America: 2000-2016

[Yates]

A Cold Resurgence



In the aftermath of the March 2009 Moscow terrorist attack, the world bears witness to what had so long been speculated: despite Vladimir Putin ostensibly stepping down to the number two position in Russia, he remains the nation’s undisputed leader.  He lingers behind Medvedev whenever the latter is in public and begins to more openly assume his former role.  Putin orders to Russian military to assume total control of Chechnya and begins to enact policies which raise the eyebrows of many foreigners, including Secretary of State Bill Richardson.

In an interview in late April, Secretary Richardson states, “The interment of innocent Chechnyans and the tactics used by the Russian military and police forces reminds us of the days in which pogroms took place and whole towns would be exterminated.  It is a road we have seen Russia hint at going down, but never has it been so evident.”  When asked whether he has advised President Kyl to pressure Russia to maintain human rights standards, Richardson confirmed he had.  Privately, President Kyl had spoken with both Putin and Medvedev; the former was particularly offended by the call, asking the American President, “What would you do if dogs like these attacked a subway in New York?”  Kyl is determined to avoid a standoff which would significantly deteriorate US-Russo relations and plunge the world back into a chaotic state. 

Secretary Richardson increasingly finds his advice ignored by President Kyl and outright opposed by other administration officials, such as Homeland Security Secretary Peter King, who proposes a similar mentality when dealing with anti-American terrorists at home and abroad.  In June of 2009, Bill Richardson resigns as Secretary of State, publicly citing irreconcilable differences between himself and the President.  In a subsequent interview, Richardson states, “How can President Kyl seek to place America as the leader of the free world when he allows other nations to brutalize their own populations?  Our commitment to liberty, peace, and democracy means nothing if we don’t act upon it.”  Richardson plans to write a book outlining his views on foreign policy and plans a speaking tour across the country, as well as a global tour meeting with foreign leaders.  Some see these moves as Richardson establishing himself as a Presidential candidate for 2012.

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Senate Majority Leader Barbara Boxer

On the domestic front, the Republican House leaders put forward their second major proposal: a federal school vouchers program.  While the bill easily passes the House due to the Republican majority, it encounters difficulties in the Senate.  Unlike Chuck Schumer, Barbara Boxer proves to be a cutthroat party leader.  The Democratic Caucus is united and prevents the passage of the bill.  Boxer’s abrasive tactics and bombastic speaking title garner her significant notoriety, but Stephen Colbert proves that not all publicity is good publicity when he dubs her, “The Biggest Bitch in America.”  However crude, most Americans seem to agree, as Boxer has a 79% disapproval rating.  The fact remains she is an extremely effective party leader for Senate Democrats. 

In the summer of 2009, the 2010 midterm campaign season begins softly.  Senator Harold Ford, along with Democratic campaign committee chairmen Mark Pryor and Chris Van Hollen, aim to recruit a wide range of candidates to challenge even entrenched Republican incumbents.  Meanwhile, Republican campaign committee chairmen John Thune and Paul Ryan intend to do the same.  Both travel extensively nation-wide while performing the duties of their role, prompting speculation that the two may be laying the groundwork for Presidential bids.

Stay tuned for Part II of this update.

[Yates]

2009: The World in Decline

Throughout the year, a worldwide recession had worsened into a near-depression.  In the United States particularly, unemployment rises to a staggering 15% in August 2009.  Though Treasury Secretary Christopher Cox becomes a public scapegoat, the American people had been plagued by their excessive spending habits over the prior decade.  Prominent Democrats such as Senators Boxer and Ford criticize the Republican Party for pushing flat tax through Congress at a time when the lower and middle classes cannot afford to take on a larger portion of funding the government.  To these objections, Vice President Pawlenty states, “If they’re worried lower taxes will not be able to pay the bills for the federal government, they need to ask themselves why they’ve committed to funding so many programs.  You can’t blame Americans for excessive spending when the Democratic Party has bankrupted our nation.”

The situation is made worse by the plethora of able laborers – World War III veterans who have returned home.  The number of homeless veterans skyrockets as there are no jobs in the market.  Veterans Affairs Secretary Richard Myers urges President Kyl to consider several New Deal-style projects to increase labor opportunities for veterans, but Kyl refuses, not wanting to increase government spending.  Former Secretary of State Bill Richardson criticizes Kyl in a guest lecture at Brown University, saying, “The President has not only ignored the values for which our troops fight, but has ignored them after they have risked it all for our nation.”  With the midterm elections of 2010 approaching rapidly, many begin to speculate about possible 2012 Presidential candidates. 

President Kyl’s controversial performance has led to talk of a potential primary challenger, with some pointing to Congressman Dave Reichert a possibility due to his opposition to flat tax.  His sinking approval ratings (a mediocre 43% as of January 2010) have led to countless Democrats gearing up to run.  The list includes former Secretary Richardson, Senate Majority Leader Barbara Boxer, Senate Majority Whip Harold Ford, Senator Barack Obama, House Minority Leader Ed Markey, former Senator and 2008 nominee Dick Durbin, and others.  With the fragile state of the nation and the globe, the 2012 Presidential election will have a great impact and thus looks to be hotly contested.  Start your engines.

NEXT: How will the midterm elections play out?  As the dust settles, the 2012 campaign begins.  Also – tensions rise due to a security scare in the homeland.

[Yates]

Secretary Cox claimed that he had a terminal illness and milked the sympathy for all it was worth. It then emerged that, actually, he didn't. He lied. In fact his entire personality was a lie. There was no Secretary Cox and there never had been. No terminal illness either. People who were close to Cox - or had thought they were - felt used and the rest of the nation felt just a little bit angry.

What comes after that, though?

Thank you, Al.  Perhaps you could use the thread to comment on my timeline, which I have returned to complete, rather than rehash old news which has been discussed greatly elsewhere.

[Yates]

If you enjoyed the update, please let me know!  I see the "views" go up by hundreds per day, but if I know you all are enjoying it, it is all the more motivation to continue. 

[Yates]

The next update will be tonight.

[Yates]

Vosem, I appreciate the thought you put into the post.  I can confirm only a few of the below, but your theories could be assumed to be accurate.  Max Cleland remains a Senator as of now (2009 in the timeline), so therefore was re-elected in 2002 and 2008.  Wellstone, as you point out, was re-eleted.  I can confirm Kean in New Jersey as a successor to Franks, Gorton defeating Cantwell, Shaheen defeating Sununu, and Carnahan defeating Talent.  I will consider the rest of your projections to see if we can make them "canon."  Thank you again! 

[Yates]

2010 Midterms: A Battle of Personalities

Nearly all political analysts agree that President Kyl’s first year in office has been underwhelming.  Despite the monumental achievement for conservatives of passing the flat tax proposal, it has gone over poorly with the American public.  An attempt at reducing longstanding nuclear tensions with Russia stalled as the Russian government was radicalized after the Moscow attack.  Finally, the school vouchers proposal was defeated by the Democratic Senate majority.  Though Kyl’s first State of the Union retains the optimistic tone of his inaugural address, it does not resonate with an increasingly cynical American public.  

If the lukewarm attitude towards the President was not enough, Republican Senate leadership transitioned due to a sex scandal which forced Senate Minority Leader John Ensign, Kyl’s political protégé, to resign as leader.  Kay Bailey Hutchison reluctantly assumes leadership of the Republican Caucus, with John Thune assuming the role of Minority Whip in addition to his leadership of the nationwide Republican Senatorial campaigns.  Hutchison’s charm, wit and style serve as a counterpart to the brash Barbara Boxer in the eyes of the American public.  Her popularity increases every second she appears on television and her name quickly becomes synonymous with the Republican Party just as Boxer has become identified with the Democrats.  A battle of personalities is exactly what the Republicans are looking for: Barbara Boxer serves as a lightning rod for every Republican running for Congress to attack.

One notable Republican Congressman not running for re-election is Dave Reichert.  The Washington moderate is seen by many to be laying the groundwork for a primary challenge to President Kyl in 2012.  His newly formed political action committee is called Americans for Accountability and he travels the nation connecting with disillusioned moderate Republicans on every issue from flat tax to foreign policy.  Some focus is taken off Reichert in early 2010 when rumors circulate around the Beltway that President Kyl, 67 and not particularly healthy, is considering not running for a second term.  Privately, Kyl does not trust Vice President Pawlenty, who fell below expectations in the 2008 campaign, to be able to win a national election or be an effective President.  In June 2010, Kyl confirms that he will be running for a second term but noticeably evades the issue of whether Pawlenty will be on the ticket.

Vice President Pawlenty has been touring the nation campaigning for Republican candidates to establish himself as Kyl’s natural successor in the event he did not run.  Now that Kyl is confirmed to run in 2012, Pawlenty seems desperate to remain on the ticket and aims to prove his effectiveness as a campaigner.  Other Republicans who serve as national surrogates include Speaker Pence, Leader Hutchison, Senator Thune and Congressman Hensarling.  Capitol Hill is noticeably empty as its usual occupants are dispersed across the fifty states aiming to have an influence in who fills the chambers next year.  As respected columnist William Safire writes, “Our elected representatives spend more time campaigning than legislating.”  

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The American peoples’ focus on the campaign is broken when it is revealed in late July that the National Security Agency had discovered and prevented a massive terrorist attack from taking place during Independence Day celebrations in Boston.  Four Muslim American youths were arrested in a Fort Lee, New Jersey diner as they were ostensibly on their way north from their Georgia university to commit the heinous act.  Homeland Security Secretary Peter King drafts a memorandum for President Kyl in which he urges him to issue an executive order allowing “preventative internment facilities” to be constructed across the nation.  These facilities would serve as holding stations for suspected terrorists while they awaited investigations by federal intelligence agencies.  

President Kyl issues such an executive order, drawing severe criticism from some, including Senator Paul Wellstone, who states that similar facilities were the first step towards concentration camps in Nazi Germany.  Objections go largely ignored, however, as the nation is on alert knowing that terrorist cells are actively seeking to harm American civilians.  Democratic leaders are hesitant to attempt an override of the executive order, fearing doing so would make them look weak on security months before a crucial election.  The order goes unchallenged and the first facility is constructed near Fort Benning, Georgia, with others soon following in rural areas across the country.

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Senate Minority Leader Kay Bailey Hutchison

As the election approaches, the campaign becomes Boxer versus Hutchison, and Republicans are thanking their lucky stars.  Boxer holds an approval rating of 19% of the American public, while Hutchison’s is a solid 74%.  In the generic Congressional ballot, Republicans lead nationwide with 57% compared to the Democrat’s 41%.  The undecided number is noticeably lower than in most election years.  Republicans need only three seats to obtain a majority in the Senate and appear to be at no risk of maintaining their House majority.  In gubernatorial races, especially critical due to upcoming redistricting, Republicans have advantages nationwide.  Democratic strategist James Carville comments in October, “You’ve got a President who isn’t loved, an economy in shambles, a world going down the toilet, security threats at home, and Barbara Boxer is outweighing all of it.”  Carville perhaps has summed up what most Democrats are thinking.

On Election Day, the Republicans overcome the historical factors against them and increase their majority in the House and in gubernatorial seats, but most importantly win enough seats to obtain a Senate majority.  The critical seats which made the difference were Colorado, in which attorney Ken Buck defeated Ken Salazar; Nevada, where Congressman Jon Porter defeated Harry Reid; and most notably California, where Barbara Boxer was defeated by businesswoman Carly Fiorina.  In her Election Night victory speech, incoming Senate Majority Leader Kay Bailey Hutchison proclaims, “The era of American greatness is only beginning.  Together, with the confidence of the American people, we move forward towards our nation’s destiny.”

NEXT: The Democratic defeat yields division among the ranks.  Who will rise to challenge the now-dominant Republican Party?

[Yates]

December 3, 2010

Today is the groundbreaking ceremony for the Wesley K. Clark Library and Presidential Complex.  When determining a location for the complex, Clark considered Arkansas, but was deterred by the presence of the Clinton Library.  Instead, he chose West Point, New York, within a mile of the Military Academy which formed his life.  The planned $50 million complex will likely be completed by 2012.


Former President Roy Barnes

At the ceremony, President Kyl commends his predecessor’s service to his nation not only as President.  “President Clark showed me not only how to be America’s leader, but how to be a good American,” says Kyl.  Perhaps the most surprising speaker is former President Roy Barnes, who had largely remained outside the public eye since he resigned from office in 2006.  Barnes appears far healthier and more jubilant than he has been since the 2004 Presidential campaign and is, for the first time, considered funny.  “When I think of Wes Clark,” begins Barnes, “I think, ‘How did I let this son of a gun show me up?’”  He goes on to heavily praise Clark, even saying that selecting him as his running mate was the greatest choice of his political career.

His comments are echoed by Clark’s second-in-command, former Vice President Richard Holbrooke.  Holbrooke enjoys extensive popularity due to his role in negotiating the end of World War III and the Second Korean War, both with favorable results for the United States.  Many Democrats are urging Holbrooke to run for President in 2012, but the statesman will not budge.  His well-received speech reminds those watching why he has been an effective American diplomat for decades and why the greatest leaders are usually those who never seek the Presidency.  President Clark begins his remarks by commending Holbrooke on his lifetime of service.  “I learned in my three years as President that the reason some of my predecessors are considered great is because they had great men advising them.  If history judges my Presidency to be a success, there needs to be a note indicating that it was due to Richard Holbrooke.”

Unfortunately, former Vice President Holbrooke dies ten days later of a heart attack at the age of 69.  His body lies in state at the Capitol Rotunda and his funeral is broadcast on national television.  Dignitaries from across the world attend to pay their respects to the man who ended two of the greatest conflicts in the history of mankind.


Richard Holbrooke (1941 – 2010)
This update is dedicated to his memory.

[Yates]

250+ views since yesterday.  You all are reading, but are you enjoying?

[Yates]

The next few updates will focus on the Presidential campaign announcements for certain candidates.

[Yates]

“A Worthy Cause”



In a move anticipated by all and feared by many, Congressman Dave Reichert announces his Presidential bid on December 27, 2010.  His primary challenge to an incumbent President is historically rare, but was last seen in 2004 when General Wesley Clark challenged President George W. Bush.  Clark received roughly a third of the vote in the states he contested before dropping out and later becoming Roy Barnes’ running mate.  Reichert, who has less national experience and name recognition than Clark did, is thought to have virtually no chance of obtaining the nomination and will likely have an uphill battle to even garner significant poll numbers to remain a viable candidate.

His announcement speech reflects his maverick status in Congress, especially since the Republicans obtained a Congressional majority in 2008.  “From the time I was Sheriff of King County to my time in the U.S. House of Representatives, I have always played by one rule in my political career: I will not be bought, bribed, or threatened into voting against the interests of the people I represent.”  Reichert criticizes the tactics of the House Republican leadership who stripped him from his committee assignments after he led a group of moderate Republicans against the flat tax proposal.  “We are the party of freedom and we stand for the right of every individual to work hard to achieve what is best for them.  The coercive tactics of our party’s leaders have damaged our reputation as defenders of American liberty and this mentality has been sanctioned by our current administration.”  He closes by preemptively responding to the concerns of cynics.  “I am not sacrificing my hard-earned money, my good health and time with my family to get my name in a history book.  A good American will risk his career for a worthy cause.  I am running to win the Republican nomination and win the White House.  The American people believe in freedom and hard work, individuality and accountability, and are firmly against extremism.  I am running a campaign based on these core American values and together, we will achieve the improbable and win this election.”

Mainstream Republicans immediately launch a media attack on Reichert.  Incoming House Majority Whip Jeb Hensarling, one of the authors of the flat tax proposal, says, “Dave Reichert is tarnishing his respectable record of public service by stirring up the pot for no apparent reason.”  Understandably, Democrats come to Reichert’s defense, with Former President Roy Barnes praising his quixotic bid on Good Morning America.  “You’ve got to admire a man who puts principle before politics,” says Barnes.  President Kyl remains above the fray, only commenting through his Press Secretary that he looks forward to an exchange of ideas during the primary. 

A poll released on January 5, 2011 shows that Kyl has no reason for concern.

RASMUSSEN REPORTS
Who would you vote for in a Republican primary?
[72%] JON KYL
[12%] DAVE REICHERT
[16%] UNDECIDED

[Yates]

“Right and Wrong”



On January 3, 2011, Bill Richardson formally declares his candidacy for President of the United States.  A former Secretary of State, Governor of New Mexico, Secretary of Energy, Ambassador to the United Nations, Congressman and businessman, Richardson is among the most experienced men ever to seek the office of the Presidency.  Ever since his resignation as Secretary of State, Richardson has been touring the nation, lecturing at universities, appearing on programs and writing, all stirring up speculation that he was planning to run for President.  Most notably, his book, “Right and Wrong,” which outlines his career in public service, was on the New York Times bestseller list for five straight weeks. 

Richardson’s 2008 Presidential campaign was moderately successful, obtaining a solid third place in New Hampshire in a large field.  However, he truly shined as Dick Durbin’s Vice Presidential running mate.  His significant experience allowed him to defeat then-Governor Tim Pawlenty in the Vice Presidential debate and he was an effective campaigner.  Some criticize Richardson for refusing to wait for Durbin to make a decision on whether to run before making his own.  However, Richardson enters the race as a top-tier candidate and, as the first major candidate to declare, the frontrunner.

His announcement speech is sharply critical of the Kyl Administration and evokes the theme of his recent book.  “Let me tell you something about right and wrong,” says Richardson.  “Forcing the brunt of federal taxes on working-class Americans is wrong.  Constructing internment camps reminiscent of dark eras we thought were long behind us is wrong.  Allowing Russia to commit genocide on its own people is wrong.  This administration and this President have gone about things the entirely wrong way and I am in this race to change course.  It’s time to do the right thing and lead the world by being an example of freedom and fairness.”  The speech surprises many due to its negativity, but immediately makes Richardson the darling of left-wing bloggers, writers and pundits.  Television anchor Rachel Maddow states, “Say what you want about Bill Richardson; you can’t say he doesn’t firmly believe he’s the right man for America.”

[Yates]

I really hope Durbin runs...that would certainly shake things up. And he came so close last time...

You will soon find out.

[Yates]

To Run or Not to Run


Senator Dick Durbin accepting the nomination in 2008.

The 2008 Presidential election was the closest in modern history.  Democratic nominee Dick Durbin has nothing to be ashamed of, having won 268 electoral votes and over 49% of the popular vote.  Had a few hundred votes been reversed in West Virginia, Durbin would be President.  Having not run for re-election to the United States Senate in order to pursue the Presidency in 2008, the former Majority Leader has toured the world and finally found relaxation in his retirement, with his work schedule consisting only of a few monthly meetings for corporate boards.  Yet, Durbin is haunted by his past goals which he still seeks to fulfill.

Often asked of his intentions, Durbin responds with the same ambiguity which foreshadowed his 2008 campaign.  He has kept in touch with supporters from across the nation, but particularly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  He regularly meets with former top members of his campaign team as well as former Senate colleagues.  Polls show that he would be the frontrunner for the nomination.  His family is urging him to proceed.  To top it all off, President Kyl, his opponent in 2008, is not particularly popular and many Americans are experiencing buyer’s remorse.  So why is Durbin not moving forward with a campaign?

Some analysts speculate that Durbin will not run since his 2008 running mate, Bill Richardson, is already in the race and is the current frontrunner.  Privately, Durbin regards Richardson as power-hungry and not particularly intelligent and feels that he would have been better off choosing a different running mate in 2008, despite consistent acclaim for Richardson’s performance.  Richardson’s entry into the race is only more motivation for Durbin to run.  It is another potential candidate who could deter Durbin from running.

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One early January evening in 2011, the phone in Durbin’s Chicago residence rings.  He answers and is intrigued to discover who the caller is.  “Dick, I’m going to do it,” says the caller.  “I wanted you to be the first to know.”  There is silence from Durbin, prompting the caller to continue, “We have worked together very closely.  If you have any reservations about my candidacy or my beliefs…”  Durbin stops the caller mid-sentence.

“I have been urged by friends and family to run,” says Durbin.  “I have the support, the money, everything I need.  All I needed to run was a reason – a sign that the people I fight for will not have a voice if I don’t run.  If you are in this race, everything and everyone I stand for is represented.  You have my blessing and my support.”

[Yates]

The next update will be tonight. 

[Yates]

A Tale of Two Senators


Jesse Jackson at the 1988 Democratic Convention

“My people deserve the nomination in 2012,” says former Presidential candidate and African-American community leader Jesse Jackson in a 2010 interview.  “Since the days of FDR, we have been the Democratic Party’s most loyal supporters.”  Jackson’s attitude reflects growing frustration among the black community: the fact that a black person has never won the Democratic nomination.  When asked if he had anybody particular in mind who was interested in seeking the nomination, Jackson answers, “Well, it’s a tale of two Senators…”

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Senator Harold Ford

Incoming Senate Minority Leader Harold Ford has long harbored Presidential ambitions.  His goal has motivated him to play an active role in the United States Senate, despite having only been elected in 2006.  His ascension within the Democratic Caucus has been one of the fastest in history.  With Barbara Boxer’s unpopularity and subsequent defeat for re-election, Ford is pressured into leading Senate Democrats, a role he never intended to seek.  His national recognition and reputation as a charismatic voice of reason has made him one of the frontrunners for the 2012 nomination.  

Despite his stature, Ford’s new leadership role in Senate presents problems.  To be an effective party leader, he would be required to abandon his plans to run.  Not only would wearing both hats cause him to perform poorly in both roles, he would be criticized for abandoning his fellow party members in Senate.  Any failed votes would be his fault and considering his party is now in the minority, there are likely to be many.  Privately, Ford tells his father, former Congressman Harold Ford, Sr., that he would like to resign as Senate Minority Leader and let newly elected Whip Patty Murray take over his role.  This would allow him to pursue his dream.  He knows, however, that such a move would be politically risky.  The young man’s star has risen and the time to make a decision is approaching.

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Senator Barack Obama

Senator Barack Obama’s improbable rise to national prominence began when he was asked by then-Governor Roy Barnes to give the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.  Since then, he has emerged as a leader within Senate and an extremely popular figure with young Americans.  He chose not to run in 2008 and supported his friend and mentor Dick Durbin from the start.  The question now is: will he run if Durbin runs again?

Obama’s support was critical in solidifying Durbin as the choice of the African-American community and helped Durbin clinch the nomination early.  In his mind, it is up to Durbin now to return the favor.  In a late 2010 interview on Meet the Press, Obama is asked by David Gregory if he would support Durbin in 2012 if he were to run again and, in addition, if he has any plans to run personally.  “As you know, David,” begins Obama, “I was a strong supporter of Dick’s from the very beginning in 2008.  I wish he were President now.  Having said that, I think Dick has had his chance to put his name forward for the Presidency.  He will always be a friend of mine, a mentor of mine and one of our nation’s leaders.  Speaking for myself, I am strongly considering a run for President in 2012.”  With the media focusing on a potential Durbin versus Obama primary, Obama knows he has to act.

One January evening, he calls Dick Durbin.  He informs him that he plans to run and Durbin graciously offers his support and confirms he will not be running of Obama is.  With one potential opponent out of the race, Obama only has one question on his mind: If Harold Ford runs, will the African-American vote be split?

NEXT: As more candidates throw their hats in the ring for President, the stakes of the election become higher as America’s allies turn to adversaries.

[Yates]

“It’s America, stupid!”



On January 10, 2011, Martin O’Malley becomes the first sitting governor to declare his candidacy for President in the 2012 election.  Governor O’Malley is the chairman of the Democratic Governors’ Association, a role usually regarded as a stepping stone to a Presidential bid.  In addition to being among the relatively few Democrats to survive the 2010 midterm elections, he traveled across the nation campaigning for Democratic candidates and made several allies.

His announcement speech focuses on his record as Governor of Maryland and previously as Mayor of Baltimore.  He portrays himself as a pragmatist, making specific reference to how he signed the largest tax increase in Maryland history as Governor.  “I’m not a politician who bases my course of action on poll numbers,” declares O’Malley.  “I’m a servant who based my course of action on what can most help the people I represent.”  His most memorable line comes near the end of his speech.  Referring to the current focus of American politics on foreign affairs, he says, “You will hear an awful lot from my opponents about my lack of foreign policy experience.  While I will stand to refute that, I believe that the most important experience for President of the United States comes from the roles I have held.  I’ve been a mayor who has fought crime and made a major city better to live in for families.  I’m a governor who has made the tough choices to allow government to better serve its people.  Whenever I hear a candidate focus only on foreign policy, I will reword an old line of a man I deeply admire and remind them of what the focus of this campaign should be: ‘It’s America, stupid!’  I will make this campaign about the hardworking Americans who increasingly feel ignored by their leaders.”

Reaction to the speech is mixed.  James Carville is the first of many to criticize O’Malley’s apparent pride in having raised taxes in Maryland.  “I’d recommend that the good governor ask President Mondale about using tax increases as a platform point.  Oh, wait a moment…”  Bob Schrum questions O’Malley’s tendency to admit his own weaknesses.  “Maybe it comes off as charming and frank, but I would never tell a candidate to give voters a laundry list of weaknesses they’ll be attacked on.”  However, both and others agree that O’Malley’s domestic focus will play well in Peoria and could help him in the early caucuses and primaries.  Yet, his insistence upon making the election primarily about domestic issues backfires sooner than anyone would expect.

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Ghost of Cold War Past

 
Vladimir Putin

Shedding any illusion that President Medvedev is Russia’s true head of state, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announces on January 11, 2011 that Russia would be withdrawing from final talks regarding the Nuclear Arms Reduction Treaty (NART).  Despite President Kyl’s non-interventionist attitude regarding Russia’s treatment of Chechnya, Putin insists that his nation must maintain an extensive nuclear arsenal to remain a military superpower.  In the same speech, he reveals that the Russian Military will undergo a three-year modernization with the intention of giving it technical superiority over both the American and Chinese militaries.  Later that week, the Russian Duma overwhelmingly passes a constitutional amendment creating Putin as the “Premier of Russia” and officially relegates President Medvedev to an advisory role with even less relative power than the Vice President of the United States.

Reaction across the world is negative.  British Prime Minister David Cameron condemns the actions as “deliberately provocative” and “a disturbing reminder of a time not long ago when East and West were at each other’s throats.”  Chinese Premier Hu Jintao, through a spokesman, questions the motivations behind the events, even implying they may purely be a power move by Putin.  President Jon Kyl, accompanied by Secretary of State John Bolton, criticizes Putin.  Kyl says, “One of the paramount goals of my Presidency was to increase and improve relations with Russia.  I am deeply disappointed that its leader has behaved not like the ally I thought he was, but like an adversary.  Let it be known that the United States is constantly modernizing its military and no American should fear a foreign power’s military capabilities compared to our own.”

Presidential candidate Bill Richardson takes the opportunity to criticize Kyl’s handling of the entire situation.  “We have a President who is essentially declaring an arms race,” says Richardson.  “Let’s not forget that the reason I quit as Secretary of State was because Kyl was babying the Russians and allowing them to commit gruesome acts on sects of their population in order to further our alliance with them.  Now, he’s done a complete turnaround and is attempting to draw Russia into conflict.”  Hearing of the news, Martin O’Malley suddenly wishes he had chosen his words far more carefully.

[Yates]

“Four Years Wiser”



Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry was the runner-up for the 2008 Democratic nomination.  His late entry into the race may have cost him early money and support, but also gained him significant momentum as many voters saw him as the fresh face to oppose frontrunner Dick Durbin.  With executive experience, relative youth and moderate views, Henry was a force in 2008 and has been considered to be one of the potential frontrunners in 2012.

On February 6, 2011, Henry declares his candidacy for President of the United States.  He had previously indicated that if he were to run again, he would enter early, and he has followed through.  His announcement speech is perceived as safe and underwhelming.  There are few notable lines and the speech is mostly biographical.  Political scientist Larry Sabato says of the speech, “Henry needs to realize he’s not the new hot commodity anymore.  He’s old news.  He can’t just expect to pick up where he left off; he’s gotta offer something new to voters.”  Largely based off of name recognition, however, Henry is polling high among the announced candidates nationwide.

MSNBC Poll
Democratic Nomination – Announced Candidates
If your primary or caucus was today, who would receive your vote?
[32%] Bill Richardson
[29%] Brad Henry
[8%] Martin O’Malley
[31%] Unsure

MSNBC also polls Republicans and finds that Congressman Reichert’s heavy campaigning and media blitz has paid off.

MSNBC Poll
Republican Nomination – Announced Candidates
If your primary or caucus was today, who would receive your vote?
[45%] Jon Kyl
[30%] Dave Reichert
[25%] Unsure

The numbers are highly concerning to Kyl’s team, who resolve to start the President’s active campaign earlier than anticipated.  The media is kept on guard, however, by an upcoming major announcement from Bill Richardson.