Most likely tipping point state in 2020

[here2view]

I think out of those options, from left to right in terms of Democratic margins it'll be:

MI -> WI -> PA -> AZ -> FL -> NC

Democrats win the first three, AZ is a tossup, FL Tilt R and NC Lean R. But PA puts the Democrats over the top. They're building off the 2016 map since I don't see Trump winning any Clinton states. PA gets them from 258 to 278.

[here2view]

I feel stupid asking as long as I've been here and as much of a statistical nut as I am, but I don't recall what the tipping point refers to.

It's the state that puts a candidate over 270 based upon margins of victory. So for example, in 2016 Trump finished with 306 electoral votes (ignore the faithless electors.) We can organize the states by margin of victory from biggest Clinton win to biggest Trump win. The closest Trump win was Michigan, if you take that away he's at 290. Next is Pennsylvania, which he won by .72%. Taking that away leaves him at exactly 270. Wisconsin, which he won by .76%, would be the "tipping point state" because it'd bring him from 260 to 270, aka a victory.

So it basically organizes the winner's states based upon margin of victory, and then eliminates the smallest ones until we get to a state that, when subtracted, crosses that 270 threshold.