if Romney waits for Obama to call him out on it, it's a lot easier for Romney to make the president look foolish and desperate.

Also, releasing them before the jobs report would make it look like Romney was trying to fly under-the-radar. Since they'll get loads of attention anyway, he might as well be up-front and turn it into an atack on the president.

Release them with a press conference where Romney says something like, "I've been waiting a long time to release these returns, to show I am open and honest with the public. I hope tonight the president will be open and honest about the state of the economy, rather than engaging in attacks. People want to hear about the issues, not tax returns. I look forward to the president's acceptance speech, and talking about the issues we face moving forward."

I feel like releasing the returns during an "empty" week for the media will just lead to the returns dominating the cycle for an entire week. Release it before the president's acceptance speech, and you've got the speech and the jobs report the next day to muddy the waters, so to speak. The media's talking heads are going to have an Obama-gasm about the speech regardless. The following day they will be forced to focus on the jobs report or else risk their integrity being called into question by a frustrated public ("liberal bias" attacks and so forth), with depressed ratings for them as frustrated people turn off the news in favor of something else.

[Politico]

People who are struggling to pay their rent, mortgages or fill up the gas tank are wondering why Mitt gets to keep more of his money than them.

Maybe they should be wondering why they want four more years of the Obama Economy? They want four more years of the past four years? Really?

[Politico]

He won't release them because there's campaign-ending sh*t there.

See, Romney supporters? This is the sh*t we need to kill by releasing these motherf'ing returns, and sooner rather than later.

Romney would not have released the dossier to McCain's camp if the above claim were true. We all know that. It is, one, just common sense (If Romney had anything in his background that was "campaign-ending," he never would have ran for president to begin with). The McCain camp did not ask for 20-something years of returns. Two, if the returns had "campaign-ending sh*t" we know somebody in the McCain camp would have leaked the dossier last year to kill Romney's chances in 2012, and pave the way for somebody else they work for.

Us politicos understand what I am saying, but the public at large is duped by Reid, et al.'s nonsense. All the Democrats have in 2012 is "attack and blame." So much for "hope and change."

[Politico]

People who are struggling to pay their rent, mortgages or fill up the gas tank are wondering why Mitt gets to keep more of his money than them.

Maybe they should be wondering why they want four more years of the Obama Economy? They want four more years of the past four years? Really?

The change theme will only take hold if people think the alternative will do a better job. (see 2004).

That will be the function of the debates, as was the case with Reagan in 1980.

People just need to know Romney is a safe alternative. Once that happens, and I think it will happen during the debates, it's lights out for Obama. There is no other result. Not with this economy. Not after these past four years. You said it yourself: Too many people are struggling. A recession is when your neighbor is out of work; a depression is when you are out of work. A heck of a lot of people, across every state, are in a recession or a depression.

[Politico]

There is one serious flaw with your proposed strategy, Politico.  It assumes the August jobs report will be bad for Obama.

500,000 jobs are not going to appear out of the blue. It's going to be dismal or really dismal. Even if it is a slight improvement over last month, it is still not enough to keep pace with population growth.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe.

[Politico]

People who are struggling to pay their rent, mortgages or fill up the gas tank are wondering why Mitt gets to keep more of his money than them.

Maybe they should be wondering why they want four more years of the Obama Economy? They want four more years of the past four years? Really?

The change theme will only take hold if people think the alternative will do a better job. (see 2004).

That will be the function of the debates, as was the case with Reagan in 1980.

People just need to know Romney is a safe alternative. Once that happens, and I think it will happen during the debates, it's lights out for Obama. There is no other result. Not with this economy. Not after these past four years. You said it yourself: Too many people are struggling. A recession is when your neighbor is out of work; a depression is when you are out of work. A heck of a lot of people, across every state, are in a recession or a depression.

There's two problems with that belief; Obama's not Carter and Romney's not Reagan. Reagan stood for something, he didn't run on platitudes. He had substance and people liked him. Carter wasn't well liked by people, he wasn't charismatic and was pretty bad at speeches and debating. That's the complete opposite for Obama. Style wise, Obama is more like Reagan and Romney, Carter.
And don't expect Romney to just be able to knock Obama out with the "Are You Better Off Now Than You Were 4 Years Ago?" question. Chicago already has an answer to that and will turn it back around on The  Rominee with something like "Under Who Will You And Your Family Be Better Of 4 Years From Now?"

Actually, I quite prefer Romney going with the "a recession is when your neighbor is...a depression is when you..." line from the Reagan archive. There is not much Obama can say other than, "at least Washington, DC has been stimulated by my stimulus, and I just need one more chance to set it right!"

[Politico]

He won't release them because there's campaign-ending sh*t there.

See, Romney supporters? This is the sh*t we need to kill by releasing these motherf'ing returns, and sooner rather than later.

Romney would not have released the dossier to McCain's camp if the above claim were true. We all know that. It is, one, just common sense (If Romney had anything in his background that was "campaign-ending," he never would have ran for president to begin with). The McCain camp did not ask for 20-something years of returns. Two, if the returns had "campaign-ending sh*t" we know somebody in the McCain camp would have leaked the dossier last year to kill Romney's chances in 2012, and pave the way for somebody else they work for.

Us politicos understand what I am saying, but the public at large is duped by Reid, et al.'s nonsense. All the Democrats have in 2012 is "attack and blame." So much for "hope and change."

Edwards...

It didn't kill Clinton's chances, so he thought it wouldn't kill his chances either.