2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[RogueBeaver]

As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Cabello run? Might be difficult since Chavez publicly anointed Maduro.. but who knows? The military will probably want their say too- and they're also divided.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles also wishing Chavez's family well, urging calm.

[RogueBeaver]

So who's acting president? Cabello or Maduro?

[RogueBeaver]

Now they're saying Maduro will take the reins and an election will be held in 30 days. Who runs on either side is the question.

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro's the government candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Seems like a lose-lose situation. They know what happened with the boycott a few years ago but the uneven playing field and sympathy make a victory unlikely.

[RogueBeaver]

The CW of Venezelists (?) is that 1/3 love him, 1/3 hate him and 1/3 are in the middle. Preaching to the choir a la 2006 (37%) won't cut it- you have to win a chunk of undecideds and yes, Chavistas for the keys to Miraflores. That's why Capriles swore up and down to keep the popular parts of Chavismo like the missions and various social programs, plus it helps to have a concrete record of his own in Miranda. The Chavistas would love nothing more than ammo to paint Capriles and the oppositon as a bridge to the past, as Dole might say.

[RogueBeaver]

Reuters reporting that Capriles has agreed to run.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT reporting that the electoral council has set April 14 as the date. I don't think Maduro and Capriles hit the trail, at least officially, till the mourning period ends next Friday. Plus Capriles has to temporarily leave the governorship again.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles will announce his decision tomorrow. Some speculation that someone else does it if he says no, say Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledesma or Gov. Henry Falcone of Lara. Depends if MUD wants to seriously compete or not, since Capriles is the only one who can do that.

[RogueBeaver]

The hesitation does make me wonder, but would they have offered it to him if they thought he'd decline? Regardless of what happens they need to run a decent candidate and no one know anything about the others.

[RogueBeaver]

How can he win with the playing field being so pro-govt plus the sympathy factor?

[RogueBeaver]

He's in.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-venezuela-election-capriles-idUSBRE9290E220130310

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmed. This will be a nasty, brutish and short campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21737742#TWEET654201

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro will have to deal with the security apparatus too, which isn't exactly monolithic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/world/americas/chavez-heir-faces-challenge-in-relations-with-the-military.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles has already accused Maduro of "using Chavez's corpse as a campaign prop." High mark of positivity? Still firmly grounded in political reality, said the odds are so stacked against him that it'll be like being run through a meat grinder. Given how short time is he'll have to stick to the swingiest areas.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/henrique-capriles-says-he-will-run-again-as-venezuelan-opposition-candidate/2013/03/10/d58609e6-89e6-11e2-a88e-461ffa2e34e4_story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro hits back, calling Capriles a fascist and hatemonger.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm following the opposition blogger CaracasChronicles on Twitter. According to him, official exit studies showed 30% of Chavez voters were true believers. 25% are softer- they liked and admired him a lot, but didn't venerate him. And Capriles' raw aggression was deliberate, partly because he concluded that hope n'change didn't work last time.

http://caracaschronicles.com/2013/03/10/liveblogging-hcrs-annoucement/#more-25439

[RogueBeaver]

He also talked a lot about how he's doing it for his supporters, most of whom are poor. Maduro is going to ram through a bill putting Chavez's name in the National Pantheon, which until now required a 25-year wait. Target date: April 14. CC suggests Capriles should support it, which is common sense. That way soft Chavistas won't get offended.

As for negative campaigning... read the blog, that's what his supporters want. I do agree that he should be more positive than negative, as does CC.

Here's the speech, for the Spanish-speakers here. FTR he actually does speak fluent English, but for obvious reasons never shows it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g00yV1TAo-g

[RogueBeaver]

The military has openly said that they will support Maduro and help in his campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

The last independent TV station, Globovision, has finally folded under government pressure and will be bought by a pro-government consortium. Sale will take effect post-election.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323826704578354811280619062.html

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles calls out Maduro for gay-baiting, "homophobia is fascism."

http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1015228

[RogueBeaver]

Moot now, he jumped in with both feet. So long as he does well, keeps the governorship and remains popular things should be fine. Lula lost 3 in a row before winning.

[RogueBeaver]

I know Venezuelan polls are worthless, but this one says Maduro leads by 15. Sounds plausible.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7CF1H0qx7p42gmCYFJCVAJ/Venezuelas-Nicolas-Maduro-has-poll-lead-over-Henrique-Capri.html

Capriles vows to halt the Cuban petrosubsidy.

http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Capriles-apoya-estudiantes_0_155986451.html