NY-20 Special Election

[Rowan]

No matter who wins, this race means little to nothing.

[Rowan]

No matter who wins, this race means little to nothing.

Ah. Tedisco is struggling then...

Actually, I think he is still favored, but one district doesn't mean anything in terms of national momentum.

[Rowan]

He was basically saying that there are more important things to worry about than Rush Limbaugh.

[Rowan]

The AP is reporting that a U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit could delay next week’s special election in the 20th CD.

Here’s the story:

ALBANY — A U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit could delay next week’s special election in the 20th Congressional District because military and overseas absentee voters might not have enough time for their votes to be counted.

The complaint says the Department of Defense has determined that overseas voters need at least 30 days to receive and return ballots. The DoD recommends at least 45 days.

In New York, a special election must happen within 30 days of the governor calling for it. The ballot for this vote was certified March 11.

Republican Jim Tedisco is running against Democrat Scott Murphy in the March 31 election.

The state Board of Elections is still reviewing the complaint. No court date has been set.

Calls to the Department of Justice weren’t immediately returned.

[Rowan]

I'm expecting a close race, +/- 3 points either way.

[Rowan]

Ugh.

[Rowan]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

[Rowan]

Stupid ad. Just stupid. I swear the GOP loves losing elections. Complete morons.

[Rowan]

My prediction(as of now): Murphy by 2.

[Rowan]

RowanBrandon's Election Rule #1:
Once a candidate starts commenting on public polls, said candidate will lose.

[Rowan]

Isn't that one of J.J.'s rules, Rowan?

It might be. But it fits perfectly.

[Rowan]

Tedisco doing "Miles for Middle Class" Night Shift tonight from 8 PM- 6 AM, according to his Twitter.

[Rowan]

What's "Miles for Middle Class"?

I think thats what Tedisco calls his tours of the district visiting residents.

[Rowan]

What's "Miles for Middle Class"?

I think thats what Tedisco calls his tours of the district visiting residents.

Wow... what a bad time to do it. No one's gonna be out from like 11pm - 6am.....

If he wanted to GOTV, he could've done it like, during the day.

No one ever said this guy was the brightest campaigner.

[Rowan]

Sources are telling me a 4-6 point win for Murphy tonight...

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

Where did you get those absentee numbers?

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2Q1MjdiOGQ2NTAyNGZmOTAyM2E5NGNhODkzZTg2NzE=

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

But a hundred votes is practically nowt when over a hundred thousand have been cast in total.

He would win though. That's my point.

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

That's reasonable, but it's just a fucking mindless guess as to what the breakdown will be.  Those numbers could easily be adjusted to other reasonable numbers that would show Murphy gaining.  If we're using the district as a  base, Murphy did better among Independents.  Remember that Murphy ended up winning on election night despite the fact that far more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.

How do we know Murphy did better among Independents? There's no confirmation of that. No exit polls were taken.

[Rowan]

Well, we do have normal polls, which count for something (exit polls are flawed too).  And we have the raw facts on the ground that the Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Murphy likely won Independents, either that, or did freakishly well among Republicans.  Either way, your assumptions about what leads to a narrow Tedisco win, while reasonable, aren't the only reasonable prediction out there.  I could slightly adjust your numbers to something else "reasonable" and Murphy would end up winning.  To just make a random crapshoot guess and then declare flatly that "Tedisco will win" is an exercise is ridiculousness

I didn't say he will win, I said using that projection he would win by 100 votes. Also the Siena poll had Tedisco up 45-44 among Independents...

[Rowan]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

[Rowan]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

I never said anything about that part of the count. Maybe someone else did, but I didn't. What I objected to was the actual recount portion.

[Rowan]

The Albany Project:

I'm hearing from a tipster in Washington County that, due to a reporting error on election night that has now been rectified, Scott Murphy just picked up a net of 198 votes. Says the tipster, the news "took the wind right out" of the Republican observers.

There's still thousands of absentee votes to count, but the bigger the cushion Murphy has before then the better.

This is huge news.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6198/ny20-wow-murphy-picks-up-198-votes-in-washington-county

[Rowan]

Confirmed. Murphy gains 198.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/murphy-picks-up-198-votes-as-county-fixes-errors.php

[Rowan]

How much remains to canvass?

A few more counties are still canvassing including the rest of Columbia where Murphy gained the 198. Saratoga still has to recanvass so maybe there is a big chunk of Tedisco votes out there somewhere.