AR-Impact Management Group: Cotton+4
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Author Topic: AR-Impact Management Group: Cotton+4  (Read 815 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: February 19, 2014, 01:46:11 PM »
46% Cotton (R)
42% Pryor (D)

On Feb. 12, Little Rock-based Impact Management Group polled 1,202 likely Arkansas voters to ask their opinions on the candidates for U.S. Senate, Arkansas governor and Arkansas lieutenant governor. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%. Poll questions also included voter opinions on Arkansas’ private option plan.

http://www.thecitywire.com/node/31826#.UwT7Xs7viz4
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2014, 01:49:20 PM »
Probably about right.

I liked the CD breakdown:

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Pryor needs to at least win CDs 1 and 2. CD3 is too close IMO. Cotton is doing better than I thought in his CD4.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2014, 01:51:55 PM »
Crosstabs are in the link above (PDF file).

The results look believeable, even though I have never heard of this pollster before.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2014, 01:55:37 PM »
I think Cotton is too far right for ARK.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2014, 01:59:10 PM »
I would think Pryor would be doing better than that in CD2...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2014, 02:04:48 PM »
If you look at the pollster's website and their key people, they are probably a GOP-leaning pollster:

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2014, 02:06:26 PM »
Also, John Burmmett, the AR politics sage, says on Twitter that these guys are a Republican firm.
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windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2014, 02:07:54 PM »
Well, it's not over!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2014, 02:12:58 PM »
A good sign is that in the poll about an equal percentage of Democrats say they will vote as Republicans say they will (81% vs. 84%):

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The bad thing is that the Republicans have MASSIVE leads among Independents.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2014, 02:12:59 PM »
As with Ras, plausible results from an implausible pollster. Really hope TB polls again sometime in spring. It took till summer for MO to move decisively Pub (pre-Akin) last cycle.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2014, 02:14:54 PM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on February 19, 2014, 02:12:59 PM
Really hope TB polls again sometime in spring.

I have never polled AR so far ...























































Wink
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2014, 03:01:51 PM »
I really think like MO, with McCaskill, the state isn't automatic GOP. The Darr Scandle and Pryor's progun stance, makes him decisively better than Blanch Lincoln.
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