A Different Republican Icon

[OSR stands with Israel]

1976 DNC: Democrats nominate Hollings with high hopes of taking back the White House after 8 years in the Wilderness

Brinkley: With the convention officially now have started, NBC News can report to you that Senator Hollings has narrowed his Vice Presidential choice to 3 people : Senator Stevenson, Senator Muskie and Senator Bentsen. The choice will be made sometime tomorrow when official balloting takes place.

Major Speakers at Convention and their Speeches:

Former Vice President and Current DNC Chair Hubert Humphrey: Talks about the great society and talks about how its important not to only return to those policies but expand upon them. Also lambusts Goldwater's record on Labor issues

Senator Frank Church: Talks about the different ways the government should get involved to protect the environment

Senator Henry Jackson: Talks about need to have a strong US presence in the world, and a strong economy here at home and talks how that begins with having a strong middle class which our party helped create .

Senator Majority Whip Robert Byrd: Talks about need to keep the Democratic Majority in the Senate, and also talks about his friendship with Senator Fritz Hollings and the different types of bills Hollings has helped pass.

House Majority Leader Tip O'Neill : Talks about need to keep the Democratic Majority in the House

Senator Katherine Peden: Lambusts Republican Economic Policies and talks about need to elect Democrats to give disadvantaged people all across the nation regardless of race and gender an opportunity to succeed

Ohio Governor John Gilligan: Talks about why Democratic Policies will work better for the working and middle class in this nation.

Breaking News : Hollings names Maine Senator Ed Muskie as his running mate:

Brinkley: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is Senator Hollings has selected Senator Edmund Sixtus Muskie from Maine as his Vice Presidential pick.


Excerpts of Senator Ed Muskie speech accepting the Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination:


Muskie: Thank You, Thank You, it is an honor to be nominated by this great party as its Vice Presidential Nominee (Applause). Over our history our party has fought and achieved many great things for the working class of this nation from the 8 hour workday, to child labor laws, to the minimum wage, to social security, Medicare and Medicaid and it is time to expand upon that legacy(Applause). For the past 8 years , we have given the reigns of government over to Conservative Republicans and the fact is their policies just havent worked. Unemployment is higher today then it was on the day they took office , inflation is higher , programs the working class rely on have been cut , and it is time that we return to the policies of Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy and Johnson that created the greatest middle class in the history of the world (Applause).

Now there are many problems facing us today that we didnt face previously that we need to address espically on the environment and education. We need to not only expand protections for clean air and clean water, but regulate toxic substances as well and continue to  protect our national parks(Applause). On education, we must work to reduce the racial and gender gap in our schools so every kid as the same opportunity in life and that starts with making sure we can hire good teachers. To do that we must increase teacher pay to attract the best and brightest to the profession of teaching and while that is more controlled at the state and local level, we pledge that we will work with the states to make sure that can happen(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of Senator Fritz Hollings speech accepting the Democratic Nomination:

Hollings: Thank You, Thank You , it is an honor to be nominated by the President of Jefferson, Jackson, Wilson, Roosevelt, Truman and many other great leaders of our history and I accept your nomination(Applause). After 8 years of pro wealthy conservative elitist policies it is time for a change and it is time we once again have a government that puts the working man and women in this country first (Applause). In a time of recession and a stagnating economy, it is unacceptable that instead of expanding aid to help the people in times like this we are cutting it , it is unacceptable that we have a government that sides with corporations over labor constantly(Applause) and I pledge to you the people that I as President will not only reverse the cuts of the Goldwater years but also expand programs such as Medicaid(Applause) to make sure that poor families in our nation can have access to healthcare(Applause). We also will restore the power of labor in this nation because the fact is it was labor in this nation who fought for many of the things we take for granted today such safe working conditions , and the 8 hour workday(Applause).


We also must reform our education system to make sure teachers get the money they deserve to get, and make sure our kids our prepared for a changing world. To do that requires us to be vigilant and solve the problems that arise(Applause). It may not be an easy problem but it is something we can do because our future success will depend on  our kids today. Over the past 8 years many of these problems have been neglected while taxes for the wealthy have been cut so my belief is we reverse some of the cuts so we can invest in our future(Applause).


Now while we must be vigilant about our problems at home we must abroad as well. The threat of nuclear war clouds us every day and it will be a goal of my administration to eliminate nuclear weapons from the face of the earty(Applause). Now that does not mean we will unilaterally disarm, no we must work with our allies and our adversaries to make sure we can reach this goal(Applause). We also must also help promote democracy around the world using diplomatic means at the UN and also supporting freedom fighters as well(Applause). Remember it was just a little over 30 years ago we fought the Nazis and Japanese both who were lead by some of the evilest leaders ever and today West Germany and Japan are both thriving democracies because of the fact that President Harry Truman put in a lot of effort to help promote democracy there.

Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America



Hollings gets 9 point boost from convention, now leads Reagan by 10 points

Brinkley: Polling after the DNC shows that Hollings has gotten a 9 point boost from the convention meaning now he holds a 10 point lead overall and also according to the latest battleground map would have enough electoral votes to win the Presidency of the United States even if Governor Reagan sweeps all the tossups

Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 279 51%
Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/? 127 41%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 6%


Chancellor: Yup it was a pretty strong convention bounce for Senator Hollings but I doubt this lead will hold and after the RNC we probably will be back to a 2-3 point race.

Brinkley: I agree

[OSR stands with Israel]

1976 RNC: Republicans nominate Reagan in Dallas in hopes of expanding upon the gains made by Conservatives over the past 8 years

Brinkley: We are told that talks between the Reagan camp and the Ford camp broke apart so Congressman Ford will no longer be in the running for the Vice Presidential Nomination. The reason we are told it broke apart is that Mr.Ford wanted a more powerful role than a usual VP gets due to the fact that he would be giving up an already very powerful role to get it , but it was too much for Governor Reagan to accept. So the Vice Presidential choice we are told will be between Senator Baker and Mr.Bush.

Major Speakers at Convention and their speeches:

President Barry Goldwater: See Below

Vice President James Rhodes: Talked about need to continue the economic policies of the past 8 years and why pro business policies work

Senator Jack Kemp: Energized Convention about speech need to reduce the size of government, cut spending, and pass regulatory reforms to reduce the power of the bureaucracy

House Minority Leader Gerald Ford : Talked about need to give back control of the House to the Republicans and talked about things they accomplished during the 2 years where they did control the house

Senate Minority Leader Robert Griffin : Talked about need to give back control of the Senate to the Republicans.

Senator Richard Schweiker: Talked about his friendship with Reagan, and the way how Reagan brought both parties together to get many reforms passed in California

Treasury Secretary Milton Friedman: Explained why Supply Side and Monetarist Economic Policies are needed and how they help the economy grow


Breaking News: Reagan names Howard Baker as his running mate:

Brinkley: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is that Governor Reagan has selected Senator Howard Henry Baker Jr from Tennessee as his running mate .

Excerpts of President Goldwater's RNC Speech:


Goldwater: Thank You, Thank You. 8 years ago when I spoke to you at this convention we were told that reducing taxes in the way we campaigned on was just not possible, and so was reducing the size and power of the federal government but over these past 8 years we proves all the doubters wrong(Applause). Over the past 8 years , we have reformed the tax code and now for the first time in decades we can finally say our nation has a fair tax code(Applause), having cut wasteful spending from the budget(Applause), have given power back to states and local municipalities in the form of block grants(Applause), reduced the power of the regulatory state(Applause), reduced protectionist trade barriers(Applause), and abroad ended the war in Vietnam with honor(Applause) , signed a nuclear arms limitation treaty with the Soviets to reduce the possibility of nuclear war(Applause) and overall have made the world a more peaceful place than it has in a long time(Applause).

While there were some Democrats who joined me in this effort, Senator Hollings was not one of them. He opposed both our tax reform bills(Boos) , fought tooth and nail to stop our regulatory reform efforts(Boos),  and is supportive of pork-barrel spending projects(Boos). On the other hand California Governor Ronald Reagan reduced the power of the California government and gave it back to the people(Applause), reformed the welfare system(Applause), and fiercly opposed wasteful spending(Applause). I am certain that if we elect Governor Reagan to the White House not only will he be able to continue what we have done but expand upon them as well and that is why we must elect Ronald Reagan as our next President of the United States.

Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of Senator Howard Baker's speech accepting the Republican Nomiantion:

Baker: Thank You, Thank You. It is an honor to be nominated as the Vice Presidential nominee of this great party which has produced great Vice Presidents such as Hannibal Hamlin, Charles Evan Hughes, Richard Nixon and  our current vice President James Rhodes(Applause). For the past 8 years , I have worked in the Senate with President Goldwater to help pass tax reform, cut wasteful spending and reduce the size of the federal government(Applause). Now critics of our policies say they dont work but I want to ask you a question what would have been the policies put in place by the Democrats if they were in charge now. The fact is many in the Democratic Party were supportive of price controls which most economists say would have made the problem far far worse(Boos) .

During the times I would meet President Goldwater, I would also meet his good friend(Applause), Governor Ronald Reagan and over the many meetings we have , Reagan and I became friends as well. When Governor Reagan first became governor, there were many problems facing the state that many people considered to be very hard to fix: problems with law and order, a welfare system that was inefficient , and a regulatory state that did more harm than good but as Governor , Reagan fixed the problems facing the state of California and now California is in better shape than it ever has been in(Applause). Now people are doubting whether or not he can do the same as President, but his record shows he can and thats why we must elect him as our next President(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of California Governor Ronald Reagan's speech accepting the Republican Nomination:

Reagan: Thank You , Thank You. It is an honor to be nominated as this great party's nominee for President and I accept your nomination(Applause). There comes a point every decade that our nation faces a time for choosing, a time where our nation stands at its crossroads and we must choose on path or the other. One side offers a platform that seeks to go back to the policies that lead us into a quagmire in Vietnam(Boos), an unfair tax code that over burdens the American people(Boos), and overall believes that government not the people are what leads to economic growth(Boos), while on the other hand our side offers a vision where the people in this nation have the power not the federal government (Applause) and over the past 8 years we have delivered on that ideal. We have significantly lowered the tax burden for Americans all across the country(Applause), reduced the power of the regulatory state(Applause),and have given back power back to the states and local governments(Applause) who know how to deal with the unique problems facing their states and cities.

It is my view that in order for our nation to continue to progress we must expand upon the work of the last 8 years not go back to the failed policies of the 1960s(Applause). Our nation currently is recovering from a recession caused by an energy crises and while we started making progress on the issue by deregulating the energy industry, we must expand our trade relationships with energy-rich nations all around the world(Applause), and continue to remove unnecessary regulations that impede on our ability to produce oil here at home(Applause). Another problem facing our economy is inflation, and according to the data produced by multiple respected economics shows the problem is that aggregate supply remains very low and the problem with Democratic Economic policies is not only does it do nothing to address that side of the equation, they dismiss the idea of even adressing that side of the equation when that is clearly the problem(Boos). The reason is pretty simple, more and more regulations harm the ability of businesses in this nation to produce the supply it needs to keep up with demand and that leads to higher inflation . This is one major reason why we must pass regulatory reforms so unelected bureaucrats in Washington can have checks on their power just elected officials do(Applause).

Now while we face many issues to address here at home , we cant neglect our responsibilities abroad(Applause). Just a couple weeks ago I was asked to write a letter which will be put into a capsule which won't be opened up and read 100 years from now and it dawned on me that while we know nothing about how people 100 years from now will be like but they will know everything. They will know whether or not in this critical moment in history we stood up to the face of evil or if we surrendered to totalitarian communism and they will know whether or not we succeeded in preventing nuclear war or not. If we fail they , historians  from 100 years from now,  will write in history books condemning our generations failed to act and thanks to us they are facing the brunt of the consequences now and it is my intention to make sure that chapter is never written(Applause). It is my intention to make sure 100 years from now historians write in the history books that our nation stood up and eventually overcame totalitarian communism (Applause) and that we stopped even the possibility of nuclear war ever happening(Applause).

Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America



Reagan gets major convention boost and wipes out pre-convention 9 point deficit:


Brinkley: Governor Reagan just like Senator Hollings got a 9 point boost from his convention and now the race is tied once again. For people wondering why Hollings still doesnt have a 1 point lead then its cause polling pre convention showed Hollings 10 point lead down to 9 points .

Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 184 45%
Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 183 45%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 6%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Debate Schedule released according to minimum criteria required to qualify for each of the debates:

1st Debate(Domestic and Economic Policy):

Date: October 1st , 1976
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
Venue: Faneuil Hall  
Moderator: John Chancellor of NBC News
Minimum Polling Requirement: 5%

Vice Presidential Debate:

Date: October 8th , 1976
Location: Williamsburg, Virginia
Venue: Phi Beta Kappa Memorial Hall
Moderator; Robert MacNeil of PBS
Minimum Polling Requirement: 5%


2nd Debate(Town Hall):

Date: October 15th , 1976
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Venue: The Tabernacle
Moderator: Barbara Walters of ABC
Minimum  Polling Requirement: 10%


3rd Debate(Foreign Policy):

Date: October 22nd , 1976
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Venue:  Agora Theatre and Ballroom
Moderator: Walter Cronkite of CBS
Minimum Polling Requirement: 15%

Goldwater campaigns for Reagan in the South , Vice President Rhodes campaigns for Reagan in Midwest, and Secretary Nixon in the North East:


Brinkley: Over the past week President Goldwater, campaigned for Governor Reagan all across the south . He took shots at both Senator Hollings saying his votes on tax reform, regulatory reform shows that he is in favor of big government and praised Governor Reagan's record over and over again. Two of Reagan's Rivals in the primaries: Vice President Rhodes and Secretary Nixon both campaigned for Reagan in critical states in the Midwest and North East.


Chancellor: Governor Reagan has pretty much all the star power with President Goldwater, Vice President Rhodes and Secretary Nixon all campaigning for him. They are probably the 3 most well known politicians in the entire country which means they can camapign in more states than the typical politician endorsing a candidate can.


Hollings doing joint rallies with  Democratic governors in Key states:


Brinkley: In hopes of countering Reagan's strategy, Senator Hollings has decided to do joint rallies with Democratic Governors in swing states such as John  Gilligan of Ohio, Reubin Askew in Florida , Wendell Ford in Kentucky , George Wallace in Alabama , Brendan Byrne in New Jersey , and Thomas Salmon in Vermont.

Chancellor: Polls show that each one of these governors are more popular in their home states than President Goldwater, Vice President Rhodes and Secretary Nixon and all of those states up there are battlegrounds so it is important. As you can see he did not though do a join rally with Edwin Edwards in Lousinia who very may well as hurt him as Governor Edwards isnt popular in his state.

You can also see though while he did campaign with Governor Wallace, he did not give him the free reigns he gave to other governors on the list, due to his past history and we can see that in the speech Governor Wallace gave , he did not talk about busing or crime . He just talked about generic things like how Hollings has true working class southern values while Reagan is a Hollywood Elitist who will give everything away to the rich.



Report shows this campaign is on its way to break all time record for money spent on campaign spending:
 
Brinkley : As we know running for President is expensive, but this year is shaping up to be the most expensive of them all . With 6 weeks still left in the campaign and yet 60 million dollars has already been spent on this campaign and trends show that this campaign likely will break the 100 million dollar mark. The report shows that out of advertising expenses, 80% of that is going to television while only 10% is going to radio and newspapers each a stunningly new record.  

Chancellor: In my view the amount of money spent on television this year is astounding and shows the change in how campaigns work. Also one thing that I am worried about with television becoming the dominant form of how campaigns work is if soundbites and television advertisements sway more voters than detailed policies do. I hope people tune in to the nightly news broadcasts, along with the special one-hour broadcasts regardless of what network they watch because while the Conventions and Debates are important, they also are very skewed by narratives set by the politicians while us in the news media report on somethings that may be inconvenient to the politicians but are something that needs to be reported anyway.

Brinkley: I 100% agree John and to add on to that people may then say but wouldnt inconvenient information come out by their opponents and while some of the time that is true , some of the other time it doenst because that politician might have inconvenient information about themselves they dont want coming out so such information isnt released at all.  


Pre-Debate Polling Map :

Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 192 46%
Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 190 46%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 5%(Qualifies for Debate)

[OSR stands with Israel]

1976 Senatorial and Gubernatoral Election Preview


Senate Seats with Possibility of Flipping:

Chancellor: As you all know in this year's election, not only will we be choosing our next president, but deciding the balance of congress and electing Governors in many states. So for the senate lets first look at what the result would be if no seat changed hand. Just to let viewers no that map behind us is not the map but just the network testing out some of the new features we will be adding this year.

Vulnerable Republican Held Seats:

California : Former Interior Secretary Edwin Reinecke(R) vs Former San Francisco Mayor Joseph Alioto(D) - Tossup

Hawaii: Former Governor William Quinn(R) vs Representative Spark Matsunaga(D) - Lean Dem Gain

Maryland: Senator John Glenn Beall Jr.(R) vs Representative Paul Sarbanes(R) - Likely Dem Gain

Nebraska: Representative John McCollister(R) vs Omaha Mayor Edward Zorinsky(D) - Tossup

New York: Senator Jack Kemp(R) vs Former New York City Mayor John Lindsay(D) - Tossup

Ohio: Senator Robert Taft Jr.(R) vs Former State Senator Howard Morton Metzenbaum(D) - Tossup

Pennsylvania: Representative Bud Shuster(R) vs Governor Milton Shapp(D) - Likely Dem Gain

Tennessee: Senator Bill Brock(R) vs Attorney Jim Sasser(D) - Lean GOP Hold

Vermont: Senator Robert Stafford(R) vs Governor Thomas Salmon(D)- Tossup

Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats:

Michigan: Representative Donald Riegle(D) vs Former HUD Secretary George Romney(R) - Tossup

Montana: Representative John Melcher(D) vs Representative Richard Shoup(R)- Tossup

Missouri: Former Governor Warren Hearnes(R) vs State Attorney General John Danforth(R) - Lean GOP Gain

New Mexico: Senator Joseph Montoya(D) vs Astronaut Harrison Schmitt(R) - Likely GOP Gain

Rhodes Island: Governor Philip Noel(D) vs Former Governor John Chafee(R) - Tossup

Texas: Senator Lloyd Bentsen(D) vs Former Governor Paul Eggers(R) - Lean Dem Hold

Utah: Senator Frank Moss(D) vs Attorney Orin Hatch(R)- Likely GOP Gain

Wyoming: Senator Gale McGee(D) vs State Representative Malcolm Wallop - Likely GOP Gain


Brinkley: As people know from Republicans need 5 seats to take back the senate if they lose the Presidency, 4 if they keep control of it. Now if these numbers hold Republicans will gain 1 seat so they need 3 or 4 more senate seat so then they would need to sweep the rest of the tossup seats just for the Senate to be 50-50 which means to take the Senate they wither then need Governor Reagan to win or they will need an upset in either Hawaii or Texas . So right now I would say this chamber most likely will stay Democratic cause taking control of it wont be easy

Gubernatorial Seats with Chances of Flipping:
Chancellor: Now lets look at the Governors races, first the map entering tonight

Vulnerable Republican Held Seats:

Missouri: Governor Kit Bond(R) vs Attorney Joseph Teasdale(D) - Tossup

Washington: King County Executive John Spellman(R) vs State Representative Jim McDermott(D)- Tossup

West Virginia:  Former Governor Cecil Underwood(R) vs Former State Secretary of State Jay Rockefeller(D)- Likely Dem Gain

Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats:

Delaware: Governor Sherman W. Tribbitt(D) vs Representative Pete du Pont(R) - Lean GOP Gain

Illionis: State Secretary of State Michael Howlett(D) vs Attorney James Thompson(R)- Likely GOP Gain

Vermont: State Treasurer Stella Hackel(D) vs State Representative Richard Snelling(R)- Tossup

[morgankingsley]

5 percent qualifies for debates?

[OSR stands with Israel]

5 percent qualifies for debates?

Back when League Of Women voters used to host it thats how I think it was. Remember Anderson qualified for the 80 debates , Carter just refused to participate in a debate which had Anderson in it. That's, why the first debate was Reagan vs Anderson and 2nd, was Reagan vs Carter.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the First Presidential Debate:



Source: https://www.c-span.org/video/?27-1/democratic-candidates-debate

Key Moment 1:

Chancellor: Governor Reagan, as you know unemployment rate is still at 5.8% and has been above 5% for the past 2 and a half years and inflation is at 5.4% and most Americans still believe that the economy is not in good shape so if you are elected what would you do to help improve the economy

Reagan: The first thing we need to do is understand why we had this recession in the first place , and that is because of a massive drop in aggregate supply particulary in energy. To fix that problem we need to implement policies that incentivize businesses to increase their supply and the way we do that is by getting rid of unnecessary regulations that harm that process and pass a tax cut for small business all across this nation. Particularly in the energy field the fact is we need to increase oil production here at home and there too we need to target regulations that hamper our ability to do so and at the same time increase trade with our energy-rich allies. The problem is that Democrats for the past 6 years, ever since the topic of regulatory reform came up have done everything in their power to block which has hampered our ability to recover from this recession faster

Hollings: The fact is for the past 8 years we have had an administration that dramatically cut taxes on wealthy folks in this nation while at the same time they cut programs that working families need. This administration as also waged the largest war on working people in this country since the Hoover and maybe the Coolidge Administration with anti-union executive order after anti-union executive order, siding with management over labor not a majority of the times but in every single instance and most egregiously breaking up the coal miner strike because the Republican party's wealthy buddies were inconvenienced by it. Governor Reagan throughout this campaign has made it clear if he were elected he would be just President Goldwater's third term as he has defended every single one of this President's policies and even the so called areas where he would implement new policies, its just policies that this President tried to pass , it was just that congress would not go along with it.

Reagan: The fact is Senator Hollings and the Democrats in the Senate wrote a letter to the President 3 years ago asking the administration to implement price controls which now almost every nonpartisan economic group has said that if they were implemented unemployment would be almost 2 percent higher than it is today and same with inflation. Also I want to remind you when the energy crises began, most analyses showed that in most cases we would not have had the unemployment rate fall to under 6% until at least the fall of 1977 and right now in the fall of 1976 the unemployment rate is 5.8% which means the economic policies of the Goldwater administration have worked in speeding up the recovery. Is the economy good no, do we still have more to do yes but we have to build upon the work the President not do the opposite.

Hollings: Well in the letter we sent , we said to implement temporary price controls which would have expired within a few months. Even the Republicans said the problem with price controls come in the medium and long term not in the short run and the ones we asked to implement would not have lasted through the medium and long term.

Chancellor: Governor Reagan I know you would want to respond but lets let Congressman Anderson a chance to make a statement

Anderson: This exchange you saw here is exactly the problem with Washington over the past 10 years. Everything is the other side's fault, and the belief we should govern from an ideological sense and not a pragmatic sense and as President, I would change that. The fact is price controls are ridiculous but so is cutting taxes on the wealthy while cutting programs for working people. Now to solve this economic crisis, I would enlist economists from all sorts of schools so some supply sides and some Keynesians to take positions in the top economic jobs and come up with a solution to solve this crises. Now Governor Reagan and Senator Hollings should know better, the fact is as Governor Ronald Reagan raised taxes to balance the budget and Senator Hollings as Governor worked with both conservatives and liberals on areas such as education. Now since both are running for President hae abandoned that streak and gone straight for the ideological vote which is the last thing our nation needs.


Reagan: Congressman Anderson while its true some taxes got raised , the fact is overall over the past 10 years I have been governor taxes have been cut. An analogy I like to use is if you have $1000 dollars and you spend say $400 on rent while you spend $200 dollars on food you would have $400 dollars left over and now say the price in the grocery increased by 5% while your price of rent got cut by 4% well what that would mean is you now would be spending $384 dollars on rent and $210 dollars on food  which means you would have $406 dollars saved over which means despite the fact that the price increased in some areas, overall you saved more money since that price increase was offset by larger decreases in other areas

Hollings: The problems with your analogy is this administration has not done what your analogy claims, and a better analogy is they have cut the rent by 4% which while decreases your rent price by $14 dollars , also no longer cover the % of your overall water bill that they used to which means instead of just paying $5 a month for water you now have to pay $20 dollars a $15 dollar increase which means you actually pay more despite a cut in the rent.

Anderson: While I agree with you there Senator Hollings the problem with your proposal is that while the water bill in your analogy would become free , the landlord now has to charge more rent due to unnecessary new rules put in by the local bank . This is exactly why as President I will hire a diverse team of economists who would analyze the tax code to see which areas which areas we can raise taxes without seeing economic growth decline, in which areas we can cut taxes without having to cut too many important programs which in that analogies case would see the water bill go up. For programs I would also have them anaylze which programs would best help the economy if we increase funding because the solution is not black and white it is gray.


Key Moment 2:

Chancellor: Senator Hollings, throughout this campaign you have said the worst policy of the Goldwater administration was his policy towards unions. Why is it so and what are some of the policy changes you would make

Hollings: Well the fact is that unions are what built the middle class of this nation, before unions the workers in this nation were paid starvation wages, made to work in extremely unsafe conditions, were not given any time off and their kids had to work as well so the fact is if we wanted to protect our middle class we have to start by protecting our unions. This President had instead waged an all out war against our unions, which manifested most egregiously in the end of last year when the President intervened on behalf of the coal companies by breaking up a strike using threats of arresting strikers who continued to strike. When I am president, I will not only repeal every single anti-union executive order this President passed which includes the one he used to break up this strike, I will push Congress to pass laws which makes union protection stronger and limits the President's power to issue such executive orders in the first place.

Reagan: Senator Hollings the instance you cite as what you think is most egregious was done because that is what the law mandates. As a President, our jobs are to enforce the laws not interpret them which is the job of the courts or change them which is the job of Congress. I want to also comment as someone who lead a union , I 100% believe in the right of workers to form a union and the belief that they should be able to strike to get better wages. That can be true but it must be done legally and the fact is the coal miner strike was illegal, and it just isnt me saying this, or the President but the courts as well. The reason it was illegal was that strikes that violate the national security of this nation are not permitted and this strike clearly violated that part because a lack of electricity could easily be life-threatening to Americans all around the nation

Hollings: First of all the national security clause was not supposed to be used like that , it was supposed to be used in the literal fashion but if that is the case we will ask Congress to pass a congress that reclarifies that law.


Reagan: Senator Hollings I have a question , how does a strike which could result in life-threatening conditions for many of our people not be a national security issue. The fact is courts in the past rules that using this privison against the steel strike in 1952 was legal but somehow this isnt. The fact is Senator Hollings , courts have rules on this very issue for decades and its clear from every single one of them that not only was the President correct here but it was something he was legally obliged to do.

Anderson: May I jump in

Chancellor: Yes

Anderson: I think legally Governor Reagan was right , that Taft-Hartley had to be used to stop the coal miner strike. The question is was it is right because it isnt then as the President it is your duty also to ask Congress to repeal that law . My belief on the union is issue is we need strong unions to protect workers in this nation but we also need to realize that union can be corrupt too or ask for too much which then hurts the workers they are supposed to represent. As President what can be done though is we can propose to congress that we increase the minimum wage and cut social security taxes and more and that is exactly what I will do if I am elected President.

Hollings: I agree with Congressman Anderson that we do need to raise the minimum wage but cutting social security taxes would be the wrong decision as all that will do is harm the program. I believe instead we should pass a 5% tax cut for people in the bottom 2/3 of the income bracket and make it up by making people in the top 10% pay a little more in taxes.

Reagan: Senator Hollings and I agree for once tonight(Laughter) and I too agree that we nee to cut taxes for working and middle-class families. On the other hand, I disagree with the other point on the minimum wage, because research as shown that a raise in the minimum wage would not result in higher wages, because one that would just result in business raising the costs of their products which then would raise the standard of living thus wiping out the wage increase and also disincentive ize businesses from hiring many young people across the nation because of the fact they lack prior experience and now they would have to spend money on job training as well.

Anderson: While I very much respect the Chicago School of Economics, Governor Reagan and view it was a wonderful organization, it would be wrong to have it be the school represented in your administration. We need a diverse set of ideas and that requires us to find the best economists regardless of what school of thought they are from.

Chancellor: So here is a follow up , I know none of you would want to answer this right now but name 3 people who you would consider for Secretary of Labor if you are elected. To let the audience This is purely hypothetical and once you win you very well may select someone not in the top but just name some potential candidates you would vet for the job. Governor Reagan you first

Reagan: I would consider keeping current Labor Secretary Donovon in my cabinet , or also consider promoting the current undersecretary of Labor Laurence Silberman to the job and lastly I would also consider Economist Thomas Sowell for the job as well as well as some other well qualified economists as well.

Hollings: I would consider AFL-CIO President George Meany for the job , Texas Attorney General Ralph Yarborough , and lastly Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey if he is interested(Laughter). This list is not my final shortlist by any means and if I am elected my transition team will interview many candidates for this very important position.


Anderson: I also cant name 3 but if I have to I would consider New York Senator Jacob Javits, Former Maine Senator Margaret Chase Smith or former Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton. Now those are not the only 3 people I will consider by a longshot but I will definitely consider these 3.


Key Moment 3:

Chancellor: Congressman Anderson, both Governor Reagan and Senator Fritz Hollings have set out clear and concise proposals for what they believe should happen to the regulatory state while you have been vague on the issue. So if you are elected what would you do regarding that issue

Anderson: Well the reason I have been vague is that this isnt a black and white issue. Not all regulations are good or bad like my two opponents think. My belief is that regulations need to be clear and concise with very little ambiguity,  don't negatively impact our economy and do what we thought they do after implementation. To get to this goal, I believe we need to hire competent people with a diverse set of ideas running our different agencies so we can make sure regulations that get implemented are good.

Reagan: Congressman Anderson, I never said all regulation is bad. There are many regulations that are essential and no politician should ever even try to get rid of them but I want to remind people that most of the regulations that are considered good and essential were ones that were passed by Congress not a bunch of unelected bureaucrats. My biggest problem with the regulatory state is that we currently have  system where a bunch of unelected bureaucrats have the power to essentially create laws and what I want to do is make it clear that the only regulations they can create are regulations that enforce current law, not create new law. The fact is when congress creates bad law , you the American people have the power to fire them in the next election but when unelected bureaucrats create law, they are not held accountable to the people because they arent subject to elections and I as President will make it my number one goal to pass that reform. Some other reforms I would make is adding more review stages to the regulatory process to make sure the regulation implemented wouldnt have bad economic impacts .


Hollings: Once again Governor Reagan is parroting the language of the current President as that statement he just made was literally the same statements President Goldwater made over and over again for years . The fact is there is no evidence what so ever that the regulatory state is creating new laws and that talking point is just used by the Republicans because its an easy way to convince the American people to suport their agenda.

Reagan: There You Go Again(Laughter). Whenever you do not have a proper detailed response to the policy statments I put out, you always respond by demonizing President Goldwater in an attempt to score points without having to actually respond to the points made against your policies. Policies dont become good or bad just because someone who you dont like proposes it , and is our job as representatives of the people to judge policies on their merits and not the partisan implications.


Hollings: We did analyze that policy when it came in front of us in Congress and we clearly said no it is not good policy, its just that you, the President and most in your party have not moved on.

Reagan: The efforts to end segregation in this country lasted decades, and had many many failures so does that mean people should have given up their efforts to end segregation. The answer to that is obviously no .


Anderson: The problem with your plan Governor Reagan is that it would decimate many agencies ability to pass regulations that enforce the law as well. Problem with your plan Senator Hollings is that it does nothing to stop or even slow down the ability for these agencies to pass bad regulations.


Reagan, Anderson gain in polls after debate while Hollings slips:

Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 207 47%
Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 164 44%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 7%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the Vice Presidential Debate:


Key Moment 1:

MacNeil : If any of you get elected to the Vice Presidency, what type of role would you play in the administration.

Baker: Well there is no specific role I would play, as Vice President, I will be sitting in on almost every White House meeting with the President which means it will be my responsibility to advise the President on a wide variety of topic . As someone who has also been a member of the senate, I also will take a proactive role as VP to make sure our administration's policies get through that chamber.

Muskie: I would be a top advisor to the President, help him get his bills passed in Congress and help the administration especially on environmental issues .

Goodell: I would help a President Anderson when it comes to important appointments , and would also be helping him get his agenda passed

Key Moment 2:

MacNeil:  As you know its been more than 31 years since the end of World War II but despite the end of that war the world has at many times been at the brink of World War III. If any of you are elected what would be your policy to prevent such a disaster from even happening

Muskie: Robert, I think the issue of preventing World War III is the most important issue facing us today, and the first thing we have to do is get rid of nuclear weapons from the face of the earth. Doing so will require us to not only sit down with the Soviet Union but with every nation on this planet and coming up with a global agreement to ban all nuclear weapons and have an agreement come with teeth as well. Second we must strengthen global alliances abroad and organizations because they have brought us peace since WW2 and if we strengthen them .


Baker: Well I agree with Senator Baker , the goal should be the elimination of all nuclear weapons, I want to make it clear though that does not mean we should unilaterally disarm under any circumstances. We need to make sure the Soviets continue to follow through on their end of the bargain from SALT and need to use organizations such as the UN to pressure them to do so. Second, if we want to negotiate a good deal with the Soviets in the future we need to make sure we negoitate from a place of strength and not weakness and that means we need to increase spending on our military,  and also strength economic relations with our allies .

Goodell: I believe the most important thing we can do is come to sort of detente with the Soviet Union to help cool tensions. The quickest way for tensions to escalate to World War III in my opinion is from a war that beings a proxy war like Vietnam. In Vietnam only our troops got directly involved but if the Soviet troops had also gotten directly involved then their would have been a major risk of the war escalating to World War III so that is why some sort of detente has to be reached.

Baker: Senator Goodell , the reason the wars in Korea and Vietnam happened was due to an invasion by communist forces and if we didnt intervene all of Korea and Vietnam would be communist today. Second, the best way to avoid war is through strength, and that is why a President Reagan would increase funding for our military to make it clear to enemies of this nation that provoking war not only against this nation but our allies will not be worth it. Once we do that the amount of proxy wars around the world will decrease which will reduce the chances of it escalating to World War III.

Muskie: Senator Baker we did exactly what Governor Reagan is proposing during the 1950s and the fact is it did not stop proxy wars. Even President Goldwater who was one of the biggest hawks when he was a senator did not return us to 1950s era foreign policy.


Baker: Senator Muskie while G President Goldwater is a great President, that does not mean we believe he was correct on every issue or that nothing should be changed. Heck even if you ask the President himself , Im sure he would say he has made some mistakes just like every President even Washington and Lincoln have . The fact is Senator Hollings and you have run your whole campaign on demonizing this President rather than running on detailed plans and this is no different.

Muskie: Senator Baker I dont think any of us should come up with detailed plans because the fact is none of us have read a single National Security Briefing yet and it would not be responsible to create plans without reading the briefings first.



Key Moment 3:

MacNeil: As well all know, despite the fact we are now more than 22 years since the landmark Supreme Court decision Brown vs Board of Education was handed down which officially desegregated our public schools but despite that , study after study has shown that their remains to be a major racial gap when it comes to education. What will be your plans to close that gap, Senator Goodell you first.


Goodell: Well the first problem is , the job to fully integrate our schools has not been completed and it will be the goal of Congressman Anderson to complete that goal. Both Senator Hollings and Governor Reagan have come out against busing but the fact is that remains one of the best ways we can help integrate our schools is through busing and neither of my opponents have come up with a plan that does a better job on that issue. Next we also must increase funding for our schools to make sure students can receive the tools they need to succeed.

Muskie: Well I think Senator Goodell is mischaracterizing Senator Hollings stance on the issue. What Senator Hollings opposes is busing kids to schools miles away from their home as that is 100% counterproductive. If any public school district tries to segregate their schools again , I can tell yo our administration will crack down hard on that district and force them to reverse that decision.

What needs to be done is we must increase teacher pay across the board so we can  attract the best and brightest to the field of teaching. Also we must increase funding in poor communities so we can make sure that poor students can succeed in life as well and since college is getting more and more important , we will increase funding for financial aid so poor families can pay to help their kids go to college.


Baker: One thing we need to remember is that throwing money at a problem doenst solve everything.  The fact is if we want to prepare our students for a new generation we need to work with the state educational boards to make sure proper standards are maintained and we can adapt to a changing world. When it comes to reducing the racial gap , it must start with getting local communities getting involved in our children's education and we will do everything in our power to help facilitate it.



Congressman Anderson fails to qualify for second debate

Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 210 48%
Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 171 45%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 6%

[Tron1993]

Keep going with this!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep going with this!

I hope to get the next update  later this week, I just have been pretty busy lately so I have been unable to write the summary of the second debate but I should be more free to do so later this week. Anyway I am glad you are enjoying this TL, and I hope you continue too

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the Second Presidential Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Audience Member 1: Governor Reagan, you have been a huge proponent of free trade during your own career, and promise as President to expand trade with nations all around the world. How will you guarantee that those free trade agreements would not undermine non only companies here in the United States but the workforce as well.


Reagan: Well its simple, and that is free trade helps our economy grow not stifle it while protectionism actually historically has stifiled it. The most famous example of protectionism is in response to the great depression, our nation passed Smoot-Hawley tarrifs which was one of the most protectionist bills , Congress has ever passed and the result of that policy was disaster. Instead of helping the economy grow, it made the Great Depression much much worse .  The reason why free trade works better than protectionism is one it fosters an environment of competition which either results in the price of a product being driven down or the quality being driven up, and second is while currently, we may have an absolute advantage when it comes to producing some goods we may not have a comparative advantage  in producing those goods and trade allows us to benefit from that as well. Second is that free trade helps us improve relations with nations all around the world as the fact is close economic ties has proven to be one of the best ways we can have better ties overall.

Hollings: While I am also a supporter of free trade, we need to make sure its done correctly which it was for the first 20-25 years after World War 2 but has not under the current administration. The current administration has made every trade agreement so beneficial to large companies but has not made it favorable to the average American in this nation. We need to bring unions back to the negotiating table so we can make sure free trade deals benefit our workers as well.

Reagan: Senator Hollings that is just not true , the free trade deals passed under the past 8 years have benefited our workers. Free Trade helps lower prices which makes it easier for working class people all over the country to pay for goods.


Hollings: Inflation has gone up over the past 8 years so saying that this administration's trade deals have lowered prices is just not true

Walters: Moving on


Key Moment 2:


Audience Member 2: Senator Hollings ,  if you are elected what will you do to make healthcare affordable for poor families in this country

Hollings: The first thing I would do is expand Medicaid to cover more Americans, then the second thing we need to do is give people a $2000 tax credit for people who purchase health insurance to help Americans get covered for healthcare.

Reagan: I support increasing tax deductions for medical expenses, removing waste in Medicaid which then will allow us to cover more people without spending by a single penny. The fact is one of the biggest problems with government programs over the past few decades is how much gets spent on waste as all that does is detracts from the goal of programs to help people in this nation.

Hollings: Governor Reagan you cant claim you support eliminating waste and support the President's block grant program at the same time. The fact is the President's block grant program has made it more difficult not less for us to remove waste and I can pledge to the American people that I as President will not continue that program.

Reagan: Block Grants make programs more efficient not less, because of the fact states and local governments are given the ability to fashion the programs in ways to deal with the unique problems each state or city has. Our problems we are facing are not one size fits all which is why direct programs are not as effective

Hollings: The fact is poverty declined more in the 1960s then it has so far and that is because of the fact direct programs were more effective


Walters: Moving on



Key Moment 3:

Audience Member 3: With the amount of teenagers and young adults using drugs in this country, what is your belief on what we need to do to solve the problem

Walters: Governor Reagan you can go first

Reagan: The first thing we need to do is crackdown on the dealers in this nation, by increasing penalties for selling illegal drugs, as without these dealers the drug problem would be far far less. Second, our schools must teach our children why these drugs are terrible, and we need to help the culture from which leads to peer pressure to use drugs into peer pressure into refusing to use drugs.

Hollings: The first thing we need to do is improve our rehab system which allows addicts to get into rehab and kick their addiction. The next thing we need to do as Governor Reagan said is crack down on illegal drug dealers but what I think we need to be careful on is how the law is written so it actually impacts dealers and doesnt result in users get sentences that drug dealers get.


Reagan: The reason we have an addiction problem is due to illegal drug dealers, and until we get rid of that problem, we will just play a cat and mouse game as the number of users will keep going up and up.

Hollings: Yes but we need good programs that can help people who are already addicts get of their addiction and go after the drug dealers at the same time and that is what I will do as President.


Hollings moves up 1 point in polls after Debate:

Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 210 48%
Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 192 46%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 5%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of Third Presidential Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Cronkite: Senator Hollings , the issue of what we have to do with the Panama Canal has been debated over the past few years, with the President making it clear that he would not under any circumstance he would give up control of the Panama Canal . If you are elected, would you change that policy

Hollings: Walter, yes I would as I dont believe we should take anything off the table when it comes to negotiations. If we get good terms for giving up control of the Panama Canal and if the treaty is written in a way that we benefit more from giving up the Canal, then keeping it then yes it would make sense to give it up. Now whether or not I would give it up is a different story , because the fact is if I conculde that we would not benefit from giving up the canal then no I would not agree to such a treaty.


Reagan: I do not think giving up the Panama Canal is beneficial for the national security of this country. Recall that during World War II we used the Canal to move or ships quickly between the Pacific and the Atlantic which allowed us to effectively fight the war on both fronts , so giving up the Canal will make it harder for our military to fight a war on two fronts and that is something I will not give up. Secondly, the fact giving up the canal would be surrendering an American asset over to an hostile goverment.

Hollings: I never said I would give it up , unless I am sure we would benefit from the deal. If we dont benefit from the Deal, Governor, I would not give up the Canal.


Reagan: We might see short term benefits from it but in the long run giving up such a strategic asset would be a mistake for our nation

Cronkite: Moving on


Key Moment 2:

Cronkite: Governor Reagan, you were originally very skeptical on President Goldwater's attempt to open up relations with China. What is your opinion on that decision now and what are some changes you would make in your Presidency

Reagan: The reason I was skeptical originally on opening up relations with China was due to the fact that it was doubtful at the time whether the Chinese were actually serious about doing so or not. The past 4 years of negotiations have proven that they are serious about it so I do now support it as well but I have made it clear that I would only sign a deal with them if we get a guarantee that they will liberalize both their political system and their economy.

Hollings: I do support the President's efforts to open up relations with China and I think we need to continue attempts to open up relations and it is definitely in our interests to do so.  The reason it is in our interests to do so is because of the fact that having the Chinese more favorable to our side than the Russians will put a major check on their attempt to expand in Asia and the Pacific. Second if we open up relations with the Chinese , we will also help liberalize their entire system as well.


Cronkite: One Chinese Demand though to the US is for us to close our embassy in Taiwan , so if either of you are elected would you close the embassy in Taiwan.

Reagan: No I wouldnt and I would tell the Chinese that we would not close our embassy either .

Cronkite: Problem is critics say having the embassy open there means you are choosing sides on the Chinese-Taiwan dispute

Reagan: Well I disagree Walter and I would make it clear that we would stay fully neutral in disputes between the Chinese and the Taiwanese but the fact is we have interests in Taiwan that have nothing to do with China and removing that would be a major mistake.

Hollings: Like with Panama it depends on the agreement and I would dispute the fact that closing the embassy means shutting down all relations with Taiwan as we could still trade economically with them .


Cronkite: Moving on


Key Moment 3:

Cronkite: Governor Reagan you have called for a more aggressive stance in Europe and even suggested the US should go directly after many nations which are already communist which would be a change from traditional foreign policy. Many critics believe doing so will result in worse than ever relations with the Soviets so why should we do it

Reagan: Well its simple and that is because the Soviet Union is constantly trying to undermine capitalistic nations  all around the world, and many times use military forces against them which drags us into wars such as Korea and Vietnam. So when conflicts happen , one of these two things happen: Either the Capitalistic country falls  to the communists or they fail and the capitalistic country stays capitalistic and the communist country stays communist and what that means is communists are able to stay constantly on the offensive knowing there will be no major consequences for losing and it is high time we change that.


The fact is only once we do this , will the Soviets and communist nations all around the world be ready to actually come to the negotiating table and negotiate in good faith.


Hollings: Well the fact is that US foreign policy has worked over the past few decades and the successes in Vietnam and Korea prove that. What the Governor suggesting was tried before during the mid to late 1950s and what that did was lead to the Cuban Missle Crises so recent history has proven that those policies just do not work. The fact is we, unlike the Russians, are not an aggressive nation and I intend to make sure that does not change.


Reagan: Senator Hollings, you know why we succeeded in Korea and Vietnam. It is because we went on the offensive and that forced the North Koreans and North Vietnamese to come to the bargaining table and negotiate a deal that ends the war, while when for example we stayed on the defensive in Vietnam for the first 5 years of the war , all that did was lead to to an escalation of the conflict . When President Goldwater took office he destroyed the Haiphong Harbor which helped the North Vietnamese continue to fight the war for years preceding it and also fund guerrilla warfare using the Viet Cong. Critics of that plan for years believed destroying the harbor would escalate the war but the fact is it actually helped end the war.

Hollings: Once again Governor Reagan is repeating the talking points used by this President and the Republicans but what they all miss is that the turning point for the war was not when we destroyed that Harbor but during the North Vietnamese failure at Tet Offensive which led to Viet Cong getting significantly weaker and significantly reduced the North Vietnamese ability to be on the offensive. The Tet Offensive yes led to President Johnson losing politically as it ended any hopes he had of being reelected but the victory at Tet is what was the turning point of the war even when nobody thought so then.


Cronkite: Since we got to Vietnam, let me ask you a quick question: What is both your opinion on pardoning Vietnam Draft Dodgers

Reagan: I oppose any attempts at blanket amnesty but I would be willing to pardon some draft dodgers on a case by case basis

Hollings: I would review all the facts first which neither of us have since we arent the President and if the facts show that it would be beneficial for our nation to pass amnesty for draft dogers I will do so , if not I wont and then take each case on a case by case basis.


Cronkite : That marks the end of the debate


Hollings wins debate and pulls even with Reagan in polls:

Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 213 47%
Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 210 47%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 5%

[OSR stands with Israel]

1976 Election Night Preview

Brinkley: With less than 24 hours to go until the election , lets start this program by showing you what the current battleground map looks like

Senator Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Senator Ed Muskie(D-ME) 213 47%
Governor Ronald Reagan(R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker(R-TN) 210 48%
Congressman John Anderson(I-IL)/Former Senator Charles Goodell(I-NY) 4%


Brinkley: As you can see not much as changed since the last debate except a few more states being taken completely out of play. Now lets look at each battleground state


Connecticut: This one is a very close state with latest polling show both Governor Reagan and Senator Hollings tied and the main thing to watch is if Congressman Anderson because if he does well he could be a spoiler

New Jersey: The Northern part of the state is Republican and Northern Party Republican , some key counties to watch are Middlesex a suburban county where Reagan is expected to do well and Union another bellweather county in the state.

Ohio: This state all comes down to margins with Central and SW Ohio being very Republican with Cleveland and Eastern Ohio being very Democratic .

Illionis: This one is a competition between Chicago and the Suburbs because if Reagan can even manage to come out of Chicago Metro with a defict of less than 225,000 votes then downstate Illinois will have more than enough votes to deliver this state to Governor Reagan but on the other hand if the defict is more than 275,000 than the state will go to Senator Hollings. Anywhere between that and the state will be too close to call for many hours

Iowa: Des Moines is very Democratic and we believe that Polk county if Hollings is able to win by 15 or so points will win IA .


Missouri: St Losuis and Kansas City are Democratic Strongholds along with South East Missouri and again if Hollings can rack up large margins there this state will go to him. If not this state will go to Governor Reagan

Louisiana : New Orleans is Democratic while its suburbs are Repubican, and Baton Rouge is Democratic. Western Lousinia is also very Democratic but Northern and Central LA are expected to go Republican.

Alabama: The Birmingham Metro area is very Republican and is the source of Reagan's strength here along with Southern Louisiana. Some bellwether counties to watch are Madison County up North , Tuscaloosa County in the West and we will be also looking whether or not Governor Reagan can manage to rack up strong margins in counties such as Mobile and Baldwin and we believe he needs to win around 60% of the vote in both those counties if he wants to carry Alabama along with win both Madison and Tuscalossa. If he isnt able to do that then this state will be won by Senator Hollings



Chancellor: So now the question is how both candidates can get to 270 well it starts with winning one of Illinois or Ohio because if either Reagan or Hollings are unable to win either state then they must run the table in the remaining tossup states if they want to win this election and that is not looking very promising because currently in Iowa, Senator Hollings has had a consistent 3-4 point leas there and same goes for Governor Reagan when it comes to New Jersey. So for the sake of this simulation lets give Illionis and New Jersey to Reagan , and Ohio and Iowa to Hollings.


That would give Governor Reagan 253 Electoral votes and Senator Hollings 246 Electoral Votes. That leaves us with 4 battleground states on the map : Connecticut, Missouri, Louisiana and Alabama. 
Now Reagan will only need to win two of the 4 states while Hollings will need to win 3 of the 4 to take the presidency. So this race coudnt be any closer and its very likely at this point we are going to have the closets election we have had since the election of 1916 where California's 13 electoral votes decided the Presidency.


Brinkley: One more thing and that is that Governor Reagan's camp has not yet conceded Georgia to the Democrats while the Hollings camp has not conceded Florida over to the Republicans. So John if either camp is to make an upset in those states what are some of the keys .

Chancellor: Well in Georgia , Reagan must I mean Must run up extremely large margins in the Atlanta suburbs while keeping the deficit in Fulton County pretty low along with winning many counties in Rural Northern Georgia . That does not seem likely as Holling is performing pretty well in Fulton County and Reagan cannot afford that if he wants to win the state.


As for Florida well Hollings must start by racking up large margins in the Panhandle and then he must win counties such as Dade by more than 5 points and the problem is polls down there show Governor Reagan with the lead down and without Dade Senator Hollings just cannot win Florida.


Brinkley: People may ask then why isnt Senator Hollings targeting Texas instead of Florida and the reason is that close Democratic Victories down there usually come due to Democrats performing well in West Texas and with Reagan being the embodiment of a Western Candidate that just wont happen.



In my opinion I dont see any of the lean states going the other way.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Feel Free to make predictions for what you think will happen in election (with maps of course) if you would like

[Politician]

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Prediction : Reagan wins in 1976, loses in 1980 to some new deal/establishment Democrat (though I could see him winning term two. This is a OSR TL after all), then we have an epilogue explaining Goldwater's legacy as well as how the establishment of both parties are great and can never be replaced and in the modern day, we in the administration of an establishmentarian and almost everything is great.

Just a hunch from me

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 1)



7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: Good evening and welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 1976 Election. Tonight we will find out whether the Republicans will control the White House for 4 more years or will we elect our first President from the deep south since the Civil War. As you can see NBC News can already project that Indiana will be won by Governor Reagan and NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will also win the states of Virginia and its 12 electoral votes along with New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes while South Carolina and its 8 electoral votes will be won by Senator Hollings. Currently we are unable to make a projection in the states of Kentucky, Florida , Georgia, and in Vermont

Reagan 29
Hollings 8


Race:

White Voters: 89% ; Reagan 52%, Hollings 44%, Anderson 4%
Black Voters: 9% ; Hollings 87%, Reagan 10%, Anderson 3%
Hispanic Votes 1% : Hollings 65% , Reagan 31%, Anderson 4%


Gender:

Men Votes: 50% ; Reagan 50%, Hollings 46%, Anderson 4%
Women Votes: 50% ; Hollings 50%, Reagan 46%, Anderson 4%


Where People Live:

Urban Areas: 29% ; Hollings 59%, Reagan 38% , Anderson 3%
Suburbs: 44% ; Reagan 53%, Hollings 42%, Anderson 5%
Rural Areas: 27%; Reagan 52%, Hollings 47% , Annderson 1%


Income Level:

Less than $8000: 17% : Hollings 60%, Reagan 38%, Anderson 2%
$8000-$25000: 58% : Hollings 49%, Reagan 46% , Anderson 4%
More than $25000 25%: Reagan 57%, Hollings 38%, Anderson 5%


Age:

18-21: 9% ; Reagan 48%, Hollings 47% , Anderson 5%
22-44: 52% ; Reagan 49%, Hollings 48%, Anderson 3%
44-65; 27% ; Reagan 48%, Hollings 48%, Anderson 4%
Over 65; 12%: Hollings 51%, Reagan 47%, Anderson 2%


Chancellor: So Far no Surprise and our exit polls show that this indeed will be a very long election night . What will be interesting to know much Anderson will be a factor . Now we want to show you a new tool we have its called battleground tracker for senate races and heres the list


Senate:

Republican Held Seats:           
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont

Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming


Chancellor: Currently We do not have calls in any of these seats


7:30:

Brinkley: The polls have closed in 3 more states and NBC News can now project that Senator Hollings will carry North Carolina  while Ohio is too close to call

Reagan 29
Hollings 27

Chancellor: Again no surprise but we do have a governor call to make and that is in West Virginia we can project that Jay Rockefeller will be the next governor of that state and will win it with nearly 70%  of the vote which only looks small compared to the 72% number Hollings is projected to get there . This result, in my opinion, shows the constant problem for the GOP that only got worse in the past 4 years of the inability to do well at state level while Dems for example dont have that problem. Take Virignia, its been Republican longer than West Virgnia has been at the Presidential level and despite that Democrats do well there downballot and reason is Virginia Democrats have managed to be uniqually Virginian while in WV and states throughout the country the state parties are basically an extension of the national party.



Brinkley: Ok we will send it back to your local stations for the rest of the hour now

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 2)



8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: It's 8 PM in the east and NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will win the states of Florida, Oklahoma, Kansas and Vermont while Senator Hollings will win the states of Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts , Mississippi, Pennsylvania along with the District of Columbia. We are currently unable to make a projection in Alabama, Connecticut , Deleware , Illionis , Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee and Texas

Hollings 101
Reagan 64

Chancellor: So Senator Hollings has taken the lead with our first large batch of poll closings tonight but as you can tell from all the states we declared to close to call many of them are major states. So David how are the races in critical states such as Illionis and Ohio showing up


Brinkley: Well our exit poll in Illinois and particularly in Chicago Metro show that Senator Hollings will likely end the night up around 235,000-255,000 votes ahead which puts Illinois in the doubtful column as downstate might have enough votes to erase that margin or maybe not. Now 20,000 votes is a lot and I would say if that number is closer to the 235,000 number then Illionis would lean towards Reagan while if its closer to the 255,000 number than Illionis would lean towards Hollings.

As for Ohio well Reagan is performing very strongly in Hamilton County as he is getting around 60% of the vote there as well as perfoming very well in Central Ohio, but on the other hand performing very , I mean very poorly in Cuyahoga and Trumbull county where Hollings is getting around 60% of the vote , and very poorly in Appalachian Ohio too . So I would say both camps are getting the percentages they need in key areas but question is will they get the raw numbers so this state likely wont be decided until very deep into the night.


Chancellor: In Congress NBC News is now able to project that Democrats will keep control of the House and with around 251-262 seats which means it willl be a liberal majority as well.
Breaking News: Democrats keep control of House of Representatives
Chancellor: This also means that Tip O'Neil will be the next Speaker of the House



Now lets go over to Tom Brokaw for some updates on key senate races

Brokaw: Yes John and NBC News can now project that democrats will pick up a seat in Pennslyvania which will make Governor Milton Shapp the next senator and will also pick up Maryland - where representative Paul Sarbanes will unseat the Republican and hold on in Texas - where Senator Lloyd Bentesen will be reelected.

As for the Republicans NBC News can project that they will pick up a seat in Missouri as the Republican John Danforth will be the next governor of the state and hold on in Tennessee as Senator Bill Brock will be reelected

Senate:

Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont

Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Change in Overall Control so far: D+1

Brinkley: To remind viewers Republicans need either 4 or 5 pickups in the senate to take control of the chamber.

Jessica Savitch: We also have some key Governor Races to call and we right now can project that in Illionis- Mr. James Thompson the Republican will be the next governor of the state and in Deleware- the Republican, Representative Pete du Pont will be the next governor of the state as well

Change in Governor so far: R+1


Chancellor: So far everything is going as expected



8:30:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s


Brinkley: NBC News is now able to project that Governor Reagan will carry the state of Texas and its 26 electoral votes and Senator Hollings will carry the state of Georgia and its 12 electoral votes along with the state of Arkansas and its 6 electoral votes, and Deleware and its 3 electoral votes

Hollings 122
Reagan 90

Chancellor: The reason we made these calls is that some of the counties either Hollings needed to win in Texas and Reagan in Georgia did not go there way . So while some of western Texas wont close in another half an hour a few key counties from the parts that did close have come in and Reagan took them meaning we had enough evidence to declare him the winner there. In Georgia , while Reagan has performed really well in Suburban Atlanta he did not perform as well he isnt performing as well as he needs to in Fulton County and key rural counties up North and due to that we can call that state for Senator Hollings.

Brinkley: All right


Brokaw: And We have some more senate projections to make and that is Former HUD George Romney will win the Michigan Senate Seat marking a pickup for the Republicans while in Vermont the Democrat Thomas Salmon will unseat the Republican to become the next Senator of that state.

Chancellor: So now Vermont will have not but two Democratic senators while just two years ago they never in their history elected one.


Senate:

Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont

Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Change in Overall Control so far: D+1



8:52:


Brinkley: NBC News can now project that Michigan and its 21 Electoral Votes will be won by Senator Hollings while Tennessee and its 10 Electoral Votes will be won by Governor Reagan

Hollings 143
Reagan 100


Chancellor: We were able to call Michigan due to the fact that Governor Reagan will posting strong performances in counties like Macomb and Oakand was not able to make up for the landslide margins Senator Hollings got in Wayne County and stong performances in Northern Michigan.

[President Johnson]

My prediction:

Reagan wins 307-231

I'm unsure about Tennessee, but it has already elected Republican senators and by the time and I think Reagan pull this one off, just as Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 3)



9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: It is 9 PM in the east and with another huge batch of poll closings, NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will carry the states of Arizona , Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico , North and South Dakota, and Wyoming while Senator Hollings will carry the states of New York, Rhode Island , Minnesota, and Wisconsin . We are unable to make a projection in Lousiania

Hollings 209
Reagan 132

Chancellor: While this number may look like a pretty large defict remember all the states that havent closed their polls with the exception of Hawaii which is expected to go to Hollings and Iowa which is a tossup all the remaining states are expected to go Solidly for Governor Reagan including California which would give Governor Reagan 210 Electoral Votes so the election is still very close. So David how are some of the key states he needs to win like New Jersey going

Brinkley: Governor Reagan is currently up in Middlesex and Union counties and if that holds New Jersey probably will go into his column. On the other hand in Ohio it is looking like Senator Hollings is currently having the edge there due to Reagan's % in Hamilton dropping below the 60% he has to have if he wants to win the state and a very strong performance by Hollings in the Eastern part of the state . Connecticut is going back and forth between the campaigns but Anderson's 8% he has here is something the Reagan camp will not be too happy about.

Brokaw: In the Senate, we are now able to project that the Republican Mr. Malcom Wallop will unseat the Democratic Senator Gale McGee in Wyoming and the Republican Mr. Harrison Schmitt will unseat Seantor Joseph Montoya in New Mexico . So the Republicans so far have picked up 1 seat in the Senate , which is 3 or 4 less than then the amount they need to take the chamber

Senate:

Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont


Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Change in Overall Control so far: +1 GOP



Chancellor: I dont think that will happen as Republicans will have to run the table in the remaining seats for the senate to be 50-50 which means they will only control the Senate if Reagan wins the White House. That though looks very unlikely as Democrats have had a strong poll lead in Hawaii for the past couple weeks , had a slight lead in New York and Senator Taft is performing worse than Governor Reagan is in Ohio which means right now its unlikely he holds on. Now if they win all but 1 of those seats they still have one path left to the senate and that is that if Senator Harry Byrd decides to caucus with the Republicans.

All in all I would say the chances of Republicans winning control of the senate is less than 1 in 5 right now and is dropping very quickly. I would say even now Democrats still have a better chance of making a net gain than Republicans taking the senate at this point.


Brokaw: Yes I agree but it is still interesting


Brinkley: Now with us is former Secretary of State Richard Nixon . Secretary Nixon how are you feeling right now

Nixon: Pretty nervous as this is anybody's ballgame David and we still have 3 innings left to play(laughter). I think right now it looks like Governor Reagan will win Illionis and New Jersey along with the states you mentioned earlier which would give up 253 Electoral votes and I am confident about states like Missouri and Connecticut even though Reagan is down in both of those states right now

Brinkley: Any comparisions to 1960

Nixon: well this is a lot less stressful but I want to make one point pretty clear , unlike in 1960 when then Senator Kennedy beat me in a clear two way race, its clear this time that the only reason that Governor Reagan would lose tonight is due to Congressman Anderson and the margins in states like Connecticut and Missouri show it. Now I heard that he has been reelected to his house seat but I want to make things clear, if he indeed does cause Governor Reagan to lose, then he should not be accepted back in the Republican caucus next session .


Brinkley: Wouldnt he just join the Democrats


Nixon: I would argue this third party run of his right now is doing exactly that, working for the Democrats while acting like he is a "liberal Republican".


Brinkley: Ok thanks for coming on Secretary Nixon

Chancellor: Well while it is a reasonable assessment that most Anderson voters would prefer Governor Reagan if they had to choose the fact is it is still the candidate job to get those votes so I 100% disagree with the former secretary's comment.


9:48:


Brokaw: NBC News has another Senate Call to make and that is in Ohio Senator Robert Taft has been defeated by the Democrat Mr.Howard Morton Metzenbaum


Senate:

Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont


Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming


Net Change so far: None



Savitch : NBC News can also make another gubernatorial call and that is  State Representative Richard Snelling will be the next Governor of Vermont

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 4)



10:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s


Brinkley: Its 10 PM out in the east and NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will win the states of Idaho, Montana, Nevada and Utah while we are unable to make a projection in Iowa

Hollings 209
Reagan 147


Chancellor: No surprise , these batch of states are among the most Republican states out there . David how are things going in Missouri and Alabama two key states

Brinkley: Hollings currently as a 1.5 point lead in Missouri but more suburban counties are still to report as well as many precients  in Kansas City and St Louis so we still have at least 2 more hours before we can call this . In Alabama well that is even closer with both Reagan and Hollings continuing to trade leads and both Reagan and Hollings are doing about where they need to to win the state with Reagan winning  Mobile and Baldwin with around 60% of the vote but Hollings is getting what he needs in his key counties in rural Alabama and in the black belt as well so this will come down to pure raw numbers and it is very possible that Alabama could be the deciding state in this Presidential Election

Brokaw: As you all know some more key senate races have had their polls close and we currently can project that Republican Orin Hatch will be the next Senator of Utah by defeating Democratic Senator Frank Moss. We can also project that Senator John Melcher will be reelected in Montana and while it was considered a tossup just a month ago the debate between Melcher and Shoup ruined any chances Represenatitive Shoup had of winning and just a couple days ago Senator Melcher took a solid 10 point lead in that state.

So that means at this point the Republicans must not only sweep the remaining battleground seante seats, and win the Presidency to take control of the senate but they also will need independent Harry Byrd to caucus with the Republicans for them to take control. So is that possible, yes but is that likely no.

Senate:

Republican Held Seats:           
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont


Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming



Chancellor: So how is the senate race going in New York

Brokaw: Well right now this race is shaping up to also be one of the closest race in the country and even though Senator Kemp holds a pretty large lead this will drop towards the night due to the fact that the Democratic counties in the state have more precincts which take longer to report. So far though Senator Kemp is getting around  59% of the vote in State Island , 43% of the vote in Queens , 35% in Kings County(Brooklyn) along with a strong performance upstate where he is getting 46%  of the vote in Erie County and 53% in Niagara County and if those numbers hold Senator Kemp will hold on to a 1-2 point victory in New York but we still have many precincts left to report so there is quite some time left

Chancellor: Mayor Lindsay was attacked over and over by Senator Kemp for his role in the New York City Bankruptcy and while many voters didnt believe he should be the main person blamed for it , polls show it did hurt him among swing voters .


10:45:

Brinkley: Welcome back to our coverage of the 1976 election and right now we have two very major projections to make and that is that Senator Hollings has won Ohio and its 25 very crucial electoral votes while Governor Reagan will win New Jersey and its 17 crucial electoral votes

Hollings 234
Reagan 164


Brinkley: The reason we are able to make that projection is that almost 90% of the vote is in and Senator Hollings still has a 1% lead which we dont think the governor will be able to make up espically with Hamilton being all in and almost all of Central Ohio in so if anything Hollings lead likely will go up to around 1.5% there. In New Jersey, Reagan still holds a 2.4% lead and there isnt enough votes left in Essex County and Cambden county for that deficit to be made up. So Now Illionis becomes a must for Governor Reagan


Chancellor: Yes but I think at this point he is a clear favorite there as he still holds around a 70,000 vote lead there and while Chicago is more Democratic than Suburbs are Republican at this point that number seems to tall for Democrats to catchup in. The next big dump will be in half and hour and if the lead doesnt drop to 50k or something by then , well then the state will be called for Governor Reagan

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 5)



11:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: The Polls have just closed in the West and NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will win the states of California , Oregon and Washington while Senator Hollings will win the state of Hawaii.

Hollings 238
Reagan 224


Chancellor: Like I said earlier once the West came in you would see how close the election actually is and it likely to get even closer than this. Currently, it looks like this election will come down to just one or two states. David how is Iowa and Lousinia going

Brinkley: In Iowa Senator Hollings currently is holding a 16 point lead , and is doing very well in SE IA and eastern Iowa as a whole along with many counties in Central Iowa. On the other hand Governor Reagan is doing a very good job in Western Iowa and most of Central Iowa so he is is still in this even though Hollings is favored at the moment

Louisiana: Reagan has had an strong performance in the Suburban Counties in Louisiana and doing very well in Nothern and Central Louisiana as well  so at this point I would say he is favored here .


Chancellor: We are told we have projection for the senate

Brokaw: Yup right now NBC News can project that Democrats will keep Control of the Senate which means Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia will be the next Majority Leader

Breaking News: Democrats to keep Control of Senate


The Reason we can project that is NBC News can project that in Hawaii Representative Spark Matsunaga has won and has moved the Democrats up from having 50 seats to 51. Now we can also project that in Rhode Island the Republican Former Governor John Chafee has won so while Republicans wont be taking back the senate they still have a chance to make gains tonight.

Senate:

Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont


Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Net Change in Senate: R+1

11:20

Brinkley: We have a major projection to make and that is that Governor Reagan will win the state of Illinois and its critical 26 Electoral Votes.

Reagan 250
Hollings 238


Chancellor: Now Senator Hollings must , I mean must win one of either Missouri or Louisiana. Now the good news is that Senator Hollings is leading in Missouri and David how does Missouri look .


Brinkley: Currently Senator Hollings is holding a steady 1-1.5 point lead in Missouri and the areas governor Reagan can make up the deficit is continuing to drop and with parts of St Louis and Kansas City still left to be counted , at this point I would say Senator Hollings is in very good shape and if he is still leeading the state by around this margin when the next set of results in the state comes in at around midnight then we should be able to call this state for Senator Hollings.

Now lets do a What If Scenario: Lets for the sake of argument give Governor Reagan both Lousinia and Alaska and Senator Hollings both Missouri and Iowa which will then make the electoral vote count Reagan 263 to Hollings 258. Now it would seem that Governor Reagan is favored as he only needs to win one of the remaining states while Hollings has to win both Connecticut and Alabama, Senator Hollings is leading in both those states so the fact is we couldnt have a closer election then this.

Chancellor: What is interesting is now it looks very likely Governor Reagan will win the popular vote because while he is trailing right now by around 350,000 thousand votes, once California comes in then Governor Reagan will take the lead and their isnt much votes out east for Hollings to make that up. So its very possible we have for the first time this century a popular vote- electoral vote split. Now again it does not matter and if we did do election based on the popular vote then the campaign itself would be different so we dont know how it would have ended up then.

Brinkley I agree John

11:45:

Brinkley: We have a major call to make and that is Senator Hollings has won the state of Iowa and its 8 electoral votes

Reagan 250
Hollings 246

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1976(Part 6)



12:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: Its midnight in the east and NBC News can now project that Senator Hollings will win the critical state of Missouri and its 12 electoral votes while Governor Reagan will win Alaska and it 3 electoral votes

Hollings 258
Reagan 253

Chancellor: And with Hollings holding on to a .8% lead in Connecticut with around 95% we could say the state favors the Senator and same goes trump with Reagan and Lousinia where he is up 1% with 90% in.

Brinkley: Connecticut is a state where you could say the Anderson factor spoiled it for the Reagan and put Senator Hollings in the driver seat to take that state. If Connecticut costs Governor Reagan the election, there will be a lot of pressure on House Minority Leader Gerald Ford not to accept him into the caucus. We already see it with Secretary Nixon in an interview today with us calling for Congressman Anderson to not be accepted back int he Republican Party. Speaking of Congress we have two more projections in the Senate to make

Brokaw: Yes we do and the first is a big one and that is Former Interior Secretary Edwin Reinecke will win the California Senate race and the reason we can say that is NBC News with confidence is able to say that he will be within 5 points in Los Angeles County while a Democrat to win needs to win that county by at least 5 or more points. In Nebraska we can project the Democrat,  Omaha Mayor Edward Zorinsky and former Republican himself will be the next senator of the state. So that loss will forclose Republican hopes of even making gains in the senate because even if Senator Kemp holds on, the net result will be no change.


Chancellor: At this point , I would say Senator Kemp is likely he will be reelected. He has had a very strong performance in Buffalo , Upstate New York as a whole and done well in Queens and Staten Island that any Republican needs. It likely wont be called for at least another 45 minutes but I would say Senator Kemp is favored at this point and favored pretty heavily while at the beginning of the night Mayor Lindsay was favoted.


Republican Held Seats:            
California
Hawaii
Maryland
Nebraska
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Vermont


Democratic  Held Seats:
Michigan
Montana
Missouri
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Net Change in Senate: No Change


Brinkley: Now joining us is former Vice President and current DNC Chairman Hubert Humphrey. Thanks for coming on Mr.Vice President. So what are your reactions to these elections

Humphrey: I am certainly happy at the results in Congress tonight as we not only expanded our majority in the house by three or four seats we held even in the senate despite the map favoring us. As for my overall reactions well right now I am very nervous like all of us are but I am less nervous than I was half and hour ago. I think Connecticut very likely will be carried by Senator Hollings and while it looks like Alabama likely will have to go to a recount I think Senator Hollings likely will win that as well making him our next President.

Brinkley: What are some of the reasons you think of the close result tonight


Humphrey: Well I think a large amount Americans are tired of right wing ideological rule we have seen the last 8 years but at the same time things have gotten better over the last year which is what is saving the Republicans from a pretty large defeat tonight


Brinkley: Thanks for coming on


Savitch: We have two more gubernatorial projections to make and that is Governor Kit Bond has been reelected in Missouri and the Republican Mr. John Spellman has won the Washington Gubernatorial contest.


Overall change in control for Governorships: R+2




12:51:


Brinkley: The state of Louisiana a state which Governor Reagan has had a small edge all night long will now officially be in his column as NBC News can now project that Governor Reagan will win the state of Louisiana and its 10 very important electoral votes. This means the Governor will only have to win either Connecticut or Alabama to win the election.  

Reagan 263
Hollings 258


Chancellor: Yup he only needs to win either Connecticut or Alabama but he is trailing in both. Here are the current totals in Connecticut and Alabama


Connecticut(99% in):

Fritz Hollings 648,822 votes 46.57%
Ronald Reagan 638,127 votes 45.81%
John Anderson 97,071 votes 7.11%
Others 7,021 votes 0.51%

Chancellor: Looking at these numbers I think this state will go to Senator Hollings


Brinkley: Well your guess was correct because NBC News can now project that Connecticut and its 8 very important electoral votes will be won by Senator Hollings

Hollings 266
Reagan 263

Chancellor: Well so its down to Alabama so lets look at the results so far


Alabama(99% in):

Fritz Hollings   586,541 49.57%
Ronald Reagan 583,993 49.36%
John Anderson    11,707  0.99%
Others                   967   0.08%


So now we have the Secretary of State of Alabama on the line to tell us more. So Mr.Secretary of State when should we expect the final precincts in and where are they coming from .


Alabama Secretary of State: We should have them all in by 3 AM ET and the remaining precincts will come from Jefferson County.

Chancellor: Ok thanks



Brokaw: Before we send it back to your local stations for the next two hours we have one more call to make and that is Senator Jack Kemp will be reelected in New York . So that ends the Senate with the same composition as this last session 54 Democrats to 46 Republicans


Brinkley: That is indeed a major win and if Governor Reagan loses tonight , Jack Kemp will certainly be a top Presidential Candidate in 1980.

Chancellor: I agree and he very well might be the favorite to be the Republican nominee in 1980. Alright we will send it back to your local stations for the next two hours and we will be back at 3 AM Eastern to see who will have won Alabama and the Presidency.

[President Johnson]

Oh my lord, that's really close. Prediction: The winner will be a one termer because 1977-81 term is very rocky. The eventual loser might seek a rematch.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: Fritz Hollings Elected  President

3:05
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: We can now major a major projection and that is that Senator Hollings will be the next President of the United States and we can make that projection as the last remaining precincts in Alabama have come in and Hollings has won the state by a narrow 2100 vote margin which takes his electoral vote total from 266 to 275 which means that Ernest Fredrick Hollings will become the 38th President of the United States of America

Hollings 275
Reagan 263



Chancellor: And with Senator Hollings, that means that Democrats will now have control of the White House, Both Houses of Congress , a majority of Governorships and a majority of state legislative hosues. Now many Republicans such as former Secretary of State Nixon have already started blaming Congressman Anderson for this loss but that doesnt change the fact that they will now have almost no avenues of power left. To me the GOP also for the first time in decades wont have a clear leader as during the 1950s President Eisenhower was their leader, after their 1960 defeat Governor Rockefeller became their clear leader and since 1964 President Goldwater has been their leader . Now they wont have a clear leader as President Goldwater can no longer run for the White House, the primaries proved that Vice President Rhodes wont be their leader either and 1976 was very likely the last time Nixon's and Rockefeller could run for the White House and Reagan's defeat forcloses that path for him too.

Brinkley: I disagree John because while they dont have one clear leader, I think Republicans will be leader either will be Speaker Ford or Senator Kemp and with Speaker Ford's move to the right in recent years I dont think their that ideologically divided anymore either. So unlike President Goldwater when he first took office , President-Elect Hollings will be face an opposition party that is much more ideologically unified but on the other hand unlike President Goldwater in January of 69 , President-Elect Hollings will have a congress controlled by his party .



Chancellor: Well one interesting thing is for the first time since Eisenhower we likely will have a nation which is demanding pragmatism and moderation while for the past 16 years they gave a much more ideological mandate. From 1960-1968 we had arguably the most liberal presidency ever with the New Frontier and Great Society while the past 8 years we have had arguably one of the most conservative presidencies ever while now I feel like we will have more of a moderate pragmatic presidency as Senator Hollings has fought both liberals and conservatives in his career. We will see though as how his cabinet looks like but due I have a hunch this will be the case.

Brinkley: We just have news and that is that Governor Reagan has conceded the race and will give his speech at 3:45 AM ET while Senator Hollings will give his speech tomorrow morning at 8 AM ET as his crowd has already gone home due to the fact that its already past 3 in South Carolina while its  just 12:10 in California.