Skill and Chance
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« on: September 29, 2012, 11:29:01 PM » |
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« edited: September 29, 2012, 11:40:03 PM by Skill and Chance »
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Bump!
Any new thoughts on this? I guess the given theory would be:
2008 to about 2016 = Great Depression
Cycle Begins
Bush = Hoover/Carter (complicated because he got a 2nd term...)
Obama = FDR/Reagan (plausible if he wins 2008-style again, as there are now fewer swing voters)
Romney = Wilkie/Mondale (with much closer popular vote, but similarly out of touch)
2012- Obama wins by roughly the 2008 margin
2013- New Recession
2014- Senate goes R
2015-16- Robust economic growth resumes
2016- Rural Dem (H. Clinton/Warner/Schweitzer) defeats Tea Party R
2017- Republicans drop opposition to universal health care, moderate on abortion
2020- Northeastern or Hispanic Republican defeats Rural Dem
2022- Dems finally win the House back
2024- Moderate Republican wins big against boring Dem
2022-28- Major bipartisan environmental/infrastructure legislation
2028- Southern Dem (Castro???) wins narrowly and then embarrasses him/herself, economy enters deep recession
2030 or 2034- Dems lose Congress in a disastrous midterm
The next cycle begins with a fire-breathing libertarian president in 2032 or 2036
Plausible?
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