Does Obama open mic comment regarding missile defense seal Bibi's decision?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Bibi has to be thinking that if Obama is reelected, US missile defense promises to Israel may become null and void.  So, why would Bibi risk:

1) allowing Iran to have the rest of 2012 to bury its nuke operations
2) the prospects of a less willing partner in Obama in 2013

Seems to me, Bibi has no choice but to strike Iran this summer in order to wage war a) before Iran buries its nukes and b) while Obama still has to worry about the political ramifications of standing by Israel.

I'd say the chances of a Israeli strike on Iran between May-July 2012 is about 75/25.

[politicus]

Bibi has to be thinking that if Obama is reelected, US missile defense promises to Israel may become null and void.  So, why would Bibi risk:

1) allowing Iran to have the rest of 2012 to bury its nuke operations
2) the prospects of a less willing partner in Obama in 2013

Seems to me, Bibi has no choice but to strike Iran this summer in order to wage war a) before Iran buries its nukes and b) while Obama still has to worry about the political ramifications of standing by Israel.

I'd say the chances of a Israeli strike on Iran between May-July 2012 is about 75/25.

Provided Israel really wants to take that risk. With the Hezbollah missiles in Southern Lebanon they can expect to have their big cities shattered with thousands of dead civilians and any attack will only temporarily set back Iran's nuclear program - 2-3 years according to analysts I have read. A lot a Nethanyahu's rhetoric is most likely election year tough talk.
I hope the Israelis take out Iran's nukes, but I doubt they will run the risk.

[Insula Dei]

Hezbollah can't actually do that.

[politicus]

Hezbollah can't actually do that.

Huh? With an estimated 10.000-15.000 missiles they certainly can.

[Jacobtm]

I'd say the chances of a Israeli strike on Iran between May-July 2012 is about 75/25.

Here's to hoping that your war prediction is as accurate as your predictions of a Cain victory.

Hezbollah can't actually do that.

Huh? With an estimated 10.000-15.000 missiles they certainly can.

We saw in the last war Israel waged against Hezbollah that they are no match for murderous power of the Israeli military.

[politicus]

I'd say the chances of a Israeli strike on Iran between May-July 2012 is about 75/25.

Here's to hoping that your war prediction is as accurate as your predictions of a Cain victory.

Hezbollah can't actually do that.

Huh? With an estimated 10.000-15.000 missiles they certainly can.

We saw in the last war Israel waged against Hezbollah that they are no match for murderous power of the Israeli military.

Which is the reason the Iranians provided them with the missiles...

[bgwah]

lol. I've lost count of how many times jmfcst has predicted some war within a year and then been wrong.

[Insula Dei]

Firing a bunch of rockets from Southern Lebanon may plausibly result in some casualties in the North of Israel, but let's keep in mind that those rockets are pretty nigh impossible to aim with any sort of accuracy, especially be the semi-untrained militia that is Hezbollah, and that there's plenty of empty space in that part of the world. Plus, any meaningful damage would result in yet another Israeli intervention in Lebanon.

If 2006 and Operation Cast Lead learned us anything, it is that Hamas or Hezbollah when fighting with no holds barred, are no opposition to the IDF and are not in a position to do any meaningful harm to the Israeli population.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

lol. I've lost count of how many times jmfcst has predicted some war within a year and then been wrong.

can you provide examples?

also, in the ME, war is not a matter of if, but of when.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bibi has to be thinking that if Obama is reelected, US missile defense promises to Israel may become null and void.  So, why would Bibi risk:

1) allowing Iran to have the rest of 2012 to bury its nuke operations
2) the prospects of a less willing partner in Obama in 2013

Seems to me, Bibi has no choice but to strike Iran this summer in order to wage war a) before Iran buries its nukes and b) while Obama still has to worry about the political ramifications of standing by Israel.

I'd say the chances of a Israeli strike on Iran between May-July 2012 is about 75/25.

Other than funding, what does Israel need from the US in missile defense right now?  I can them worrying than the US will change course after the election and decide we can live with an Iranian bomb, but the Israelis have a home-grown missile defense program.