US House Redistricting: Wisconsin

[cinyc]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

Are they just polling Republican-held seats?  Recalls work both ways.

[cinyc]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

Are they just polling Republican-held seats?  Recalls work both ways.

There is only one Democrat left who comes from a swing district in the Wisconsin Senate.

So did Kos poll that race, or is he assuming, like you, that all Democrats will be safe because Democrats are all that is good in the world and Rethuglicans are pure evil?

By the way, please delude yourself into thinking that all other 2008 class Wisconsin Senate Democrats are safe.  2008 was a very good year for Wisconsin Democrats.  And there are three in the 2010 class who are vulnerable, should it come to that a year from now.

[cinyc]

They only polled the Republican seats, because that's where the action is, no need to go off about it. The Republicans haven't even organized any recall efforts at this point and seeing as Republican stock is down in Wisconsin, the chances of any Democrats being recalled are low. You can't play a big offense when a big defense is the main event.

Incorrect.  There are recall efforts on BOTH sides.

Feel free to keep spewing uniformed, "Democrats good, Rethuglicans bad" Talking Points Memo talking points, though.

[cinyc]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

All 3 levels?

I'm not sure, but I don't see how they could do Congressional redistricting without the new ward data (since they would need to have zero deviation, while state legislative districts get a 5% leeway). Besides, they just need to do the state legislature right now to screw up the recalls.

Why is ward data even relevant?  The census block level data has been available for months.  That's what most states use to draw their maps, anyway.  Wards can be drawn from blocks, too.

[cinyc]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

All 3 levels?

I'm not sure, but I don't see how they could do Congressional redistricting without the new ward data (since they would need to have zero deviation, while state legislative districts get a 5% leeway). Besides, they just need to do the state legislature right now to screw up the recalls.

Why is ward data even relevant?  The census block level data has been available for months.  That's what most states use to draw their maps, anyway.  Wards can be drawn from blocks, too.

If I remember what I read a while ago, the Wisconsin is than the counties draw the wards during the summer and the Legislature draw the map the Fall after that, basing it on the new wards.

Well, if that's just the current law, it can be changed.  A past legislature can't bind the current one.