$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Torie]

One idea is to leave the corporate rate alone, but allow a deduction for the payment of dividends, which would be taxed at the capital gains rate by the recipient. Right now C corps have an incentive to buy back stock rather than pay dividends, which is not good policy. This would eliminate that bias, and cause corporations not to hoard cash, and buy other companies, for tax as opposed to economic efficiency reasons.

[GeorgiaModerate]

McCain's a yes: https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/936261922764349443

[Pyro]

"Moderate Hero" McCain's is for this massive hand-out to the wealthy.
That's basically it for the debate, this will pass 52-48.

https://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/936263685290516480

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCain joins the Safe Support column:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. He surprisingly voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed, and some of his concerns have been addressed, but his previous statements of opposition have not been explicitly revoked and thus MAY still be valid.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 48 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 4 TOSS-UP

[The Other Castro]

Yeah it's kind of hard to see this not pass at this point. Once it gets to conference, it's pretty likely that some kind of compromise comes out, given what Republican members of the House and Senate have already settled for. Ultimate tax bill passage is probably happening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Please excuse my ignorance. What does it mean that the corporate tax cuts are "permanent"?
If the Ds control the trifecta in 2021 can't they just repeal them, through reconciliation or regular order?

[Pyro]

The question now is how the media chooses to frame this once it has passed.

CNN and MSNBC have focused so heavily on Trump's inability to get anything through Congress, that it feels as though they will commend him on a legislative win without speaking much to the criticism of the tax plan.

[Person Man]

What the chances this gets sucked into the shutdown situation? Is the lockout foolproof?

[The Mikado]

Please excuse my ignorance. What does it mean that the corporate tax cuts are "permanent"?
If the Ds control the trifecta in 2021 can't they just repeal them, through reconciliation or regular order?

They can, yes. "Permanent" just means that they don't expire on their own like the individual cuts do in 2027.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate is now voting on a motion by Sen. Brown to send the bill back to committee.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Please excuse my ignorance. What does it mean that the corporate tax cuts are "permanent"?
If the Ds control the trifecta in 2021 can't they just repeal them, through reconciliation or regular order?

They can, yes. "Permanent" just means that they don't expire on their own like the individual cuts do in 2027.

Thanks.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tax Foundation's analysis of the Tax Plan shows that the middle class will benefit from the tax plan. 

[Person Man]

You think passing this will make Trump at least modestly popular? (low-to-mid 40s)

[Matty]

Probably not 

Obamacare passing didn't give Obama a boost

Bush tax cuts didn't improve his ratings

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Brown to send the bill back to committee has failed by a vote of 48-52.

[Yank2133]

You think passing this will make Trump at least modestly popular? (low-to-mid 40s)

No.

The GOP tax plan isn't popular with anyone.

[BudgieForce]

You think passing this will make Trump at least modestly popular? (low-to-mid 40s)

Like Yank said, the tax bill is very unpopular. You dont get an approval bump from passing an unpopular bill.

[Matty]

It may give him a boost next April when the median household finds out they are indeed getting a tax cut

[BudgieForce]

It may give him a boost next April when the median household finds out they are indeed getting a tax cut

They'll probably be to distracted by the huge premium increases this bill is going to cause.

[Yank2133]

It is still mind-boggling how the GOP are going to lose at least one of their majorities because of their fetish to cut taxes for top earners.

A legit tax reform bill could have been widely popular and it would have put vulnerable Democrats on the defensive. The fact that pols like Manchin, McCaskill, Donnelly etc. feel no pressure to support this bill says it all.

5-10 years from now we are going to look back on this era as a missed opportunity for the GOP.

[Matty]

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[Yank2133]

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Yeah, I call bull****.

This sounds like wishful thinking from some GOP aide. No Dem is going to vote for this bill.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Are these sociopaths going to remove the individual mandate repeal in conference? I hope that was just a gimmick to drum up support.

[Landslide Lyndon]

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If Fox News says so...

[UncleSam]

I mean of course it's not out of the question, the bill is very likely to pass and, in the short term, will be extremely easy for Republicans to point to as both a legislative win and a way they are 'giving back' to middle America. This will be extremely popular in red states, which are currently represented by anywhere from 6-10 Democratic senators. So of course they might add the 53rd - 58th ish votes. None would be the 50th or probably 51st vote, but if Manchin or Heitkamp can avoid their constituents using this as an excuse to vote against them why not take it? The I'll effects of this bill, such as they are, won't be felt for a while, so there's not much point in the short term for vulnerable senators to oppose it unless they think they can beat it.

That's just smart politics.