KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R. McConnell is too powerful, but he won't be in power forever.

Well yeah, eventually he'll die.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nate Silver thinks McGrath has a shot because of approval ratings and his status as a party leader. This is his job and he still hasn't learned from past elections.

[ElectionsGuy]

Easily one of the worst and most overrated Democrats out there, so I’m definitely looking foward to McConnell annihilating her:

https://twitter.com/Team_Mitch/status/1148554996037890048

Damn, that's devastating and it's only the first ad.

[ElectionsGuy]

I really love this quote : ''Yarmuth said it is a waste of time for Kentucky Democrats to court Trump voters, who delivered the president a 30 percentage point victory in 2016. He said the better pathway to defeating McConnell is running up huge margins in urban centers, such as his district of Louisville, and other Democratic strongholds such as Lexington.''

This strategy worked really well for Jim Gray.

Anyway, I think Rocky Adkins would have at least given McConnell a scare, but McGrath is going to do worse than ALG and Gray.

Worse than ALG is a pretty hard thing to fathom.

A Democrat getting less than 40% in KY is quite easy to fathom. Even against McConnell. And McGrath hardly inspires confidence.

Her campaigns off to a rocky start but don't count her off yet she nearly won a trump +10 district last year. I think Adkins is our best shot at the seat but McGrath isn't DOA just yet though this race is almost safe r

Actually Trump +16

So if she overperforms by as much as she did in the 6th district she'll only lose by 17.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

Let's compare:

2014-Sen: R+15.5
2015-Gov: R+8.7
2019-Gov: D+0.4 (a 9.1-point shift)

If we were to apply the 2015-2019 shift to McConnell, he would end up with a margin of R+6.4, which is very close to his 2008 margin of R+5.9. Yes, I agree that McConnell is still favored, but that kind of margin suggests that he could fall if he tried to sleepwalk to victory (so I would rate him likely rather than safe).

That both implies that McGrath (or whoever the Dems nominate) will be as much of an improvement over Grimes that Beshear was over Conway (which is very unlikely) and that there's even a chance McConnell will be caught "sleeping at the wheel" which we know will not happen. If there's one thing you can grant McConnell, it's that he knows how to win elections and he runs a savage campaign every time. So Safe R is still the most reasonable rating IMO.